Ian Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 No need to be smarmy, dude. It is a good run. Just enjoy it. im not sure smarmy is the correct degradation you are looking for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 I didnt think this could ever morph into a Miller B but this is the kind of winter we are having. Truly Awful run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 this is worst case scenario if its already showing this crap 5 days out. Lets hope its a burp its happened like this all year, why would it be any different next week? I called it on 1/6, this year is a bust for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I didnt think this could ever morph into a Miller B but this is the kind of winter we are having. Truly Awful run ninas dont have miller as Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltimoreguy Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 From another thread ... feels like the trend is holding true The trend in the models for all the "storms" this year seems to be this: Days 3-7: Look really good...possible WSW type snows. Certainly high WWA level snows. Day 1-3: Crap the bed. QPF levels cut by factor of 2 or more. Begging for 1" of snow. Last 18-24hrs: Bring things back just a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wesleyhtswx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Even a "good" run 5 days out resembles the seasonal track/pattern. Nudge 80-100 miles north over 5 days of runs and you have a repeat performance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 From another thread ... feels like the trend is holding true except last night's storm didn't come back a little, it crapped the bed and the floor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SerialDerecho Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Verbatim this looks good, however its going to be hard for me to get excited about a miller b this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 well, at least everything the GFS shows from 132 hrs on will come true congrats ENE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Not every miller b hoses us. Just a lot of them. Reading the kocin book at least opened my eyes to the fact that if it re-develops far enough south we have a shot. Yaneverknow. At the least ian, the pattern sure doesn't want to give us an easy over-running 4 inch storm this year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Some of you guys are going a little overboard. I understand, given the absolute screwjobs we've been getting. Its ok to note the negative tendency of Miller B's, but before taking the 4 day track of a model verbatim now, I would wait to see if the GGEM/Euro/Ensembles show this. Right now, we're close to an inch of QPF with a snow profile. Let's hold for right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Dear lord what a bunch of whiners. Everyone was leaping up a down last night when the Euro and GFS showed us getting a few inches of snow on each side of a biblical deluge and now the GFS shows a HECS and everyone's crying into their keyboards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcwx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 lol miller b trending north; seasonal trend for the win. I don't mind this run but the cut off is way too sharp again. These generally screw DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 its also showing the trend of nut much precip on the western shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Some of you guys are going a little overboard. I understand, given the absolute screwjobs we've been getting. Its ok to note the negative tendency of Miller B's, but before taking the 4 day track of a model verbatim now, I would wait to see if the GGEM/Euro/Ensembles show this. Right now, we're close to an inch of QPF with a snow profile. Let's hold for right now. any other year I might be with you on that Randy, but this year, GFS seems to be leading the way regardless of what the other models show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 recap 18z miller shiat 0z miller a bomb 6z miller a bomb 12z miller b late bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 Some of you guys are going a little overboard. I understand, given the absolute screwjobs we've been getting. Its ok to note the negative tendency of Miller B's, but before taking the 4 day track of a model verbatim now, I would wait to see if the GGEM/Euro/Ensembles show this. Right now, we're close to an inch of QPF with a snow profile. Let's hold for right now. ya but how did this go from a Miller A to a Miller B so fast? Thats the problem. its 4 days out and its already showing a Miller B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 recap 18z miller shiat 0z miller a bomb 6z miller a bomb 12z miller b late bomb 18z Miller B Fook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't this the best 500 track we've seen for any of the threats this year at 5 days out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 This is a good depiction of how Miller Bs can actually work out for the region. Clearly the models are still waffling all over the place so no need to get too down or too up on this yet. All models have been awful this year. Verbatim, this was a good run for snow from richmond north. North carolina gets the typical DC snowhole this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 No offense but you guys have been majorly model hugging over the last 24 hrs. LOL...6 hrs ago you all were mad because it was DEFINETLY going to rain and now it's a completely different track and idea. Guys at this point everything is still on the table...let it play out...for goodness sake! You are 10 times as worse as accuweather...can you guys just try to enjoy the meteorology of this just a little bit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTutton Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 My first post, hope I don't get paddled all Dazed and Confused style.... I am not really seeing a hammer in DC, more of a nice .5ish at DCA. MDES looks to get hammered-ish. That being said, I would CERTAINLY take this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't this the best 500 track we've seen for any of the threats this year at 5 days out? on day 5 paper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't this the best 500 track we've seen for any of the threats this year at 5 days out? You are correct. If it holds that look we will be in good shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 ya but how did this go from a Miller A to a Miller B so fast? Thats the problem. its 4 days out and its already showing a Miller B. I'm not so sure it ever was a classic Miller A look at last night's 0Z run it shows in these 2 panels that its a northern stream vort that was proged to come way south this run, it just isn't coming as far south http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer//gfs/00/gfs_500072090_l.shtml http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer//gfs/00/gfs_500096114_l.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 This is a good depiction of how Miller Bs can actually work out for the region. Clearly the models are still waffling all over the place so no need to get too down or too up on this yet. All models have been awful this year. Verbatim, this was a good run for snow from richmond north. North carolina gets the typical DC snowhole this run. Agree. We need to stop whining and see where the other models go from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Way too soon to jump off the cart here. I'd like to see what the other models have to say first, but if this ends up being yet ANOTHER damn c-tease of a storm it'll be frustrating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Not every miller b hoses us. Just a lot of them. Reading the kocin book at least opened my eyes to the fact that if it re-develops far enough south we have a shot. Yaneverknow. At the least ian, the pattern sure doesn't want to give us an easy over-running 4 inch storm this year... valid point on overruning. im just looking for something that wont screw me personally. the 'miller a' bomb probably would, the miller b solution sure leaves that door wide open since 9 out of 10 are not that good here. regardless no one knows wtf is going to happen so not much has changed. there's a chance of precip i guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 You are correct. If it holds that look we will be in good shape. Yeah IF this does turn out to be a Miller B this isn't a bad starting point for the track. At least it'd be likely we'd make out with some snow if not a lot. But I want to wait on other models before I start thinking of this as another Miller B threat. Fun period of tracking ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcwx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 My first post, hope I don't get paddled all Dazed and Confused style.... I am not really seeing a hammer in DC, more of a nice .5ish at DCA. MDES looks to get hammered-ish. That being said, I would CERTAINLY take this run. Total storm looks to be around .75-.85 DCA, unless I am looking at the wrong map... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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