Fozz Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Feb 88 I got 12 inches with temps at 38 It was Feb 1987, Jihad, and I don't think it was any warmer than 34-35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Generalities are fine anyway. Even the mighty Euro can't nail temps at 100+ hours. having a 984 low on this side of the bay seems problematic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 Leesburg 12 inches...Hagerstown 22? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 overall its a good run, but make no mistake the euro is TORCHING the surface, gets DCA to +5 and stays above +4 until the end of the storm. Even all the way back to Westminster surface is +3 during most of the storm. Not sure what to make of that. 850's imply a big snow to rain to snow but surface says all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 even IAD per Euro MOS is +3.7 at 0Z Thursday despite -4C 850's really? that's awful. it's basically done then. do you have 18z wed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 having a 984 low on this side of the bay seems problematic Maybe it will be a MIller B screwjob by tomorrow and we can all say, "Next!" in unison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 even IAD per Euro MOS is +3.7 at 0Z Thursday despite -4C 850's freezing line is way west out to pitt at hr 114 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 it depends...the 850's crash the surface does not so if you are using 850's its actually like a foot of snow backend. But the surface temps stay at like +3 until after the precip shuts off. THis of course seems wrong given the dynamics a weenie word...i know... DYNAMICS...there is no way that we are +3C with heavy precip and 850's crashing to the east at the end of january...and we get rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pojrzsho Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Plenty of time to iron out temps....ingredients are there and we are 4 days away....good enough for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Leesburg 12 inches...Hagerstown 22? I doubt it verbatim this run even Hagerstown has surface temps of +1.6 to +1.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 really? that's awful. it's basically done then. do you have 18z wed? Who cares about surface temps right now. Euro tourched us last week when we had mid 20s and ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Plenty of time to iron out temps....ingredients are there and we are 4 days away....good enough for now The track is still not ideal. It needs to be further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I doubt it verbatim this run even Hagerstown has surface temps of +1.6 to +1.9 I highly doubt that. Besides the euro is always to warm. It has my low at like 15 tonight. Which will be about 10 deg to warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Plenty of time to iron out temps....ingredients are there and we are 4 days away....good enough for now problem remains the High in NE moves out so there is nothing to hold cold air in and the only source of cold air is dynamic generated cold not very efficient and will likely be insufficient if Euro is even close to being right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Tomorrow's runs are going to be epic. GFS and Euro are currently vastly apart.. Lets hope they converge in the middle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 personally, I prefer the GFS solution at least its snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 Euro is outlier with temps and precip. Gggem/ukie/nogaps blend ftfw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 personally, I prefer the GFS solution at least its snow Lol but only 3-5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Who cares about surface temps right now. Euro tourched us last week when we had mid 20s and ice i hear ya but with stale cold, a drifting high and a giant low 35 feet from my doorstep... mmm, the gfs miller b looks OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 personally, I prefer the GFS solution at least its snow Eh, no way. We would get a dusting if the GFS came to pass. I would rather take my chances with a thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 problem remains the High in NE moves out so there is nothing to hold cold air in and the only source of cold air is dynamic generated cold not very efficient and will likely be insufficient if Euro is even close to being right I thought the problem was the seasonal trend and this was going to be a miller b screw job where we get no precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I have to admit, I do not recall the Euro ever printing out so much qpf for BWI during the winter I guess it did last year, but I didn't have access to MOS then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 i hear ya but with stale cold, a drifting high and a giant low 35 feet from my doorstep... mmm, the gfs miller b looks OK It will be a dusting by Monday, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Can anyone post the H5 charts, whats the h5 track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I have to admit, I do not recall the Euro ever printing out so much qpf for BWI during the winter I guess it did last year, but I didn't have access to MOS then 2+ QPF is pretty hard to come by in the winter. Once you get later in the season it becomes a bit easier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I thought the problem was the seasonal trend and this was going to be a miller b screw job where we get no precip? the seasonal trend is to deny us snow I have made that very clear the Miller B's have screwed us and the Christmas hybrid did as well the Euro runs today have been no better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 the seasonal trend is to deny us snow I have made that very clear the Miller B's have screwed us and the Christmas hybrid did as well the Euro runs today have been no better this euro run thought would give a big snow to areas that are in the snow drought also like central PA so how does seasonal trend account for that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 It will be a dusting by Monday, though. yeah probably Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 the seasonal trend is to deny us snow I have made that very clear the Miller B's have screwed us and the Christmas hybrid did as well the Euro runs today have been no better Then why are you logged on at quarter to 2 a.m. if there is nothing to follow or see here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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