yoda Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 50-60 POPS Tues night for snow across LWX except for S MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Mark me down for a front end and back end dump. And no stinking radio show; the trend with those is not good. Yeah, when we did one for the last 2 superstorms last year, it didn't turn out so well. Oh, wait.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Yeah, when we did one for the last 2 superstorms last year, it didn't turn out so well. Oh, wait.... Last year was too easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Yeah, when we did one for the last 2 superstorms last year, it didn't turn out so well. Oh, wait.... Worked well this year. For New Jersey. I guess we have to remember that this isn't just a Mid Atlantic weather board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Hints of positivity from LWX, FWIW. I didn't see too much positivity. Pretty objective discussion and well-written though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Worked well this year. For New Jersey. I guess we have to remember that this isn't just a Mid Atlantic weather board. Did just fine for New Jersey. Whens the radio show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Yeah, when we did one for the last 2 superstorms last year, it didn't turn out so well. Oh, wait.... Wait until Monday night and have a "nowcast" show. Those are best. Listening to ORH_wxman kill the storm 4 days out.... no thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcwx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I didn't see too much positivity. Pretty objective discussion and well-written though. Yeah they seem to be cautious given the poor mid range model performance this winter, definitely the right move. There is also little model agreement outside of the fact that we have a storm. That's why I am a bit surprised at the 60% forecast for all snow for Tuesday night this early for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I didn't see too much positivity. Pretty objective discussion and well-written though. If the only major concern LWX has at this point is about the speed of phasing, it seems they are pretty confident about the coastal in general, just not about the timing in the MA being sufficient to allow significant winter precip. They raised model perfomance and past systems not as a killer, but as factors to keep in mind. I take that as a good sign 4 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I didn't see too much positivity. Pretty objective discussion and well-written though. Unfortunately, I agree. In fact, I see skittishness all through that discussion. Probably a wise course of action, given the past 6 weeks or so. Just have to hope for the best and accept whatever comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 FWIW -- 15z SREFs h5 at 87 hrs http://www.nco.ncep....ef_50h_087s.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I need to see 6-12 or the Hoffstorm is a bust if DC gets over 3" you will get your 6-12 probably out where you are. Same up here, if DC gets over 3 I probably have the bar set at 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Huff, I agree. I do not think this looks bad at all for our areas. We may flirt with mixing, but looks like a big storm verbatim. I would take this over the lack of QPF. Now let's just see if the Euro can score a coup because it has not been very good this winter. I would lean more toward the GFS at this point, but it is all over the place the last several runs. Been hard to get our hopes up this winter with the model mayhem. Really don't know until you get within 36 hours. Do you have QPF numbers for ROA from the EURO? For ROA its 1.31 and barely all snow on each 6 hour interval. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The ECMWF Ensembles... The mean low tracks from about Waycross, GA at 108hr to the NC/SC border just NE or Florence, SC at 114hr, to 1004mb and just a bit WSW of Williamsburg at 120hr, to 1000mb and right smack over the E-W, longitude parallel MD/DE border over the Delmarva at 126hr to a very board 1000mb low well ESE of ACY at 132hr. Points east of a CHO --> Reston --> just west of Manchester, MD to Newark, DE arc would go to rain sometime between 108 and 114hr then back to snow east of DC by 126hr. Total QPF is >1.25" over a broad region (everything from RIC to OKV to NYC). At least .5" if not .75" of that would be rain for the change over region. The only safe guess would be at least .25" of snow prior to change over for all areas. The spaghetti plot shows a huge amount of timing spread even as early as 108hr. While it looks like the timing issues would span an 18 if not 24hr window, almost all the suggested lows are along a Savannah --> just west of ORF --> central Delmarva --> ENE of ACY line. Thus, there's a good bit of consensus on that path. Several of the members look like they have a primary tracking through the OV/Western WV region with a few showing the primary as far east as about SW VA. The dominant signal, by far, is about 3hr, maybe 6hr, faster than the OP, a bit weaker and about 30 - 50mi east of the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I know this isnt any of your guys' neck of the woods, but heres Mt. Hollys discussion: AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 312 PM EST FRI JAN 21 2011 .....LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --ON MONDAY NIGHT, A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS TO THE EAST, REACHING THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TO NOVA SCOTIA AND VICINITY FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A MID LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO DROP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES FOR FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE, COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH SHOULD PROGRESS SLOWLY TO THE EAST. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES OR OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON TUESDAY. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHEASTWARD, POSSIBLY BRINGING OUR REGION ANOTHER WINTER STORM FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE TRACK OF THE POTENTIAL SYSTEM REMAINS UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER, PRESENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST MAINLY SNOW IN OUR REGION, WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION ON THE COASTAL PLAIN. AS THE STORM LIFTS TO OUR NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, IT SHOULD REMAIN COLD IN OUR REGION WITH PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. -- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The ECMWF Ensembles... The mean low tracks from about Waycross, GA at 108hr to the NC/SC border just NE or Florence, SC at 114hr, to 1004mb and just a bit WSW of Williamsburg at 120hr, to 1000mb and right smack over the E-W, longitude parallel MD/DE border over the Delmarva at 126hr to a very board 1000mb low well ESE of ACY at 132hr. Points east of a CHO --> Reston --> just west of Manchester, MD to Newark, DE arc would go to rain sometime between 108 and 114hr then back to snow east of DC by 126hr. Total QPF is >1.25" over a broad region (everything from RIC to OKV to NYC). At least .5" if not .75" of that would be rain for the change over region. The only safe guess would be at least .25" of snow prior to change over for all areas. The spaghetti plot shows a huge amount of timing spread even as early as 108hr. While it looks like the timing issues would span an 18 if not 24hr window, almost all the suggested lows are along a Savannah --> just west of ORF --> central Delmarva --> ENE of ACY line. Thus, there's a good bit of consensus on that path. Several of the members look like they have a primary tracking through the OV/Western WV region with a few showing the primary as far east as about SW VA. The dominant signal, by far, is about 3hr, maybe 6hr, faster than the OP, a bit weaker and about 30 - 50mi east of the OP. hmm a low track over the delmarva is classic for HGR, and probably a good snow to mix to snow event 95 west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The ECMWF Ensembles... The mean low tracks from about Waycross, GA at 108hr to the NC/SC border just NE or Florence, SC at 114hr, to 1004mb and just a bit WSW of Williamsburg at 120hr, to 1000mb and right smack over the E-W, longitude parallel MD/DE border over the Delmarva at 126hr to a very board 1000mb low well ESE of ACY at 132hr. Points east of a CHO --> Reston --> just west of Manchester, MD to Newark, DE arc would go to rain sometime between 108 and 114hr then back to snow east of DC by 126hr. Total QPF is >1.25" over a broad region (everything from RIC to OKV to NYC). At least .5" if not .75" of that would be rain for the change over region. The only safe guess would be at least .25" of snow prior to change over for all areas. The spaghetti plot shows a huge amount of timing spread even as early as 108hr. While it looks like the timing issues would span an 18 if not 24hr window, almost all the suggested lows are along a Savannah --> just west of ORF --> central Delmarva --> ENE of ACY line. Thus, there's a good bit of consensus on that path. Several of the members look like they have a primary tracking through the OV/Western WV region with a few showing the primary as far east as about SW VA. The dominant signal, by far, is about 3hr, maybe 6hr, faster than the OP, a bit weaker and about 30 - 50mi east of the OP. So if you are west of Reston you remain snow? I am just trying to get a picture of your excellent analysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I'm just referring to this year's radio shows. Yeah, when we did one for the last 2 superstorms last year, it didn't turn out so well. Oh, wait.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Maybe this will help me and those who need a map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 EURO ensembles are so close to perfection. 50-100 miles east and it's a no-holds-barred HECS. Make it happen snow gods! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 i want for once to have a payoff for living in desolate Leesburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Again, FWIW 18z NAM at 84 h5 http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_500_084l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
derecho Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Things are mainly looking good for us. H5 on the euro is fine and I wouldn't worry about ptype this far out. Hopefully everything comes together for us and we don't get screwed again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 i thought we didnt have a -NAO for this event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolineWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 18 NAM at 84hrs look a lot like the 12 GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcwx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 18 NAM at 84hrs look a lot like the 12 GFS Wish we had the next frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 i thought we didnt have a -NAO for this event There is a slight one and its east based. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 So if you are west of Reston you remain snow? I am just trying to get a picture of your excellent analysis lol. Yeah, that's my best guess. The Manchester, MD point is probably wrong. Rather it'd appear to be a New Castle, DE --> Bel Air North --> Randallstown --> Reston area --> to some place that I just don't care about between RIC and CHO (likely 2/3 of the way from RIC to CHO). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Maybe this will help me and those who need a map The green on this map is a few pixels further west in VA than the green on the map I'm referencing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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