PhineasC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 We've already had events with blocking and locked-in highs and super -NAOs. They all sucked. Time for something different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 this is a different animal though..qpf abounds in places that have been in the hole per the current models. problem is with no blocking and a modified air mass can this thing take a more favorable track along or just off the coast. as it stands now there could be some wet snow west of the fall line, and much more west of that. i guess the ensembles are some good news, although at this time frame i would focus on the pattern. the GFS in previous runs showed a weaker storm, offshore track giving modest snows to I95 and east. But also that High over Quebec stayed anchored there, and that looked rather suspect. Damn. Hard to disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 We've already events with blocking and locked-in highs and super -NAOs. They all sucked. Time for something different. Amen. It's time for something different: http://www.geekologie.com/2010/08/24/toaster-bacon.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 JB thinks any change in the big cites would be from snow to Non snow....not snow to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 We've already events with blocking and locked-in highs and super -NAOs. They all sucked. Time for something different. yeah, like a classic Miller A maybe? it was so easy last winter. and none of those storms had mixing issues/rain unless you were right at the coast. not that they were all classic miller A storms last winter...just how easy it was to get snow versus this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 JB thinks any change in the big cites would be from snow to Non snow....not snow to rain. JB has been terrible this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 yeah, like a classic Miller A maybe? it was so easy last winter. and none of those storms had mixing issues/rain unless you were right at the coast. not that they were all classic miller A storms last winter...just how easy it was to get snow versus this winter. Well, the southern stream was juiced last winter so with the blocking pressing down, those loaded vorts would get "stuck" under the block and smash us. Now, they get all sheared out and squished by the hyper northern stream. IMO, our only legit shot at real snow is to ease off on the blocking and hope for a good track. Those pining for more mega-blocking must not want any snow, because we have already had that plus some good tracks and got nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I'd sure feel more comfortable with a nice 50 50 low in place like we had last year. The lack of that feature is going to make this storm a thread the needle deal for those wanting all snow. That said, anyone saying they think it will be frozen versus snow changing to rain is kidding themselves. This early it's impossible to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 you are such an idiot. and i do believe ,ive had way more snow than you this year, not that that matters. you are as bad as they come as far as a snow weenie. and pretty good with the personal attacks. TROLL. But he is kinda right. I'm not going to call you a troll, but I do remember your consistently pessimistic (and wrong) calls on Eastern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 JB thinks any change in the big cites would be from snow to Non snow....not snow to rain. Verbatim, its a change to rain...but its not as terrible as some might think. Maybe a half and half storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 People seem overly nervous about mixing. We generally don't get big snowstorms (outside of a perfect pattern only Wes could dream up) without folks SE of I-95 and south of DC seeing substantial mixing. How many times do you think Psu will tell we're gonna mix or "have trouble" as if we didn't know this and then say his area looks ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I'd sure feel more comfortable with a nice 50 50 low in place like we had last year. The lack of that feature is going to make this storm a thread the needle deal for those wanting all snow. That said, anyone saying they think it will be frozen versus snow changing to rain is kidding themselves. This early it's impossible to know. Actually wes, I don't think anyone on this thread is banking on all frozen or all snow. Just noting that those saying all rain are premature as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 But he is kinda right. I'm not going to call you a troll, but I do remember your consistently pessimistic (and wrong) calls on Eastern. pessimistic to some, objective to others. and i rarely if ever made "calls". just observations. i don't know enough to make forecasts, but i simply don't wishcast, thats all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 FWIW 09z SREFs at 87 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Actually wes, I don't think anyone on this thread is banking on all frozen or all snow. Just noting that those saying all rain are premature as well. I am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Could someone give me a very brief rundown of the 0z Euro last night? I deciphered from the other thread that it appears to be similar to the GFS but a little colder but still a bit unsure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I'd sure feel more comfortable with a nice 50 50 low in place like we had last year. The lack of that feature is going to make this storm a thread the needle deal for those wanting all snow. That said, anyone saying they think it will be frozen versus snow changing to rain is kidding themselves. This early it's impossible to know. But we still think it will be different this time . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Could someone give me a very brief rundown of the 0z Euro last night? I deciphered from the other thread that it appears to be similar to the GFS but a little colder but still a bit unsure. See PSUhoffman original thread: http://www.americanw...m/page__st__900 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Well, the southern stream was juiced last winter so with the blocking pressing down, those loaded vorts would get "stuck" under the block and smash us. Now, they get all sheared out and squished by the hyper northern stream. IMO, our only legit shot at real snow is to ease off on the blocking and hope for a good track. Those pining for more mega-blocking must not want any snow, because we have already had that plus some good tracks and got nothing. that works better for places NW of the cities. Living in Westminster for 10 years, you can get big snows there with marginal cold and easterly winds when the high slides off as long as the storm doesn't go inland. that doesn't work for the coastal plain, low level E or SE winds will warm the boundary layer every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 But we still think it will be different this time . . . We already had storms this winter with super blocking and mega-cold. They also had good tracks. They still sucked. A snow to rain event might be the best we can do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 See PSUhoffman original thread: http://www.americanw...m/page__st__900 Thanks. Done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I think the morning disco from HPC was a good one. Nice to see they favored the 00z EURO ensemble mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I would argue that most are having a hard time this winter not just him. JB has been terrible this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 pessimistic to some, objective to others. and i rarely if ever made "calls". just observations. i don't know enough to make forecasts, but i simply don't wishcast, thats all. I guess, but you stated that this was a 100% rainstorm for i-95 on the models and that's simply not true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 We already had storms this winter with super blocking and mega-cold. They also had good tracks. They still sucked. A snow to rain event might be the best we can do. Agreed. Maybe one of the smart guys here can list winter storms that brought snow to the I-95 corridor from RIC on north that did indeed thread the needle. That would give me hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I asked this in an earlier thread but don't remember if it was answered. Weather53 used to have a rule of thumb with marginal temp events by looking at the strength and locatation of a high to the northeast. Wasn't it a 1030H in Quebec w/ north winds at the surface here just prior to precip onset? I just want focus on thermal profile and feature placement as we move closer. Eventually I'll be able to make some sort of call outside of model hugging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Grabbed a nugget from our southern friends The 12z NAM is a little further west with the 5H versus 6z runs, over Mt/Idaho. It is starting to look like the initial s/w is going to slow down and be the catalyst for the incoming Plains trough. It should stall the line of precip and begin to develop a low around the northern Gulf later Monday, and thats the low that is very slow to develop waiting on the energy from the 5h to capture it. This would spell a big, slow wallop of a Winter storm in areas that are cold enough, on both sides of the Apps, but west of the Apps at first. With such strong divergence and transfer of energy, the snow would really fly and expand over Ark, Tennessee and southern KY, maybe even n. Miss. and N. Alabama. And the models probably aren't handling the digging right just yet since they all have the strong confluence zone in the Northeast, usually that is a sign that models adjust south later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 errrr... Station ID: KMRB Lat: 39.40 Long: 77.98 GFS Model Run: 0Z 21JAN 2011 HR Valid 2m Tmp 2m Dpt 10m Dir 10m Spd TPrcp CPrcp 1000-500 500mb 850mb 500mb MSLP TCC PRS WX Low Middle High Max Min Sfc Deg F Deg F deg kt in. in. Thk GPH Tmp Tmp mb % TEXT Clouds Clouds Clouds Tmp Tmp Vis 0 01/21 00Z 31 30 151 3 0.04 0.00 536 545 -6.2 -20.6 1010.7 0 CLR CLR CLR **** **** 1.5 6 01/21 06Z 31 31 235 7 0.08 0.00 531 535 -5.6 -24.5 1004.8 100 -SN 014BKN064 119OVC217 231BKN309 32 30 0.5 12 01/21 12Z 21 18 290 15 0.00 0.00 520 527 -12.5 -23.6 1008.5 57 -SN 073SCT088 136SCT183 CLR 31 21 4.9 18 01/21 18Z 18 8 300 18 0.00 0.00 519 528 -18.6 -24.4 1012.0 42 036SCT052 CLR CLR 20 18 20.0 24 01/22 00Z 14 6 297 14 0.00 0.00 520 532 -19.3 -24.0 1016.4 74 -SN 037BKN055 CLR CLR 18 14 20.0 30 01/22 06Z 11 4 308 10 0.00 0.00 519 532 -17.0 -26.5 1018.4 46 034FEW048 182FEW222 222SCT293 14 11 20.0 36 01/22 12Z 9 3 288 3 0.00 0.00 517 531 -15.9 -27.3 1018.8 66 CLR 170SCT215 228BKN285 11 9 20.0 42 01/22 18Z 19 4 326 4 0.00 0.00 517 530 -14.2 -29.4 1016.5 40 CLR CLR 220SCT265 19 9 20.0 48 01/23 00Z 11 5 8 3 0.00 0.00 518 530 -12.0 -29.3 1016.4 1 FEW CLR CLR 20 11 20.0 54 01/23 06Z 13 6 225 5 0.00 0.00 519 531 -13.1 -26.6 1016.5 25 063SCT091 CLR CLR 13 10 20.0 60 01/23 12Z 15 9 271 6 0.00 0.00 521 535 -16.1 -25.3 1017.6 71 -SN 055BKN073 CLR CLR 15 13 10.7 66 01/23 18Z 20 8 309 13 0.00 0.00 521 538 -17.4 -26.3 1021.0 39 -SN 037SCT056 CLR 225FEW287 20 15 20.0 72 01/24 00Z 14 9 324 7 0.00 0.00 520 540 -16.6 -28.2 1026.3 45 039FEW050 201FEW223 223SCT272 21 14 20.0 78 01/24 06Z 9 5 4 4 0.00 0.00 519 540 -14.5 -28.6 1028.7 78 CLR 157BKN208 223BKN262 15 9 17.0 84 01/24 12Z 8 1 58 3 0.00 0.00 518 541 -13.3 -29.9 1031.3 67 CLR 121SCT216 222SCT257 9 8 20.0 90 01/24 18Z 17 1 119 3 0.00 0.00 520 543 -10.5 -29.8 1029.5 56 051FEW111 113SCT193 CLR 17 8 20.0 96 01/25 00Z 12 2 94 3 0.00 0.00 522 545 -8.8 -28.5 1030.6 10 062FEW084 CLR CLR 19 12 20.0 102 01/25 06Z 11 2 117 2 0.00 0.00 524 547 -6.1 -27.5 1030.8 28 097FEW109 178FEW208 228FEW282 13 10 20.0 108 01/25 12Z 13 8 132 2 0.01 0.00 525 549 -5.3 -27.4 1030.2 91 -SN 063BKN109 132BKN198 225BKN285 13 11 6.1 114 01/25 18Z 25 16 151 3 0.01 0.00 528 549 -4.0 -27.3 1026.9 96 -SN 042BKN076 127BKN225 225BKN278 25 13 10.9 120 01/26 00Z 21 19 108 3 0.01 0.00 530 551 -3.4 -26.4 1026.6 94 -SN 035SCT099 174BKN211 227BKN269 27 20 1.0 126 01/26 06Z 23 22 61 2 0.01 0.00 534 553 -1.6 -23.5 1024.5 90 -SN 024BKN070 157FEW185 230SCT324 24 20 0.5 132 01/26 12Z 23 22 24 8 0.02 0.00 537 553 -0.9 -20.6 1018.6 99 -SN 010BKN074 168BKN229 236BKN360 23 23 0.5 138 01/26 18Z 30 30 9 14 0.33 0.00 540 548 0.8 -18.3 1009.2 100 FZRN 007BKN103 129BKN229 232OVC362 31 23 0.5 144 01/27 00Z 32 31 342 16 0.67 0.00 541 542 -0.2 -18.6 999.8 100 SN 007BKN115 115OVC227 229OVC343 32 30 0.5 150 01/27 06Z 33 32 317 18 0.35 0.00 538 537 -1.3 -19.3 998.6 100 RA 022BKN114 117OVC192 232BKN328 33 32 0.7 156 01/27 12Z 25 24 308 17 0.06 0.00 534 536 -1.8 -23.7 1003.0 83 -SN 043BKN111 116BKN160 253BKN312 33 25 2.3 162 01/27 18Z 28 26 308 18 0.00 0.00 530 534 -4.2 -25.1 1004.6 60 039FEW048 152FEW197 228SCT291 28 24 7.9 168 01/28 00Z 23 22 306 10 0.00 0.00 528 534 -9.2 -25.0 1007.7 97 CLR 180SCT216 224OVC291 29 23 6.0 174 01/28 06Z 18 16 306 6 0.00 0.00 526 532 -9.0 -26.9 1008.7 84 CLR 181BKN223 223BKN264 23 18 5.3 180 01/28 12Z 15 13 310 5 0.00 0.00 521 530 -9.8 -29.8 1011.2 64 FEW 159BKN218 221SCT250 17 14 6.3 I'll take my chances with that. Is that available for KOKV? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I'd sure feel more comfortable with a nice 50 50 low in place like we had last year. The lack of that feature is going to make this storm a thread the needle deal for those wanting all snow. That said, anyone saying they think it will be frozen versus snow changing to rain is kidding themselves. This early it's impossible to know. How is it impossible to know wes. how many non frozen possibilities are there, rain??? what else??? I dont get your statement??? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 How is it impossible to know wes. how many non frozen possibilities are there, rain??? what else??? I dont get your statement??? Thanks. His post was pretty clear. He just meant we can't nail down precip types at 120 hours out. Not hard to grasp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.