baroclinic_instability Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Well the GFS operational holds serve--but it was a huge outlier compared to its ensembles at 12z. Were this to pan out though--it would likely be all snow as opposed to snow-rain-snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 will be fun to watch this slip away over the next few runs... love the confidence Ian lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 will be fun to watch this slip away over the next few runs... It will be but the euro has been too jazzing with digging things too far south and west at times this year so even though the gfs is out on its own and looks a little funny, I'm not ready to completely toss it even though I think the snow to rain idea is still probably the more likely scenario. Hopefully, I'm wrong and the increased blocking that's showing up on the gfs is real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Ha..pushes the low much farther off the coast...decent QPF down here still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pojrzsho Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 At 102 low not that strong, but def colder, even for coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Thats some pretty big evolution differences between the 18Z NAM and 18Z GFS after 60. and I don't like the GFS one bit... it's creeping the 500mb energy north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 No negativity .... yet. ive been in hiding but i will valiantly return in victory! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 jma has a little company now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 .50 QPF in DCA/.80 BALT by 108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Well the GFS operational holds serve--but it was a huge outlier compared to its ensembles. Were this to pan out though--it would likely be all snow as opposed to snow-rain-snow. It is a huge outlier and right now is still the more unlikely of the two scenarios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Precip falls for around 30 hours this run, probally a low end SECS for our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Thats some pretty big evolution differences between the 18Z NAM and 18Z GFS after 60. and I don't like the GFS one bit... it's creeping the 500mb energy north It barely moved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 BOS 0.10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 BOS 0.10" And we all know that's not happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 It is a huge outlier and right now is still the more unlikely of the two scenarios. Yeah I am not giving it much credence either. The amplitude of the east. Pac. ridge will make it very challenging for such an amplified height pattern to result in that wave tracking E like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 You think an NE snow weenies are committing suicide after this run? Amazing it crushes one run and then OTS the next. Interesting "solution" it's come up with this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Thats some pretty big evolution differences between the 18Z NAM and 18Z GFS after 60. and I don't like the GFS one bit... it's creeping the 500mb energy north don't scare people, it didnt creep anything, H5 still passes through southern VA on this run. The 18z GFS is a carbon copy of the 12z only weaker, so naturally the SLP is a bit east also. At H5 the differences are very minor. The real differences are between the evolution of the system on the GFS and to some extent the NAM versus the Euro/UKMET/GGEM. A blend between the 2 camps actually might work out pretty well for us, and that could be a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 IT does the same thing with the trough at 108 vs the 12z (at 114) but about 200 miles to the east. Weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pojrzsho Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 ALL models have performed pretty poorly this year. NWS forecast discussion even mentioned this today. That being said DGEX has been the worst of the lot. if i was a weather person this year........I'd quit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The height field comparison of the GFS vs. NAM is laughable. I knew this pattern would be hard on the models, but the differences are astounding in how they treat the second baroclinic wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 SNE gets shafted. Throw it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The height field comparison of the GFS vs. NAM is laughable. I knew this pattern would be hard on the models, but the differences are astounding in how they treat the second baroclinic wave. Explain if you would? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 don't scare people, it didnt creep anything, H5 still passes through southern VA on this run. The 18z GFS is a carbon copy of the 12z only weaker, so naturally the SLP is a bit east also. At H5 the differences are very minor. The real differences are between the evolution of the system on the GFS and to some extent the NAM versus the Euro/UKMET/GGEM. A blend between the 2 camps actually might work out pretty well for us, and that could be a good thing. What I am saying is its much further north than the NAM or Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Hey, at least now the models are starting to figure out which shortwave to amplify, yesterday they couldnt even get that down with any consistency. We are slowly converging on a solution but models are still going to struggle in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Explain if you would? "Just a reminder of the crazy spread and extreme difficulty the models will have simulating these large upper tropospheric energetic waves as they break off the Pacific Jet. This is more challenging than large cyclones alone migrating across the Pacific. The spread at 96 hours is pretty amazing." The short blurb from this morning in central/western (above). The models stink badly with these disturbances breaking off the Pacific jet. The exact timing/amplitude/strength is hard for the models to handle. They also pass through the BC mountains--and that doesn't help. The differences with the guidance seem to be propping up as early as 42 hrs into the forecast as they can't handle the orientation and what angle that second wave comes in. Moreover--some guidance has a dual wave configuration with the secondary wave and a stronger backside jet-- as a result, the differences by 84 hrs are huge and one camp has a digging wave into Mexico and the GFS takes the leading S/W eastward. Finally compunding the forecast challenge is the wave in the Pacific is rapidly developing so any of those early tiny errors I mentioned above eventually result in massive changes. Best thing to do now is go with the ensemble means regarding the height field configuration then base the forecast from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 18z GFS ''Snow Accumulatoins'' map http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfssnow114.gif You know you need to take it with a grain of salt when somebody cant spell it right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I like the fact that an average of all guidance (GEFS, GFS, EC ens, EC, GGEM, GGEM ens) actually gives us a pretty good solution. Usually when all the major guidance is clustered around each other like this, a compromise solution ends up closer to reality. In this case a compromise works just fine. Even the warmer runs of the op GGEM and EC are not far from a major snowstorm. Taking a blend of the guidance at this time gives us a pretty good chance here. In past storms this was not true, we needed an outlier to win, or one extreme of the envelope of permutations. This time a blend of all guidance is a good result here. The other thing we have going for us is a favorable h5 track finally. I know its only on the models, but I have pointed out before that most of the storms this year did not have a favorable H5 track even on the guidance 5 days out. The surface looked good but h5 did not. I am more encouraged now that we have a legitinate chance at our first significant snow then I was when I first started talking about this threat several days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 http://www.americanw...post__p__331423 Just a reminder of the crazy spread and extreme difficulty the models will have simulating these large upper tropospheric energetic waves as they break off the Pacific Jet. This is more challenging than large cyclones alone migrating across the Pacific. The spread at 96 hours is pretty amazing. The models stink badly with these disturbances breaking off the Pacific jet. The exact timing/amplitude/strength is hard for the models to handle. They also pass through the BC mountains--and that doesn't help. The differences with the guidance seem to be propping up as early as 42 hrs into the forecast as they can't handle the orientation and what angle that second wave comes in. Moreover--some guidance has a dual wave configuration with the secondary wave and a stronger backside jet-- as a result, the differences by 84 hrs are huge and one camp has a digging wave into Mexico and the GFS takes the leading S/W eastward. Finally compunding the forecast challenge is the wave in the Pacific is rapidly developing so any of those early tiny errors I mentioned above eventually result in massive changes. Best thing to do now is go with the ensemble means regarding the height field configuration then base the forecast from there. I like the fact that while there are divergent solutions from the op models, the ensemble means of the EC, GGEM, and GFS are aactually fairly similar. Supports my comments above about a blend being a pretty good idea for now, as well as a pretty good solution for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 so right now we basically have to hope someone on a boat in the north pacific doesnt fart the wrong way and mess everything up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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