psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Here are the splits snow/rain/snow IAD: .27, 1.94, .50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 People are acting like we are hundreds of miles from a snowstorm around here. This isn't an Apps runner. 50 miles east would pound IAD and central MD, 100 miles east would give I-95 a huge snowstorm. Considering the huge GFS shifts over the last 24 hours, everything is on the table. I agree. Everyone is still in the game. But I hope it stays right where it is. Monstrous storm for my area if it verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 key difference here is the euro holds back energy and is slower to evolve than the gfs at hr 90 the trough axis is hundreds of miles east on the gfs thathats the euro bias right? it will correct itself later tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 BWI .24 snow 2.17 rain .53 snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Exactly-- as is, its snow just west of LYH-- ROA and BCB are all snow. LYH warms to rain, would likley be ice and then EXPLODES back to snow (Another 6-10). My experience is that inland runners are better for backlash snows then OTS storms...so it could be legit. Here in central MD, the only storm that I remember REALLY giving us significant backlash snows after a changeover was the '93 Superstorm. Of course we sometimes get an inch or two on the wrap-around, but that as the one time we got a legit post-changeover snowSTORM that I recall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 my statement wasn't really open to interpretation. PM me and I can point you to a copy of a good NWP book. I agree with this mostly, but sometimes the models do something screwy at the surface that seems out of touch with other levels. In these instances 90 percent of the time the correction that comes in future runs is at the surface, NOT the H5. This winter is a great example as time after time models have tried to give significant snow to DC with an H5 track that made no sense. As the storm approached they invariable correct the surface to match the H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 Here are the splits snow/rain/snow IAD: .27, 1.94, .50 LOL...i have a hard time seeing it switch to rain once it starts as snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 From the NYC/Philly thread: "qpf for event 3-4" DC just west of Baltimore to PA /MD border then east to norther DE line goes south to southern 3rd of DE and then back to DC 2.5-3" north thru dead center VA in to PA east of Altoona, goes east to NYC, all of NJ, delmarva and eastern VA 1.75-2" WV/MD border northeast to NY/PA border on up[ to NE" That's wild stuff right there. Well that's a pretty substantial storm if the temps are right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I would think splitting the difference between these two solutions would be our dream scenario, no? Was the 18-24" of snow that the 12z GFS showed for Towson not good enough? We CAN get snow from Miller B's people. Does anyone remember Feb 10, 2010? Wasn't that long ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 JYO is not much different but its so close for them, they get .85 liquid with 850's at .5 and then another 1" liquid with 850s 1.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Here are the splits snow/rain/snow IAD: .27, 1.94, .50 Serious? 2.7" qpf? That's a lot of liquid. Small stream flooding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 Hagestown is all snow...classic. The Hagerstown is back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Well that's a pretty substantial storm if the temps are right Pretty substantial? Are you kidding me. Its a HECS and a big one at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 when that thing bombs if it is 50 miles or more east someone in va could get a huge surprise that is riding the mix line Location of the high in the NE will be crucial to our snow chances. I'm not too happy with it's placement right now but I'm sure I shouldn't focus on that part just yet. It is nice to see a wet event regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTutton Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I am hearing conflicting information on RIC switching back to snow. Can we confirm a decent period of snow for RIC and possible significant snow for DC after low gets north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Holy Crap batman on the QPF. at least that wont be a problem this storm. I say this is the best threat all winter, past or future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 westminster is kinda comical .95 snow 1.1 rain .94 snow 18" of snow with 1" of rain in the middle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 this would put a dent in the developing drought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 westminster is kinda comical .95 snow 1.1 rain .94 snow 18" of snow with 1" of rain in the middle hoffman, move this 50 miles east and you would get totally blasted. You should like this Euro run a whole lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 York PA stays just about all snow, never gets above .7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 BWI .24 snow 2.17 rain .53 snow So 4" of snow, 2" of rain then ANOTHER of snow? Wow...one wet storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 York PA stays just about all snow, never gets above .7 850mb temp or QPF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 hoffman, move this 50 miles east and you would get totally blasted. You should like this Euro run a whole lot. for my area I do not mind this run at all... where I live is halfway between westminster airport and THV (york) but yorks airfield is 10 miles southwest of them, only about 12 miles northeast of me. Splitting the difference, I have a good period of mixing in the middle but probably 10" front end and 10" back end. I would take that as is no complaints. But I am rooting for DC and Baltimore to do a little better then they would on this run as is. Still a LOT of time. I will say right now my guess would be somewhere between the GFS and the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Exactly-- Too bad you're not in Htown this year-- looks to be REALLY good up there. Heck, even if its a Miller A rain, I'll be please. Looking at the EC extrated Data--its not bad for my region. Snow to rain but temps are 33 (Likely too warm) then back to snow with like 6-10 falling. If that insane QPF is anything near reality, I'm going to camp out at my sister's in HGR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 psuhoffman, FDK per euro please . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Now for something completely different? http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_144HR.gif Good ol jma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 So what is the H5 track here? GGEM H5 was not bad thats why it does not bother me that much. GFS h5 was still good across central VA. Not sure yet about euro I have MOS but not graphics, need midlo to help a little on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 GGEM H5 was not bad thats why it does not bother me that much. GFS h5 was still good across central VA. Not sure yet about euro I have MOS but not graphics, need midlo to help a little on that one. Hear the GEM ENS are more east than the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 HGR stays all snow, massive blizzard From what I can see the snow/mix line probably gets to the blue ridge then hooks ene through southern PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 12z GGEM ensemble members are well east of the op. Most of them show a coastal storm. http://www.weatherof...ime=12&Type=pnm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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