blazess556 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 That UKMET track is pure porn. Thats almost a NESIS 5 track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 That's good! Can you like not quote something with 3 large images in it? This has been mentioned. If you quote then delete the pics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 While the GFS has been on a roll lately it really has no support right now. Where can we look for evidence of which camp may be onto the right solution at this point? Do you see any clues yet? The angle that the secondary wave comes in as it crosses the BC mountains suggests this will have an early E-SE progression. Can't get around that--all models have keyed in on that. This will definitely be farther E as the wave heads southward through the CONUS--and it likely won't dig into the GOM like some runs had. Because this won't be digging as far S with the secondary backside jet developing into the Rockies--it does seem this wave will never fully "cutoff" from the mean flow--and will likely remain progressive. Even the NAM suggests that. This won't be bombing and crawling along the coast like runs had last night--or the Euro as early as a couple days ago. I don't think the uber east-progressive GFS operational will verify--but something likely in between. There is still a threat this tracks farther E along the coast--with less warm air issues if it continues E and progressive--although that is a small threat. The inland runner looks far less likely though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 That UKMET track is pure porn. and honestly a solution still on the table, the ensemble means of the GFS/EC/GGEM have been converging on something close to that for a while now. Just wish that convergence was happening 48 hours ahead of the storm and not 90 hours. BTW you done freaking out about the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 UKmet is about as perfect as we can hope for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pojrzsho Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The angle that the secondary wave comes in as it crosses the BC mountains suggests this will have an early E-SE progression. Can't get around that--all models have keyed in on that. This will definitely be farther E as the wave heads southward through the CONUS--and it likely won't dig into the GOM like some runs had. Because this won't be digging into as far S with the secondary jet developing into the Rockies--it does seem this wave will never fully "cutoff" from the mean flow--and will likely remain progressive. Even the NAM suggests that. This won't be bombing and crawling along the coast like runs had last night--or the Euro as early as a couple days ago. I don't think the uber east-progressive GFS operational will verify--but something likely in between. There is still a threat this tracks farther E along the coast--with less warm air issues if it continues E and progressive--although that is a small threat. The inland runner looks far less likely though. you answered my question too....thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 and honestly a solution still on the table, the ensemble means of the GFS/EC/GGEM have been converging on something close to that for a while now. Just wish that convergence was happening 48 hours ahead of the storm and not 90 hours. BTW you done freaking out about the GFS? If the Euro holds, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 If you at the EMC 00z model verification page at day 5, the ukmet is currently doing the best right now even though the euro has a better 30 day average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The angle that the secondary wave comes in as it crosses the BC mountains suggests this will have an early E-SE progression. Can't get around that--all models have keyed in on that. This will definitely be farther E as the wave heads southward through the CONUS--and it likely won't dig into the GOM like some runs had. Because this won't be digging as far S with the secondary backside jet developing into the Rockies--it does seem this wave will never fully "cutoff" from the mean flow--and will likely remain progressive. Even the NAM suggests that. This won't be bombing and crawling along the coast like runs had last night--or the Euro as early as a couple days ago. I don't think the uber east-progressive GFS operational will verify--but something likely in between. There is still a threat this tracks farther E along the coast--with less warm air issues if it continues E and progressive--although that is a small threat. The inland runner looks far less likely though. kind of my thinking, again back to the idea that the ensemble means of the GFS/GEM/EC are all converging on that solution. It also happens to be a pretty good solution for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 If you at the EMC 00z model verification page at day 5, the ukmet is currently doing the best right now even though the euro has a better 30 day average. Height field verification scores can be very misleading alone. I can attest to the UK being a poor model for forecasting purposes even with its stellar scores. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 If the Euro holds, yes. Even if Gfs is only outlier....it's still uncomfortable right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Thats almost a NESIS 5 track. huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Height field verification scores can be very misleading alone. I can attest to the UK being a poor model for forecasting purposes even with its stellar scores. Yeah, there is a running joke in this forum about the "second best model" UKMET and how it will show a wound-up bomb and the next run a weak wave off the FL coast heading to Africa, followed by an inland runner. It is screwy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Height field verification scores can be very misleading alone. I can attest to the UK being a poor model for forecasting purposes even with its stellar scores. it tends to have a really pronounced wrong bias Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 kind of my thinking, again back to the idea that the ensemble means of the GFS/GEM/EC are all converging on that solution. It also happens to be a pretty good solution for this area. Oddly enough the UK is realistic--and it is what I meant when I said "small threat" for a progressive bomb but east of the coast--but along it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Height field verification scores can be very misleading alone. I can attest to the UK being a poor model for forecasting purposes even with its stellar scores. thank you thank you thanks. could you please post this in the main forum. thanks again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 All I really want to see from the Euro tonight is that it maintains significant southern energy. The storm track will certainly change over the next few days, but we need the southern stream energy to hold on. The GFS hopefully is incorrectly overwhelming the southern energy.<br /><br />MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The UKMET looks like a MECS, maybe a HECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 thank you thank you thanks. could you please post this in the main forum. thanks again. There's a main storm forum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 huh? People forget that there have only been two NESIS 5 storms, ever. Still, I can't help but think Feb 1983 when I look at the UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Yeah, there is a running joke in this forum about the "second best model" UKMET and how it will show a wound-up bomb and the next run a weak wave off the FL coast heading to Africa, followed by an inland runner. It is screwy. Yeah it is pretty bad overall. It has done an awful job with coastals this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 48 hr Euro http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=h48&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 48 hr Euro http://vortex.plymou...t=h24&cu=latest http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=namer&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=h48&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 48 hr Euro http://vortex.plymou...t=h24&cu=latest For anyone out there--this guy chose a good color scheme for the Euro at Plymouth--especially the 500 hpa vorticity fields. http://greatlakes.salsite.com/big_ECMWF_plymouth_page.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcwx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Well I wanted an east trend to show an eventual final solution like the ukie, just worried it may be a day or two too early. Hopefully we can put the breaks on an east and/or north trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 day 3 http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=namer&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=h72&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Euro through 72 looks like the NAM lol--almost identical in the 500 hpa height field except a tick faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Euro through 72 looks like the NAM lol--almost identical in the 500 hpa height field except a tick faster. I guess Ian finally gets his extrapolated NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Euro through 72 looks like the NAM lol--almost identical in the 500 hpa height field except a tick faster. I don't know; to me it looks to be more progressive closer to GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I don't know; to me it looks to be more progressive closer to GFS Nah--looks elongated much like the NAM. This will be progressive and will sweep N of the GOM quickly as it begins to eject NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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