PhineasC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 i know ppl are excited but history says you dont want a giant low right on your doorstep in this range. with minimal blocking and the positioning of it, it's going to want to go inland if the solution holds. not that it will but there is a reason people say they dont want to be in the bullseye 4/5 days out as you know. We will probably get screwed, but at least it will be different and maybe some can get a solid thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
insanegrenade Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 We will probably get screwed, but at least it will be different and maybe some can get a solid thump. Don't be a debbydowner. Even though we might get screwed, as stated earlier....this is the most credible threat for snow we have had all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 im psyched about my rain.im hoping for a flash flood. might need this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Don't be a debbydowner. Even though we might get screwed, as stated earlier....this is the most credible threat for snow we have had all winter. When I get too optimistic Ian calls me a weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 As I've said before I'll take my chances with temps this year given moisture has been so hard to come by.. Absolutely. Rolling of the snow/no snow dice hasn't worked for us this year so I'm very enthusiastic about rolling the rain/snow dice instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 might need this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
insanegrenade Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 When I get too optimistic Ian calls me a weenie. I'm somewhat new to the forum and the term weenie is still something I'm confused about. I'm sure I'll figure it out. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 When I get too optimistic Ian calls me a weenie. no, i just think something is amiss this yr with some (many?) people's logic. it might all be in my head. granted i did not really want the big storm idea to come to play so maybe im frustrated it seems that it has moved that way. imby that's a much better chance for a screwing than the weaker/overruning idea. i guess im not a true snow lover but a few inches turning to heavy rain is not that exciting to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 hatteras is real close to a big snow storm this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 hatteras is real close to a big snow storm this run the NADS will rise again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The DGEX isn't really an extension of the NAM because of the substantially smaller grid (i.e. it gets very a very heavy influence from GFS boundary conditions). Right, thanks. I was only replying to the idea that the NAM being different from its prior run wasn't necessarily a bad thing and was using the only thing available to tie in with the 6z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I'm somewhat new to the forum and the term weenie is still something I'm confused about. I'm sure I'll figure it out. lol. Phineas is a dick when optimistic.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 We will probably get screwed, but at least it will be different and maybe some can get a solid thump. To echo those thoughts, this has giant bust potential on it, but it also has a giant up side. Nothing ventured nothing gained I guess. At least, for now, its a wet solution. That's something we've not seen much of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 no, i just think something is amiss this yr with some (many?) people's logic. it might all be in my head. granted i did not really want the big storm idea to come to play so maybe im frustrated it seems that it has moved that way. imby that's a much better chance for a screwing than the weaker/overruning idea. i guess im not a true snow lover but a few inches turning to heavy rain is not that exciting to me. You know I have been saying I saw two scenarios here: big inland low with rain or OTS. I have zero faith in the strung-out overrunning idea. That hasn't even come close to verifying this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 This run will be epic. Mark my words Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 This run will be epic. Mark my words Now marking, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 This run will be epic. Mark my words do you have a shortcut on your keyboard for this post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 This run will be epic. Mark my words What 3rd party sources have you been talking to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 do you have a shortcut on your keyboard for this post? The same as mine -- Ctrl C and then Ctrl V Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samdman95 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 When it comes to "luck" on this storm, are we in a slump, so it's less likely? Or are we due for a storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 You know I have been saying I saw two scenarios here: big inland low with rain or OTS. I have zero faith in the strung-out overrunning idea. That hasn't even come close to verifying this winter. yeah i guess that's true on the overruning.. it's not just this winter either. this might just be one of those winters where living in d.c. (i'd say east but they did well already in one storm) is no good however you cut it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 When it comes to "luck" on this storm, are we in a slump, so it's less likely? Or are we due for a storm? there is no counter or backlog to fill on storms. they just happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 do you have a shortcut on your keyboard for this post? It's the same macro you use for "meh" and "negative-positive/summary negative" posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 How is it impossible to know wes. how many non frozen possibilities are there, rain??? what else??? I dont get your statement??? Thanks. I guess I was saying it's too early to know whether an changover would be sleet versus rain. I think it too early to say much of anything about the precipitation. Sorry for being unclear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 This run will be epic. Mark my words Epic Rainstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I swear these storms are like the mob, I say I'm done and I'm walking away and want nothing to do with it, and they always find a way to drag me back in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 What 3rd party sources have you been talking to? NCEP and Ender. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 It's the same macro you use for "meh" and "negative-positive/summary negative" posts yeah my thought filled posts are such a waste. im sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I swear these storms are like the mob, I say I'm done and I'm walking away and want nothing to do with it, and they always find a way to drag me back in... You can never leave the family... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Its going back to holding stuff out west again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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