Ian Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 looks like 3-6, most southwest of dc before warming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 sure looks like the high is drifting east The is going to go east, there is no block. We need the phasing to happen at the right time, far enough east but not too far. Its not perfect but its a better shot then we have had because the H5 is digging south of our lattitude finally. It could cut west of us, but at least it has a "chance". I like the setup though because as long as the northern stream vort doesn't miss the phase like the GGEM, there will be cold air initially so even with a costal hugger we would get a shot of snow to start. I know its not great but its a different setup and anything different is good to me right now. Ill take my chances flirting with the rain/snow line over another miller b scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 +4 850 to md border at 156 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 here comes warm air at 150 no doubt it does lose the ohio low look though but that hi is killing us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 1004 just se of dc at 162 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 +4 850 to md border at 156 if we can get a good track what I am hoping for is a scenario where lift holds onto snow a little longer, then we just dryslot as the warm air invades and lift is cut off. Nice front end Thump snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 1" plus qpf for va Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 looks like about 1" rain after snow to start i95 and east .. so 1.25-1.5" qpf total for some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 no doubt it does lose the ohio low look though but that hi is killing us its a LONG way out to worry about specific temperature profiles yet. I like that we have a storm, and its got a lot more southern stream mojo. Temps will be an issue but from this range the models could be way off on temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Day 7 850 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 big ole rain storm up the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The euro progression from 120-144 is laughable...the southern disturbance appears to basically stop and ultimately the north one phases with it...the southern piece goes from AMA to TXK from 96-120 and seemingly backs up thereafter...I have to think the Euro is way too strong on this....the weak 1005mb low coming up the coast we initially had been seeing is probably right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Sounds like anouther slop storm in the making to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 its a LONG way out to worry about specific temperature profiles yet. I like that we have a storm, and its got a lot more southern stream mojo. Temps will be an issue but from this range the models could be way off on temps. probably not with that hi way the hell east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 cold/dry, warm/wet, cold/dry This storm is quickly looking nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 its a LONG way out to worry about specific temperature profiles yet. I like that we have a storm, and its got a lot more southern stream mojo. Temps will be an issue but from this range the models could be way off on temps. i know you're going to have to cheerlead for a while on this one but the look on multiple models is not fantastic imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 IAD about 5inches of snow then an inch of rain. Its happened before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 big ole rain storm up the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 cold/dry, warm/rain, cold/dry This storm is quickly looking nasty. It is still 6 days out chill, if it looks like this on Sat then get nervous. One of these storms is going to change our luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 It is still 6 days out chill, if it looks like this on Sat then get nervous. One of these storms is going to change our luck. lolz. this is the first yr i can remember where storms in these ranges even got so much attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 its a LONG way out to worry about specific temperature profiles yet. I like that we have a storm, and its got a lot more southern stream mojo. Temps will be an issue but from this range the models could be way off on temps. I agree. If the southern stream gets stronger towards the event, we could end up with a southern closed 850 mb low type deal that tracks to the southeast of dca. I'll take my chances if we can get an 850 mb low track like that, given the storm would be amplifying as it approached. Often times our biggest snowstorms have the 850 0C line knocking on DC's doorstep as the low passes to the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 tracker verbatim biggest snow event of this season that rolls into the biggest rain event as well lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 lolz. this is the first yr i can remember where storms in these ranges even got so much attention. The only reason this is happening is because almost all the storms where nailed 7 days out last year so people for some crazy reason think that will happen again. In almost all other winters in our area that has not happened nor will it probably happen again for a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 No surprise here...very few of the GEM ensemble members look like the Op run at 120 hours...many have the big high over the NE http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=120&Day=0&RunTime=12&Type=pnm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 Look...we are getting good snow next week...all i care is about seeing snow fall so if it turns to rain...who cares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 No surprise here...very few of the GEM ensemble members look like the Op run at 120 hours...many have the big high over the NE http://www.weatherof...ime=12&Type=pnm that's pretty early tho... it seems like all the ops shift it offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 No surprise here...very few of the GEM ensemble members look like the Op run at 120 hours...many have the big high over the NE http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=120&Day=0&RunTime=12&Type=pnm Do their ensembles go out to 144?. Never mind i see it, no where near as pretty as 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 tracker verbatim biggest snow event of this season that rolls into the biggest rain event as well lol With the way this season has gone, wouldn't surprise me. Hey, bring it on. At the very least, we'll have some exciting dynamic weather. I'll look for positives, we already have plenty of people looking for the negatives. Snow to start! Yay! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I agree. If the southern stream gets stronger towards the event, we could end up with a southern closed 850 mb low type deal that tracks to the southeast of dca. I'll take my chances if we can get an 850 mb low track like that, given the storm would be amplifying as it approached. Often times our biggest snowstorms have the 850 0C line knocking on DC's doorstep as the low passes to the southeast. The Euro does more than knock on the door, it kicks it down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 No surprise here...very few of the GEM ensemble members look like the Op run at 120 hours...many have the big high over the NE http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=120&Day=0&RunTime=12&Type=pnm Not bad. Plenty of them have it farther west than the OP. It may slip out still in the end, but it would give us more time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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