PhineasC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 lol. Yeah, that's my best guess. The Manchester, MD point is probably wrong. Rather it'd appear to be a New Castle, DE --> Bel Air North --> Randallstown --> Reston area --> to some place that I just don't care about between RIC and CHO (likely 2/3 of the way from RIC to CHO). Sounds like I will be seeing a big blue line in the sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I cannot speak for anyone else, but with the winter we are in i would gladly lock that in right now. Of course with the model runs we are seeing people get greedy and want all snow. It is a little agonizing watching over 2" of QPF be wasted to rain. Great point. With a crappy winter going it is amazing how quickly greed will set in based off a few runs--then when they get the snow they may not enjoy it simply because it isn't as much as some model runs had. Considering it has gone from nothing to a threat--folks should be happy with any snow they eventually get--even if it isn't a big dumping. It is amazing, based on the model runs, how 3-5" of snow could be a huge and gleeful moment, or it could be a huge downer when in reality 3-5" of snow is 3-5" of snow. No difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The GEM has almost no support outside of 2 members at 132 hours and notice how almost all of them are also well faster than the Op run as well...the GEM was very bad with this storm we had last night as well at this range, remember it had a 994mb low over NYC and none of its members supported it...turned out the Op run was wrong...the snow did go to rain in CNJ last night but the low track was still well south of where the GEM showed it at Day 4-5. http://www.weatherof...ime=12&Type=pnm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Great point. With a crappy winter going it is amazing how quickly greed will set in based off a few runs--then when they get the snow they may not enjoy it simply because it isn't as much as some model runs had. Considering it has gone from nothing to a threat--folks should be happy with any snow they eventually get--even if it isn't a big dumping. It is amazing, based on the model runs, how 3-5" of snow could be a huge and gleeful moment, or it could be a huge downer when in reality 3-5" of snow is 3-5" of snow. No difference. I think it is the fact that the 3-5" of snow would be mixed with 1-2" of rain, while areas that are 20 miles west easily surpass a foot. I think that's why the I-95 people would be a bit distraught if it was mostly mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 QPF TOTAL from GGEM Ensemble mean looks very nice for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolineWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 That looks a lot like the 12 GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 DGEX a monster hit for 81 incl FDK, HGR, etc. BWI/DCA gets 2-4'' front then 2'' rain then 8-12'' after the change back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Can you people please stop posting the DGEX? It is a terrible model that no real forecaster/met ever uses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Things are mainly looking good for us. H5 on the euro is fine and I wouldn't worry about ptype this far out. Hopefully everything comes together for us and we don't get screwed again. This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Where's Randy for his "mark my words" for the 18z GFS that has started? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 lol. Yeah, that's my best guess. The Manchester, MD point is probably wrong. Rather it'd appear to be a New Castle, DE --> Bel Air North --> Randallstown --> Reston area --> to some place that I just don't care about between RIC and CHO (likely 2/3 of the way from RIC to CHO). I figured you put that Manchester thing in there just for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benchmark Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I think the track is more important then worrying about the freezing line on the DGEX. I think the track is great and also like the fact that it stalls off the delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Can you people please stop posting the DGEX? It is a terrible model that no real forecaster/met ever uses. It agrees with the euro pretty much. What's so terrible about that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 It agrees with the euro pretty much. What's so terrible about that? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pojrzsho Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 DGEX a monster hit for 81 incl FDK, HGR, etc. BWI/DCA gets 2-4'' front then 2'' rain then 8-12'' after the change back. In my 43 years I've NEVER witnessed more than a couple of inches of snow after a change over, so that would be nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 In my 43 years I've NEVER witnessed more than a couple of inches of snow after a change over, so that would be nice that should probably make you a little skeptical of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 It agrees with the euro pretty much. What's so terrible about that? It shows too much rain at my house. Throw it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pojrzsho Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 It agrees with the euro pretty much. What's so terrible about that? ALL models have performed pretty poorly this year. NWS forecast discussion even mentioned this today. That being said DGEX has been the worst of the lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Can you people please stop posting the DGEX? It is a terrible model that no real forecaster/met ever uses. hey Phin,...H. margusity loves that model, i think hes the only one lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 that should probably make you a little skeptical of it. A little? - Try skeptical to the point of calling BS on it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 ALL models have performed pretty poorly this year. NWS forecast discussion even mentioned this today. That being said DGEX has been the worst of the lot. That discussion was funny... made me chuckle. They came SOO close to saying screwed... I know it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 In my 43 years I've NEVER witnessed more than a couple of inches of snow after a change over, so that would be nice its very rare, happened in 1972 west of the cities IAD up to Westminster got 10" of snow after a driving rainstorm from a Feb storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcwx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Will be interesting to see which model gets the win on this storm. For our sake lets hope its not the JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pojrzsho Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 that should probably make you a little skeptical of it. LOL...I am. I was trying to be nice, so as not to be argumentative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 hey Phin,...H. margusity loves that model, i think hes the only one lol Yeah. lol - I've heard him on his videos say "For the big daddy storm coming up I think the DGEX is handling it best...I just threw out the EURO because it looks so unbelievable" - This was a few winters ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 hey Phin,...H. margusity loves that model, i think hes the only one lol That might explain some of his forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Will be interesting to see which model gets the win on this storm. For our sake lets hope its not the JMA or 12z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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