winter_warlock Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 LOL DGEX.... I also noted the bagginess of the cost as well on the nam. It could argue for a slight of the coast track.. but it could get captured as well by the upper level low... so far as the nam goes i dont take the nam at 84 hrs seriously , and DGEX? lol does anyone even take that model seriously? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 so far as the nam goes i dont take the nam at 84 hrs seriously , and DGEX? lol does anyone even take that model seriously? DGEX is more for kicks just to see what solution it will spit out next. But what would you expect when you are using the 84 NAM that's 24 to 36 hours out of it's good range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The GFS isn't budging this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The GFS isn't budging this run. Looks like its doing a Miller B? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 06Z really has a different look to it then what the other models are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
insanegrenade Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The GFS isn't budging this run. Is this bad news? What does it exactly mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 It means it does not even have a low develop in the gulf. Its sticking to its guns. Then there is the nam... Upper patterns.. GFS Nam.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Looks like its doing a Miller B? Pretty much. Is this bad news? What does it exactly mean? Same as 00Z. All snow for much of the MA but of course way lighter on QPF. It means it does not even have a low develop in the gulf. Its sticking to its guns. It is darned consistent--no doubt. Sooner or later one of these solutions is going to cave big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Looks like a miller B or a hybrid pops off the outer banks then pulls up to the OC area, stalls for about 12 hours then heads out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
insanegrenade Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Thanks for the explanation everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 It is darned consistent--no doubt. Sooner or later one of these solutions is going to cave big time. Can I take the NAM's Gulf low with the GFS's high location? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The GFS 00Z is a money run to me and figured todays was just a hiccup especially when I saw the ensemble. But after seeing the 06Z you have to wonder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Eastern shore and southern Jersey do well. Edit: If you like a lot of rain. Surface temps are real iffy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Can I take the NAM's Gulf low with the GFS's high location? This forecast is ridiculous. I am betting against the GFS for a multitude of reasons--but if it pulls off a coup--it will be one of the more epic ones in a long time. The GFS ensembles actually trended closer to its op--and the ECM ensembles are in decent agreement with its op although I will add the GFS 0Z mean is a little W of its op. Either way--these separate model data assimilation systems are sampling something vastly different as they are completely different as early as 36-42 hours into the forecast. Amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 This forecast is ridiculous. I am betting against the GFS for a multitude of reasons--but if it pulls off a coup--it will be one of the more epic ones in a long time. The GFS ensembles actually trended closer to its op--and the ECM ensembles are in decent agreement with its op although I will add the GFS 0Z mean is a little W of its op. Either way--these separate model data assimilation systems are sampling something vastly different as they are completely different as early as 36-42 hours into the forecast. Amazing. I agree. My parents wanted to know today of what type of event is going to be come for the early or mid week. I let out a small laugh and literally said. I don't know. I told them I favored a rain event for this area (Richmond... most data is rain ...) but models were not in agreement with the type of storm or evolution of the storm at all. I did not get overly technical with them. It's just baffling the differences between the GFS is compared to all other guidance on how the storm plays out. Its not as easy to say.. oh well model A has storm tracking from point A on the gulf to point B somewhere up the coast.... while model B has it go from some place down in the gulf as well to come other point along the east coast. Sure if we throw out the GFS we can do that... But gfs would literally be... well... a trough comes down... and eventually forms a low along the outer banks area... but it does not come from the gulf.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 FWIW the 06Z DGEX LOL ...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 FWIW the 06Z DGEX LOL ...... Already laughed at it once. Look how warm the surface is on the DGEX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Already laughed at it once. Look how warm the surface is on the DGEX. lol yep, but its the dgex so you gotta laugh at it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 Might be time to pull for Gfs.... .7 qpf in dc all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Someone want to take a stab at the SREF? Does it seem maybe like the GFS to anybody? 24 hr precip at 87 hrs - http://www.nco.ncep....ef_x24_087s.gif 500 mb chart at 87 hrs - http://www.nco.ncep....ef_50h_087s.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Found this cool product, NWS RNK doing a video update on the storm. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DadkHBkinYA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
varicweather Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Just as others have mentioned in past storms this year, the lack of sampling of the vorticity energy in the N.Pacific has given the computer models fits in coming up with solutions. It appears many of the players will be on the shores of B.C. today. http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?ir_central_enhanced+today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Might be time to pull for Gfs.... .7 qpf in dc all snow I believe I was the first to say that and was scoffed at by a few. I'm pulling for whichever model shows snow, and that would be the GFS and no other model at this time. It is hard to believe, however, that it will pull the coup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qaanaaq Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Found this cool product, NWS RNK doing a video update on the storm. Very nice product from the NWS....I like that Blacksburg office. Sterling could take a few pages out of their playbook. thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I believe I was the first to say that and was scoffed at by a few. I'm pulling for whichever model shows snow, and that would be the GFS and no other model at this time. It is hard to believe, however, that it will pull the coup. Never scoffed at that and I'm more in your camp now. I don't need to gamble at this point. .7 qpf all snow in this winter is HUGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Never scoffed at that and I'm more in your camp now. I don't need to gamble at this point. .7 qpf all snow in this winter is HUGE. I'd take the .7 too but with such model mayhem, it's hard to take any of them seriously at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Never scoffed at that and I'm more in your camp now. I don't need to gamble at this point. .7 qpf all snow in this winter is HUGE. interesting how the 3Z SREF's were uber progressive and didn't really have a storm (except in Canada north of the Great Lakes!-where have we seen that picture before?) 9Z will be out shortly and, if also progressive, may signal a change on the NAM from over-amped to under Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dobie Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I'm going to be a positive thinker and go with a trace for D.C. Metro with a Miller B running over us again. Anything more and I'll get a gift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 9zSREFs 9z SREFs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 posted a new thread given the post count here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.