ravensrule Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 no, there goes the nads storm out to sea http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_090m.gif I at least thought the Nads would show some blue . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Looks like the Psuhoffman storm is on life support at this point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Looks like the Psuhoffman storm is on life support at this point... The Euro, GGEM, and UKMET all have it. It is just that the GFS, which has been good lately, refuses to budge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 12Z GFS threatening at 126HR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Looks like another miss. Not giving me much confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 it's better at the surface than it was.. tho the high is drifting east out to sea and 500 is pretty convoluted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Looks like another miss. Not giving me much confidence. Depends on the miss. Is it missing in the same manner every other storm has this winter? Or is it just sliding it OTS? If it's the latter, that would be a new miss, and maybe something to watch for moving north as the model deals with the energy over the next several days.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 snow to rain, little more organized but meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 GFS looks to have the Euro idea of snow to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 At this point, I would be thrilled with a front end thump of two or three inches and then some rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 GFS is a mess through 150HR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 At this point, I would be thrilled with a front end thump of two or three inches and then some rain. Not sure it would be plain rain up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 GFS is a mess through 150HR. psuhoffman will have a photoshopped 500 map soon circling areas the gfs is making up/wrong with so that the storm can still happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Not sure it would be plain rain up here. we'll probably end up with another yodastorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 gives dc a little love at 168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 With a trough that positively tilted there's no wonder why the storm looks like a hot mess. Starting to go neutral by 150 but... too late? Probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 It's certainly better, but it looks like a bad hangover hours 138 to 150 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 With a trough that positively tilted there's no wonder why the storm looks like a hot mess. Starting to go neutral by 150 but... too late? Probably. yeah. It stays positively titled after it passes the MS River. That's too late for a coast-hugger. GFS can't seem to decide which stream is going to dominate so it sort of splits the difference. I'd still say this was a small step in the right direction, but a long way to go to the PSUHoffman storm of redemption. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Takes forever but eventually turns into a nice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 It certainly continues a winter pattern of making people wait run to run for the models to get a handle on the various elements making up each preciptation event threat. One of the amazing things about last winter (aside from the storms themselves) was how well the models were able to signal something big was coming many days ahead of the event. While the details were always being worked out, you could see the set-up for the storms well ahead of time. This year, under this regime, much messier modeling and more frustrating to follow. All of which means, when we finally cash in on one of these, it's going to be extra-sweet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 gives dc a little love at 168 forget the love and give us some lust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 It's certainly better, but it looks like a bad hangover hours 138 to 150 Baby steps. Nothing is coming easy this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 gives dc a little love at 168 Ha! That's sweet. Over 0.25" with the upper level vort swinging through. Way more than with the surface storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 the qpf 162-168 is fairly unbelievable given the low location etc. oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 though this will psuhoffman's frame of the run http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_168m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 the qpf 162-168 is fairly unbelievable given the low location etc. oh well. Details at this point. Need the southern energy not to hang back. Need to win the dance of northern and southern energies for a change this winter. At least there is still something here to keep an eye on. Not saying the outcome will be different then our parade of misses so far, but, like Red from Shawshank, I need to hold some hope... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 weirdest storm ever but i will take it. Wonder what it would show if it didnt leave that energy behind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 weirdest storm ever but i will take it. Wonder what it would show if it didnt leave that energy behind Miller A bomb giving us a 8-12" thump and then some mix at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 .75" qpf at BWI and only about.15" is mix with the rest as snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 looks like the cras was right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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