Huffwx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 If that insane QPF is anything near reality, I'm going to camp out at my sister's in HGR Don't blame you for a second. If it seems like an 181 special-- I'm gonna make my way up there. Get above 2k feet and let it ROCK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 westminster is kinda comical .95 snow 1.1 rain .94 snow 18" of snow with 1" of rain in the middle Whats MDT please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 psuhoffman, FDK per euro please . BTW these are somewhat estimates because for some stations its obvious the changeover happens between the 6 hour temp profiles so I have to guesstimate but.... FDK .7 snow 1.1 rain/mix .85 snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcwx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 This seems to be shaping up in a pretty interesting event regardless of whether we mix or not. Would love to be all snow, but a crazy event with front and back end snow with torrential rain/wind in the middle would be fun to say the least. I am encouraged that if you combined all of the models and averaged them out, DC/BWI seem to be in prime territory. At this point though, I think its looking more like Frederick/HGR could be the sweet spot in terms of snow. I am sticking with the GFS as it has been the first to catch on to solutions this year. Euro is displaying something very similar to the GFS 0z last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 as I understand from Matt, there are mixing issues even on the Euro due to the 850 placement so we're looking at about 10" of heavy wet snow possible, maybe a little less as you move south of the WV panhandle. Oh I agree with you on the mixing Trix. Even for us. But we dont go above freezing at the surface and verbatim we would have a foot of ice after it freezes. Major storm for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I agree. Everyone is still in the game. But I hope it stays right where it is. Monstrous storm for my area if it verified. Yeah, probably a great solution out here. I have some elevation as well at my location...almost 1,100 feet and 7 miles west of Winchester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Whats MDT please 2.8 liquid just about all snow it gets to exactly 0 at 850 on one prog, possible there is a warmer period between time samples...but your burried Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 BTW these are somewhat estimates because for some stations its obvious the changeover happens between the 6 hour temp profiles so I have to guesstimate but.... FDK .7 snow 1.1 rain/mix .85 snow Appreciate that. I don't think I have ever seen a storm with so much snow and rain in one storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 GGEM ensembles at 120... looks like a lot DO NOT agree with the OP and place the low off the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 If that insane QPF is anything near reality, I'm going to camp out at my sister's in HGR if this is anything near reality I will camp out at some ski resort somewhere WISP/Whitetail ext... and have the best 3 days of my life on my new powder skiis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Has there ever been storm like what is being modeled. Heavy snow....Heavy rain...Heavy snow. I mean the amounts are extreme to say the least. I guess the Blizzard of 93 was similar for areas east of I95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Yeah, probably a great solution out here. I have some elevation as well at my location...almost 1,100 feet and 7 miles west of Winchester. Yeah i'm about 12 miles N/W of Winchester itself. Just under 1000 feet though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Hear the GEM ENS are more east than the OP. not surprising, people need to stop vascilating back and forth with each run of the models. I know its human nature and I do it emotionally also even though the scientific part of my brain knows any of these solutions is just as likely to occur at this range. We have multiple permutations but all are clustered around the idea that there will be major amplification coming out of the southeast and up the coast, perhaps inland, perhaps off the coast and anywhere in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 2.8 liquid just about all snow it gets to exactly 0 at 850 on one prog, possible there is a warmer period between time samples...but your burried Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcwx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Has there ever been storm like what is being modeled. Heavy snow....Heavy rain...Heavy snow. I mean the amounts are extreme to say the least. I guess the Blizzard of 93 was similar for areas east of I95. If we had 3" qpf verify as all snow/frozen this would be the GW storm of the late 1700's where 36" of snow fell in the DC/BWI area. Would not ever happen, but wouldn't that be something! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 im shocked the JMA went out to sea...i was expecting a huge inland runner. Still alot of questions out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 If we had 3" qpf verify as all snow/frozen this would be the GW storm of the late 1700's where 36" of snow fell in the DC/BWI area. Would not ever happen, but wouldn't that be something! Dont think its gonna be cold enough for 36 inches of snow. Heavy wet snow and would compact quickly. It's all a fantasy right now anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 POPS are increasing... LWX has a 50 POP for snow tuesday night for just about all (yes Ian you too in DC) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 JYO is not much different but its so close for them, they get .85 liquid with 850's at .5 and then another 1" liquid with 850s 1.1 can it snow with 850 of 1.1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 If we had 3" qpf verify as all snow/frozen this would be the GW storm of the late 1700's where 36" of snow fell in the DC/BWI area. Would not ever happen, but wouldn't that be something! Uhhh, Feb. 5-6 last year ring a bell??? No, it wasn't 36" as in the Washington-Jefferson storm...and I don't care that DCA gave an anemic-looking 17.8" amount officially. But there were widespread 20-30"+ amounts within the DC/Baltimore metro areas. And I think one place just outside the DC beltway did get 38". QPF amounts then were in the 2-3" range, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I have a question. The Euro has massive amounts of QPF so obviously the storm is pretty GD strong. If the storm takes the same track but 1/2 the strength, would this keep the 850 further SE or would the track pretty much guarantee a changover for some duration for areas around DCA and BWI? I'm only asking because I'm curious and not because I think the track is definitely going to verify. Many changes ahead for sure, but it is really hard to not believe that something pretty big is going to happen. I remember hearing someone say "The big ones are sniffed out the earliest with the least run to run variation inside of 4 days.". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I'm just loving that there is a storm with this level of qpf on the map.....I'll deal with temp issues as it draws closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Uhhh, Feb. 5-6 last year ring a bell??? No, it wasn't 36" as in the Washington-Jefferson storm...and I don't care that DCA gave an anemic-looking 17.8" amount officially. But there were widespread 20-30"+ amounts within the DC/Baltimore metro areas. And I think one place just outside the DC beltway did get 38". QPF amounts then were in the 2-3" range, too. Elkridge, where I work, got 30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Alright, who told my co-workers? I have already had 4 different people at my work come to me and ask me about this big storm on Tuesday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 For all the Winchester, Martinsburg people here, I still think at game time precip amounts will be more of a factor for us than temps will be. This thing wouldn't be until the Tues-Wed time frame right? Wow, that's a long time in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 can it snow with 850 of 1.1? probably not because there would be a warmer layer somewhere in the profile, but the real quetions is from 100 hours away is it accurate to 1 degree lol People are agonizing over 2-3 degrees here because a 3 degree change in profiles makes a HUGE difference. Anyone have the H5 maps yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 that isn't the case at all right now though. LOL- I was thinking the same thing right after I hit submit. However, the big hits to our north and east were sniffed out pretty early and modeled pretty well. Of course sitting down here on the fringe made it feel like the models sucked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 if this is anything near reality I will camp out at some ski resort somewhere WISP/Whitetail ext... and have the best 3 days of my life on my new powder skiis. For some reason I only get a thrill out of snow if it snows at my location. Snowchasing seems unfulfilling. My money is still on a Miller B screwjob, but I'll take an average of the JMA and Euro, please. Something that may give some credence to the big QPF numbers though is that Mother Nature loves making up precip deficits in one fell swoop. Dry summers often have a tropical system that gets us back to norms. Same could happen here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Alright, who told my co-workers? I have already had 4 different people at my work come to me and ask me about this big storm on Tuesday... Where else, accwx. People are talking about it here who dn't even follow weather. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I think it's more of an icing threat than a change over to rain. There's some darn cold air out in front of the storm. Case in point is the ice event on Tuesday. Modeled as a changeover to rain all the way up to the event. Never got above 28 degrees here by time the precip ended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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