yoda Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 PSU -- does this help for the h5 maps? Looks like at 120 its in NW SC closed and at 144 its just SE of Cape Cod closed http://www.ecmwf.int...s!2011012112!!/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schinz Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 probably not because there would be a warmer layer somewhere in the profile, but the real quetions is from 100 hours away is it accurate to 1 degree lol People are agonizing over 2-3 degrees here because a 3 degree change in profiles makes a HUGE difference. Anyone have the H5 maps yet? http://www.ecmwf.int...s!2011012112!!/ Track looks good to me at H5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 PSU -- does this help for the h5 maps? Looks like at 120 its in NW SC closed and at 144 its just SE of Cape Cod closed http://www.ecmwf.int...s!2011012112!!/ Unless it goes North and hangs a hard right that track seems good for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Unless it goes North and hangs a hard right that track seems good for us. It looks like it would head over Ocean City around hr 132 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 It looks like it would head over Ocean City around hr 132 Count me in on this threat, at this range that track is good enough for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 LOVE the h5 track of the euro question for everyone...lets say this does go negative too early and come up inland ala the GGEM/Euro initially and the end result for the DC/Balt area is a front end 3-5" and a back end 3-5" are we ok with that? This could be all snow, or all rain, or anything in between, just wondering where the bar is being set with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Hey how did the euro look out til feburary? Is it still very cold pattern like the gfs is showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jviper Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Count me in on this threat, at this range that track is good enough for me. Set it high and leave the rain off. Keep the positive vib going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 LOVE the h5 track of the euro question for everyone...lets say this does go negative too early and come up inland ala the GGEM/Euro initially and the end result for the DC/Balt area is a front end 3-5" and a back end 3-5" are we ok with that? This could be all snow, or all rain, or anything in between, just wondering where the bar is being set with this one. I cannot speak for anyone else, but with the winter we are in i would gladly lock that in right now. Of course with the model runs we are seeing people get greedy and want all snow. It is a little agonizing watching over 2" of QPF be wasted to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schinz Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 LOVE the h5 track of the euro question for everyone...lets say this does go negative too early and come up inland ala the GGEM/Euro initially and the end result for the DC/Balt area is a front end 3-5" and a back end 3-5" are we ok with that? This could be all snow, or all rain, or anything in between, just wondering where the bar is being set with this one. Hoffman....I am setting the bar a little higher than that in the Westminster area...I believe we will get there with that H5 track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The spread here is amazing, we could get flooded or blizzard lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 I need to see 6-12 or the Hoffstorm is a bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 LOVE the h5 track of the euro question for everyone...lets say this does go negative too early and come up inland ala the GGEM/Euro initially and the end result for the DC/Balt area is a front end 3-5" and a back end 3-5" are we ok with that? This could be all snow, or all rain, or anything in between, just wondering where the bar is being set with this one. I'd be happy with enough snow to cover the grass. 3"? Good enough. It's been a tough year so enough to shovel is good enough for me. If it is a SN-R-SN event, I hope there is enough on the back to take the kids sledding. To them, that's the definition of "enough to be happy". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brianonymous Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 So when does the board go into storm mode? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SerialDerecho Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 LOVE the h5 track of the euro question for everyone...lets say this does go negative too early and come up inland ala the GGEM/Euro initially and the end result for the DC/Balt area is a front end 3-5" and a back end 3-5" are we ok with that? This could be all snow, or all rain, or anything in between, just wondering where the bar is being set with this one. Considering how this winter has gone, Id be perfectly happy with that. But out here in Charles Town, I think we would do better than that. But to answer your question, the entire area could get 3 feet and people would still b*tch that Boston got 4' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 euro ens is generally supportive of the op, weaker and thus colder -- 850s never get much west of dc. but the mean is kinda smoothed etc so i dont know if there is much difference at all in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 The euro really busted with temps from the ice storm Monday. It was 6 degrees too warm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 tho the 500 track is not as good as the center ultimately goes over dc and just north but im not sure that's meaningful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timstobrazil Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 LOVE the h5 track of the euro question for everyone...lets say this does go negative too early and come up inland ala the GGEM/Euro initially and the end result for the DC/Balt area is a front end 3-5" and a back end 3-5" are we ok with that? This could be all snow, or all rain, or anything in between, just wondering where the bar is being set with this one. any amount of snow would be welcome, it's just fun to track the idea of a huge storm even if it doesn't pan out. but i think im in the minority Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 if this is anything near reality I will camp out at some ski resort somewhere WISP/Whitetail ext... and have the best 3 days of my life on my new powder skiis. I'm going skiing next weekend at Wisp so I'm hoping they get rocked with this potential storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 question for everyone...lets say this does go negative too early and come up inland ala the GGEM/Euro initially and the end result for the DC/Balt area is a front end 3-5" and a back end 3-5" are we ok with that? This could be all snow, or all rain, or anything in between, just wondering where the bar is being set with this one. I would say as long as we get more than half of our QPF (whatever that is) as snow, I would be satisfied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I have fairly high expectations, which is a change from my normal 2011 winter pessimism. This just screams of a storm that drops heavy snow in my area.....of course it is still far out. I'd take 4-6, 1" rain, and then 4-6 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I'd be happy with anything over 3 or 4 inches honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 i really miss tracking this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 This will be a legit threat until somebody decides that a radio show is a good idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Mark me down for a front end and back end dump. And no stinking radio show; the trend with those is not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 This is going to be a fun weekend. Honestly if we get more than 3 inches ill be alright Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Huff, I agree. I do not think this looks bad at all for our areas. We may flirt with mixing, but looks like a big storm verbatim. I would take this over the lack of QPF. Now let's just see if the Euro can score a coup because it has not been very good this winter. I would lean more toward the GFS at this point, but it is all over the place the last several runs. Been hard to get our hopes up this winter with the model mayhem. Really don't know until you get within 36 hours. Do you have QPF numbers for ROA from the EURO? Exactly-- as is, its snow just west of LYH-- ROA and BCB are all snow. LYH warms to rain, would likley be ice and then EXPLODES back to snow (Another 6-10). My experience is that inland runners are better for backlash snows then OTS storms...so it could be legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Hints of positivity from LWX, FWIW. .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...ALL EYES WILL BE ON THE POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM DURING THE ERY TOMID PART OF NEXT WEEK. ECMWF/GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL SHOWA POTENT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES ON SUN DIVING INTO THEMIDWEST BY MON. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN LATEMON INTO TUE AS IT PHASES WITH A LEADING SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE.DURING THE PHASING PROCESS...A COASTAL LOW IS FAVORED TO DEVELOPALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND MOVE UP THE ERN SEABOARD TUE INTO WED.STRONG HIPRES OVER NEW ENGLAND SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH COLD AIR FORTHE REGION TO DEAL WITH WINTRY PRECIP. EXACT PTYPE AND AMOUNT OFPRECIP WILL ULTIMATELY BE DETERMINED BY THE TRACK OF THE LOW ANDHOW QUICKLY THE LOW DEVELOPS. SO FAR THIS WINTER...THESE COASTALLOW SYSTEMS HAVE TENDED TO DEVELOP TOO LATE TO GIVE THE DC AREA ASIGNIFICANT WINTER EVENT. HOWEVER...MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL RUNS ONNUMEROUS OCCASIONS THIS WINTER HAD INDICATED POTENTIAL BIG STORMSFOR THE REGION 4-6 DAYS OUT THAT DID NOT PAN OUT DUE TO A DELAY INTHE PHASING PROCESS IN WEAKER SRN STREAM SYSTEMS. WHILE CONFIDENCE/AND POPS/ OF THIS SYSTEM BRINGING SOME DEGREE OF IMPACT TO THEMID-ATLANTIC STATES IS INCREASING...IT STILL REMAINS LOW WHENTAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE RELATIVELY POOR MODEL PERFORMANCE SO FARTHIS WINTER AND CURRENT RUN TO RUN/MODEL TO MODEL DIFFERENCES. THEMOST LIKELY TIME PERIOD FOR THE LOW TO IMPACT THE AREA WITH WINTRYPRECIP...RA AND/OR SNOW...NOW APPEARS TO BE ERY TUE INTO TUE NGT.THIS COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE TWO UPPER SYSTEMSPHASE. BEHIND THE COASTAL LOW...BELOW NORMAL TEMPS SHOULD PERSISTINTO LATE NEXT WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I haven't been this excited or optimistic since 2010...sans the Boxing Day bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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