mitchnick Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 this euro run thought would give a big snow to areas that are in the snow drought also like central PA so how does seasonal trend account for that? first, you're wrong check ABE mos, mainly rain second, I am talking and have been talking all along (check my old posts) about DCA/BWI areas just to our east have had their share of snow as you know look, you can try to pick it apart, but until it snows and proves me wrong its all just model progs vs. reality Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Then why are you logged on at quarter to 2 a.m. if there is nothing to follow or see here? addiction to winter wx same as everyone else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 h5 is fairly similar in track to 12z, about 6 hrs faster and a little weaker overall. closes off slower and passes a little nw of earlier thru central va toward 108. by 114 it's pretty well stacked with the low and things look similar around here for the rest at h5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 first, you're wrong check ABE mos, mainly rain second, I am talking and have been talking all along (check my old posts) about DCA/BWI areas just to our east have had their share of snow as you know look, you can try to pick it apart, but until it snows and proves me wrong its all just model progs vs. reality I am not talking about allentown I am talking about Harrisburg area, State College, down into central WV. These areas have been in the snow drought and this euro run does give them snow. Surface temps are around 33 degrees for most of the storm in those locations with 850's below 0. They could say the same thing right now, that the seasonal trend is for them to not get snow, but somehow their seasonal trend does not apply because its only Baltimore and Washington that count as if the atmoshphere has a grudge against us right now. You had a good case originally but you are starting to sound a little overboard now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 h5 is fairly similar in track to 12z, about 6 hrs faster and a little weaker overall. closes off slower and passes a little nw of earlier thru central va toward 108. by 114 it's pretty well stacked with the low and things look similar around here for the rest at h5. we need cold air that's not something that will magically show up on the scene so we need a perfect track to pull it off and that's all there is to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 goodness....this thread=crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Frankly, if the GFS holds tomorrow and the Euro caves it will be time to panic over a possible Miller B that will probably undoubtedly screw D.C. If the GFS trends toward the Euro and it holds tomorrow, it will be time to panic over Rain and warm air. If they both hold serve, no need to panic until Sunday. If after Sunday they are still at loggerheads, it will be time to panic regardless. Until then, enjoy there is just a storm that could end up as anything still at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 we need cold air that's not something that will magically show up on the scene so we need a perfect track to pull it off and that's all there is to it im not terribly optimistic imby. it's one bad solution or the other it seems. unless i believe the nesis 5 ukmet track, and that's lol on a few levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I am not talking about allentown I am talking about Harrisburg area, State College, down into central WV. These areas have been in the snow drought and this euro run does give them snow. Surface temps are around 33 degrees for most of the storm in those locations with 850's below 0. They could say the same thing right now, that the seasonal trend is for them to not get snow, but somehow their seasonal trend does not apply because its only Baltimore and Washington that count as if the atmoshphere has a grudge against us right now. You had a good case originally but you are starting to sound a little overboard now. I have never spoken of any area other than DCA/BWI and you saying I'm going overboard doesn't make it true and it has nothing to do with an atmospheric grudge it has simply to do with the fact that some winters it just doesn't snow and this seems like one of them to me and to try to go 90+ miles away from DCA/BWI to prove your point is going overboard as their climo has nothing to do with ours and it is very common they do have a decent winter and we don't look, time will tell; and not you nor anything other than a significant snow will convince me otherwise (and I really do wish I will be convinced) enough, I'm going to bed! g'nite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 man some people really got spoiled last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 anywho the euro is BRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR in the long range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I have never spoken of any area other than DCA/BWI and you saying I'm going overboard doesn't make it true and it has nothing to do with an atmospheric grudge it has simply to do with the fact that some winters it just doesn't snow and this seems like one of them to me and to try to go 90+ miles away from DCA/BWI to prove your point is going overboard as their climo has nothing to do with ours and it is very common they do have a decent winter and we don't look, time will tell; and not you nor anything other than a significant snow will convince me otherwise (and I really do wish I will be convinced) enough, I'm going to bed! g'nite you had some legitimacy with your seasonal trend argument for a while but now you seem to be implying that the seasonal trend theory of yours only applies to DC and Baltimore. So are you saying that seasonal trends do not matter everywhere else. IF it has not been snowing in central PA it does not mean anything and they can easily get a snowstorm. If it has not been snowing say the upper midwest, that would make no difference and their luck could change. But for DC and Baltimore the seasonal trend is uber important and if its not snowed by January 20th that means pack it in? This makes no sense, if there is a seasonal trend issue and if so it would need to be applied universally not selectively. If you are selectively applying this theory only where you want that is not scientific and is simply your own personal bias at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 man some people really got spoiled last year last yr is definitely fooking with almost everyone in different ways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 DC people need to realize that 60+ inches isn't climo. Real funny to watch these threads though. Ya'll need a real hobby. JonJon....keep raking it in, see you in 2 weeks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 DC people need to realize that 60+ inches isn't climo. Real funny to watch these threads though. Ya'll need a real hobby. JonJon....keep raking it in, see you in 2 weeks! Who's talking about exceeding climo? At this point we are talking about reaching halfway to our season average before February hits. Given how cold it's been this winter basically non-stop since Dec. 1 -- remember that wild front that moved through on Dec. 1 that ushered in winter? -- I think we've got to take our shots between now and early to mid February. After that, I would be shocked if an early spring doesn't set in for late February. And, despite talk about March being potentially promising, I wouldn't bet on it. Besides, I can rarely get excited watching a March snow fall that you know very well will melt the next day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazeKing Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 DC people need to realize that 60+ inches isn't climo. Real funny to watch these threads though. Ya'll need a real hobby. JonJon....keep raking it in, see you in 2 weeks! Sustained cold isn't Climo either. This is the worst of the worst...sustained cold with no snow. If we get no 4"+ snow the rest of the winter, this will probably be one of the worst winters i've faced. At least in most crappy winters, there is warm air to somewhat enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Who's talking about exceeding climo? At this point we are talking about reaching halfway to our season average before February hits. Given how cold it's been this winter basically non-stop since Dec. 1 -- remember that wild front that moved through on Dec. 1 that ushered in winter? -- I think we've got to take our shots between now and early to mid February. After that, I would be shocked if an early spring doesn't set in for late February. And, despite talk about March being potentially promising, I wouldn't bet on it. Besides, I can rarely get excited watching a March snow fall that you know very well will melt the next day. after last winter, DC/Balt should not expect a 12+ snow for 3 years. Ya'll just had the winter of the CENTURY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 from the philly thread on the euro ensembles ORH_wxman, on 22 January 2011 - 03:00 AM, said: Low is due east of SBY at 108h....850 line is offshore SE of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 from the philly thread on the euro ensembles ORH_wxman, on 22 January 2011 - 03:00 AM, said: Low is due east of SBY at 108h....850 line is offshore SE of LI. Its a good track for DC/BWI...looks like it would go right over HSE and then about 50-75 miles due E of SBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 also on the ensemble "Definitely tamer than the 12z ensemble....by quite a bit. Also much faster. The 12z run at 132h had the low over ACY...hugging the coast. 00z never gets that far W and also has the low SE of ACK at 120h (same verification time as 12z 132h) " "Its all snow for DC/BWI....only the southern Delmarva around SBY and down to SE VA (RIC and SEward) would have rain issues. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Its a good track for DC/BWI...looks like it would go right over HSE and then about 50-75 miles due E of SBY thanks, my sources are not updating tonight for some reason... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Wow its 5 degrees here right now. one thing I keep thinking is how badly the euro busted on surface temps during the ice event last week. It was off by about 9 degrees here. I just have a hard time seeing the surface moderate as fast as the foreign models are trying too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Wow its 5 degrees here right now. one thing I keep thinking is how badly the euro busted on surface temps during the ice event last week. It was off by about 9 degrees here. I just have a hard time seeing the surface moderate as fast as the foreign models are trying too. This is the first time I have agreed with the Euro ensemble--and that small threat of a farther E track and all snow that I mentioned earlier has some good backing now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Nam looks amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Yea.. nam is definitely going to send this either along the coast or even somewhat inland based off the 500 mb level. Definitely with the Euro/GGEm camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Can see the CAD at 78 but look at what the easterly winds do at 84 and start knocking that feature down. Know its at the height of the day but you hate seeing 40 in Balt and DC just before an event without any high to the north or west. Guess that's when you hope for radiational cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Really pulling the moisture in from the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Yea.. nam is definitely going to send this either along the coast or even somewhat inland based off the 500 mb level. Definitely with the Euro/GGEm camp. Thought the same thing when I saw the set up. But looking at the pressure fields I have to wonder about the bagginess that's off the southeast coast. Wouldn't that argue for a slightly more eastern track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 For what it's worth the DGEX does take the low more easterly then what you would assume from the 84 NAM. In fact once it hits the outer banks it takes it out to sea. Edit: For those wondering about snow forget it. Has little to no snow anywhere with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 LOL DGEX.... I also noted the bagginess of the cost as well on the nam. It could argue for a slight of the coast track.. but it could get captured as well by the upper level low... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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