Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 seems like a lot of guidance has that high slipping east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 seems like a lot of guidance has that high slipping east add the ukie to that list Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 add the ukie to that list i guess that's a problem with having a +nao edit: tho i see ensembles take it back neg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 seems like a lot of guidance has that high slipping east The GGEM sure would be a rain storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The GGEM is always too warm. Seriously though, this is could be a rainstorm which would help verify my seasonal forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 12z GFS ensemble are all over the map on this storm. A couple members look like the OP and the rest are very different. Can't seem to decide which s/w is the one that really brews up the big storm. I'd gladly punt on PSUHoffman's storm, though, for what P008 brews up at hr 180-204. Yes please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 /cough Ok, you asked for it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I'm good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 hr 66 trough not as deep more positive, northern branch not digging in so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 12z GFS ensemble are all over the map on this storm. All the more reason to not worry about it, yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 sc nc coast gets a little snow at hr 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 hr 102 northern s/w much faster this run and the south west s/w is digging deeper in the south west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Day 4 ECMWF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 hr 114 1004 low in ND. closed 500low there--- s/w in texas is digging a little deeper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 hr 144 1004 low in ND. closed 500low there--- s/w in texas is digging a little deeper How is the High looking, sliding off the coast at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Day 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 No word on the GGEM, so it must suck It keys in on a much later disturbance as the storm culprit now...hence the high is long gone...the disturbance dropping into the southern Plains at Day 4 has to be the one which fires, if it is not this is a rain event eveywhere, including inland areas well north up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 hr 120 close 500 low ND/minn texas S/W nearing neutral 1038 hi over NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 This sounds good so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 hr 120 close 500 low ND/minn texas S/W nearing neutral 1038 hi over NY question is does that northern stream energy dive south and phase with the STJ, or does it lift northeast and screw everything up again. That will determine if there is a storm. Like was said earlier, if the first northern vort misses the phase, there will still be a storm but 2 days later and after the northern stream has chased the high OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 hr 126 southern S/W washing out northern has opened up more energy diving back into colorado 1036 hi in new england Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Day 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 sure looks like the high is drifting east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 hr 138 snow into va 1012 low in the gulf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 nice front end thump at 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 here comes warm air at 150 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Day 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 nice hit so far for va 0.50 to cho ric Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The low that forms off NC/SC at 84-96 hours is a big factor....if that low can really deepen and head into SE Canada it could force the high to be locked in longer...models have only recently keyed on that low forming like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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