mitchnick Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I think that vortex behind our player is the problem, kicking it along I knew it wouldn't be good being that close http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_102l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I'm pretty sure there will be Alaska and/or Hawaii based recon missions as part of WSR 2011 in the coming days. The flight they sent out of Japan this morning (obs made it into 12z) was technically targeted for an Alaskan event, but the more data the better . They have a recon mission for this threat? That is great--I wonder what difference that may make. I read a while back the NWS would be doing recon missions in the Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Bullseye moves north. It has begun. As we knew it would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 its a complete outlier right now....its a fooking Clipper problem is, we're getting closer to the GFS range and it keeps moving it faster all I can say is, look out Cleveland come tomorrow's runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Every GFS run since last night's 0z has given less and less qpf for Virginia. Now does the GGEM and Euro shift east as that would be a good scenario? A compromise would be great, but the other models folding to the GFS would be a disastah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The differences are laughable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I think we better pray this GFS Miller B idea is wrong. We need to gamble with the rain storm. This is quickly turning ugly on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 at 84 hours...the storm hasnt started yet on the NAM...but its about over with the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 I think we better pray this GFS Miller B idea is wrong. We need to gamble with the rain storm. This is quickly turning ugly on the GFS. I would rather have 2 inches of QPF ALL rain then this crap the gfs is giving us, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I would much rather have a rainstorm than 1" of snow at this point. Salt covered cars are ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Too many different solutions on the table right now. How anyone can put faith in one is beyond me. Someone posted yesterday, I think it was Baro, that the models would have an extremely difficult time with this upcoming period. We need more time. Something is in the cards. That's exciting. That's the best we'll get for a day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 choke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I think we better pray this GFS Miller B idea is wrong. We need to gamble with the rain storm. This is quickly turning ugly on the GFS. yeah, but its a hell of a clipper for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Anyone wishing for a complete rainstorm over a 3-5" snowfall is out of their fooking mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Too many different solutions on the table right now. How anyone can put faith in one is beyond me. Someone posted yesterday, I think it was Baro, that the models would have an extremely difficult time with this upcoming period. We need more time. Something is in the cards. That's exciting. That's the best we'll get for a day or two. I am nervous because the GFS has been excellent this winter and this look would certainly fit the seasonal pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I would much rather have a rainstorm than 1" of snow at this point. Salt covered cars are ugly. Earlier today, I wouldn't have said this but now I agree we need the rain storm, and take our chances with the cold air. Never thought I would be rooting for a few inches of snow followed by an inch of rain just to hopefully end up with another couple inches on the back-end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Anyone wishing for a complete rainstorm over a 3-5" snowfall is out of their fooking mind. i feel like some of you would keep falling into the same deep hole after being rescued without even considering it might be a bad idea to step into it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 DT is not on board to say the least. The tag to his post was "OH MY GOD" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Well, the trend on the GFS is undeniable..it is creeping north, but at the same time, the GFS is an outlier with this Miller Bish look. Like Ji pointed out, on the NAM at 84, the storm is just starting to get together and on the GFS the thing is about over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 choke It would not shock me at all to see the Euro and GGEM move towards the GFS tonight. Has happened a bunch of times already this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Anyone wishing for a complete rainstorm over a 3-5" snowfall is out of their fooking mind. Amen to that! I'd still take the 12Z GFS solution, as I'm sure most everyone here would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GFS vs. NAM at 84 hrs at least we know it is the same planet, but that's as far as it goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 It would not shock me at all to see the Euro and GGEM move towards the GFS tonight. Has happened a bunch of times already this winter. Except with yesterday's systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 They have a recon mission for this threat? That is great--I wonder what difference that may make. I read a while back the NWS would be doing recon missions in the Pacific. Yes, they have been doing flights (getting dropsonde data) out over the Pacific (and occasionally Gulf/Atlantic) in a quasi-operational capacity since 2001. The programs typically have specific periods they cover due to funding (usually January through March), but the data have been shown time and time again to be beneficial. They have their eyes on this threat, but haven't made a decision to send out flights just yet (though the information I'm looking at is old): FOR CASE 1: Observation time: 2011012212 Verification time: 2011012412 Latitude: 27N Longitude: 93W Priority: HIGH Comments: East coast winter storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 i feel like some of you would keep falling into the same deep hole after being rescued without even considering it might be a bad idea to step into it I'll take a nice 4-6" snowfall if that's what we're getting. Who knows at this point? If this ends up being another fringe screwjob, then meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I am saying that the chances of significant snow at BWI/DCA is next to nothing. I am 52. I have observed winter wx and patterns in Baltimore intensely since 1972. Maybe not where you come from, but there have been many winters around here where it just won't snow. Sure, synoptic circumstances are different with each storm in the season, but that did not change the result....no snow. In light of what has happened so far this year, I doubt it changes. Can it? Sure, but I think one must forecast with the season's pattern in mind. We do not do well in NINA's here and this year, a mod NINA, has been very unkind with respect to snow. That is my point in a nutshell. Climo is a biatch around here when it comes to NINA's and snow. This year has "skunk" written all over it. Equally important is the fact that the computers have been running the same show all winter and I'm seeing it again: 5 days out mega snow with each event, only to slowly fizzle with this morning being a perfect example of 1-3" forecasted by the NWS 12 hours in advance only to have <1/2" fall. Now, if it snows this winter, I expect you to step forward and say " I told you so" to which I will say, "bfd." To be clear, my position is that until we get a snow of significance, I assume it will not snow significantly no matter what the God-awful computers show. You may not agree with that position, so be it,but we will have to agree to disagree. In the end however, and contrary to what you may think, I hope I am wrong and you are right as the snow weenie in my heart will always prevail over competitive wx forecasting. I wonder what you would have been saying in 1958 when up until mid February there had been almost no snow at all in Baltimore, then there were 2 HECS and a SECS from that point on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 It would not shock me at all to see the Euro and GGEM move towards the GFS tonight. Has happened a bunch of times already this winter. the ggem likes to follows the gfs so lets see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Amen to that! I'd still take the 12Z GFS solution, as I'm sure most everyone here would. Look at the trends since 12Z. Pretty clear what it is doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I'll take a nice 4-6" snowfall if that's what we're getting. Who knows at this point? If this ends up being another fringe screwjob, then meh. Unfortunately, the way this winter has been going, 4 to 6 for you in Baltimore County could struggle to be 1 to 2 down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Well, the trend on the GFS is undeniable..it is creeping north, but at the same time, the GFS is an outlier with this Miller Bish look. Like Ji pointed out, on the NAM at 84, the storm is just starting to get together and on the GFS the thing is about over. I would take the GFS in a heartbeat but I'm not foolish enough to think that the trend won't stop at this run, especially when they all creeped north as the so-called "threat" got closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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