Ellinwood Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 those model generated snowfall maps are always laughable I know, but I find it fun to post them every once in awhile, especially when it shows a hilarious result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Verbatim, the models already give a lot of snow to places not far NW of Baltimore and DC. You are off base with the notion the area is not even close to a snowstorm on the models. That just isn't true, hence me saying you were trolling. ok. fair enough. we shall see what happens. and just one more point- i have lived in Baltimore, Westminster, and now the eastern shore. I am well aware of the climatology here in MD. Also, I dont live at the beach dude, or in Salisbury. The average annual snowfall for here(actually 10 miles south officially) is 18.5 inches. more than DC proper and as much as many places over on the other side south of BWI. just a lil education for ya ;] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 There are a disturbing number of worries with this system. Those three notwithstanding, it'd be reasonable to add in the potential for a much further west track than that shown by either the 0Z EC or GFS. Still, things can change. I guess the only caveat being, they seem likelier to change towards the left rather than right. agreed. a weaker storm would help some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 There are a disturbing number of worries with this system. Those three notwithstanding, it'd be reasonable to add in the potential for a much further west track than that shown by either the 0Z EC or GFS. Still, things can change. I guess the only caveat being, they seem likelier to change towards the left rather than right. Are you talking an earlier phase and having it run inland? Wouldn't the more likelier scenario be the northern shortwave doesn't dig as deep as what the models show and we end up with no phase and a NADS 2? Seems that has been the theme of this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 There are a disturbing number of worries with this system. Those three notwithstanding, it'd be reasonable to add in the potential for a much further west track than that shown by either the 0Z EC or GFS. Still, things can change. I guess the only caveat being, they seem likelier to change towards the left rather than right. There are 1,000 worries with every system. We need a few cycles to digest this new look on the models. This time yesterday the GFS and GGEM were showing a weak OTS mess and the Euro was a western outlier. Let's wait a while before we bite off our fingers with worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 There are 1,000 worries with every system. We need a few cycles to digest this new look on the models. This time yesterday the GFS and GGEM were showing a weak OTS mess and the Euro was a western outlier. Let's wait a while before we bite off our fingers with worry. Sweet jeebus, yes. Let's just all stow "worry" and simply enjoy a day of watching the models handle a potentially dynamic system. This beats the crap out of having the next Tuesday through Thursday period modeled as cold and dry. Something to keep an eye, that's a nice development for the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Every single time we have been screwed this winter, it was because the 500 energy went too far north and the storm blew up northeast of us, leaving us fringed. I am personally happy to see the heavy QPF in the area with the precip fringe out in the mountains. Nice change of pace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Funny that everyone is saying this is going to screw I95 east and it's still 100+ out. LOL. The storm is simply not going to hold that track. Come on everyone. This only has to shift maybe 50-100 miles in 100hrs to be a MECS for all the cities and everyone already jumping off bridges? It actually could just as easily shift 50-100 miles west and really screw everybody. Just let it play out. We really won't know the exact track until 36 hrs out and then we'll be able to iron out qpf. I personally think all the models are too slow developing this storm. The high will not be as far off the coast at the onset as modeled. I'm honestly stoked about this storm rain or snow. It's weather! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 euro and ggem ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 hoffman, looks like the operational runs are still far west/warm outliers. That Euro ensemble track looks nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 hoffman, looks like the operational runs are still far west/warm outliers. That Euro ensemble track looks nice. Yup. And like you said, the way this thing is setting up has a far better chance of getting us in some decent QPF than the Miller B(usts) that have been the norm so far this winter. Also, we've seen these events shift 100 miles in a matter of one run before and we're what 50 or so miles from DC/Balt corridor getting in on all snow. I'll take tracking this event over tracking a Miller B(ust). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 hoffman, looks like the operational runs are still far west/warm outliers. That Euro ensemble track looks nice. I do think temps are the bigger concern this time for a change, but I am not as worried about it yet as some. The oz euro and 6z gfs should be a red flag to those screaming this will be rain. Look how inland the low tracks on both of those solutions, yet even the cities get a good bit a snow on both. The GFS tracks the low up the coastal plain yet the warm surge has trouble making it west of 95. This indicates there will be enough cold that if it takes a good track we will do ok. The 0z GFS with that track and warm temps was a fluke run IMHO. Euro temp profile makes more sense. Now if it cuts like the UK, that would be a problem... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 hoffman, looks like the operational runs are still far west/warm outliers. That Euro ensemble track looks nice. Yeah the Euro ensemble track is pretty much perfect for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I do think temps are the bigger concern this time for a change, but I am not as worried about it yet as some. The oz euro and 6z gfs should be a red flag to those screaming this will be rain. Look how inland the low tracks on both of those solutions, yet even the cities get a good bit a snow on both. The GFS tracks the low up the coastal plain yet the warm surge has trouble making it west of 95. This indicates there will be enough cold that if it takes a good track we will do ok. The 0z GFS with that track and warm temps was a fluke run IMHO. Euro temp profile makes more sense. Now if it cuts like the UK, that would be a problem... People seem overly nervous about mixing. We generally don't get big snowstorms (outside of a perfect pattern only Wes could dream up) without folks SE of I-95 and south of DC seeing substantial mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 People seem overly nervous about mixing. We generally don't get big snowstorms (outside of a perfect pattern only Wes could dream up) without folks SE of I-95 and south of DC seeing substantial mixing. Absolutely true. Anything that wraps up like what's being depicted always brings (exception being last year) mixing down my way. PDII was sleeting for 10 hours at the height with temps in the mid teens. Of course, very early in the game here and we will see waffling all over the place. Just don't make this a cutter, please! Just wild how we saw models 12 hrs earlier showing weak, stretched out features, now only to bring it together into a powerhouse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 People seem overly nervous about mixing. We generally don't get big snowstorms (outside of a perfect pattern only Wes could dream up) without folks SE of I-95 and south of DC seeing substantial mixing. I agree. Mixing is the norm for big storms. Even as far west as Loudoun County in NOVA it is "normal" to have some mixing in the bigger events. As modeled, this storm would be a crushing blow to the Shenandoah Valley. Of course you can lock it in because i will be on business travel next week and am destined to miss every storm this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 There are 1,000 worries with every system. We need a few cycles to digest this new look on the models. This time yesterday the GFS and GGEM were showing a weak OTS mess and the Euro was a western outlier. Let's wait a while before we bite off our fingers with worry. Not last year. I'm certainly not writing this off, yet. Just saying I'm very confident that we're heading for a massive storm somewhere in the eastern third of the U.S. There's reasonable risk of an earlier phase. If that weren't enough we also have a fairly open OV/GL. These are more than "worries", they're climatogically favkred events/tracks, especially in a Nina. A wrapped up 988mb bowling ball with 28" of snow in Leesburg, 8" at IAD and 0" at DCA is so unlikely that I doubt it's ever happened. Not to mention that when the EC/GFS/GGEM look as they did last night things usually end-up well west along the Apps or, usually, through the OV. The other, less frequent, outcome is a failed phase and OTS off Fl/GA/SC. Since I think phasing is nearly inevitable I'm obviously worried about the former. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 ...an unreasonable worry IMO, is that the EC/GFS/GGEM will verify even remotely close to as shown last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Yeah the Euro ensemble track is pretty much perfect for us. That it most certainly is. A number of the members appear to look a lot like the OP. Many, however, are EAST and Along The Coast (can we just say ATC for short from now on?) EDIT: fixed "west" with "EAST" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 That it most certainly is. A number of the members appear to look a lot like the OP. Many, however, are west and Along The Coast (can we just say ATC for short from now on?) It can't be that many that are further west unless a good number are east since the mean is definitely SE of the operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 ...an unreasonable worry IMO, is that the EC/GFS/GGEM will verify even remotely close to as shown last night. odds are that those who have done well this year will again, and those that have not won't do any better with this system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 odds are that those who have done well this year will again, and those that have not won't do any better with this system People are going to get the impression that I am Mr. Negative and I don't want it to snow. I do. But I agree with you here mitchnick. It's best to temper any enthusiasm until proven otherwise. Plus ... I live in Annapolis... all the runs thus far have given me a fair amount of rain. Selfish to say that? Yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 It can't be that many that are further west unless a good number are east since the mean is definitely SE of the operational. I meant EAST...hence the reason I said "Along The [Atlantic] Coast". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I meant EAST...hence the reason I said "Along The Atlantic Coast". Oh, I thought you were thinking "coastal hugger" which is still not ideal for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Oh, I thought you were thinking "coastal hugger" which is still not ideal for us. Nah, a lot of them look just off the coast, some are a bit east of that cluster and some of them look just like the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Bullish PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD820 AM EST FRI JAN 21 2011 VALID 12Z TUE JAN 25 2011 - 12Z FRI JAN 28 2011 THE MODELS/ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW THE MEAN MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGEMOVING SLOWLY INTO THE WEST AND THE MEAN TROUGH PERSISTING IN THEEASTERN AND CENTRAL US. AN INITIAL WAVE AMPLIFYING IN THE EASTLEADS TO A CONSENSUS CYCLONE DEVELOPING AND MOVING OUT OF THE GULFOF MEXICO AND NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST TUE 25 JAN TO THU 27JAN/DAYS 4-6/. A CONSENSUS APPROACH AMONG THE 06Z GFS/00ZECMWF/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS USED TO MITIGATE DIFFERENCESWITHIN THE SUITE OF SOLUTIONS. EAST...THE UKMET/CANADIAN GLOBAL/GFS/ECMWF ALL HAVE A LOW ORIGINATING INTHE GULF OF MEXICO WHICH REDEVELOPS ALONG OR JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND INTENSIFIESQUICKLY AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AWIDESPREAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/MIDATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND...WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN ON THE COASTAND HEAVY SNOW FURTHER INLAND. THE PRIMARY DIFFERENCES ARE FROM THE TIMING OF THE CYCLONEPROGRESSION UP THE COAST. THE SLOWEST UKMET/CANADIAN GLOBAL SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO BE DUE TOITS HIGHER AMPLITUDE STARTING WHEN THE 500 MB WAVE CROSSES CO 12ZMON INTO THE TX PANHANDLE 12Z TUE. THE REMAINDER OF THEMODELS/ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE A LOWER AMPLITUDE WAVE AND THUS FASTERTIMING. THE 00-06Z GFS/00Z ECMWF HAVE A 500 MB WAVE CROSSING THE NORTHERNPLAINS TUE NIGHT AND INTO THE MID MS VALLEY BY WED/OH VALLEY THU. THIS WAVE SHOULD ACT AS A 'KICKER' TO EJECT THE CLOSED LOW MOVINGUP THE EAST COAST. CONSEQUENTLY...THE FASTER TREND IN THE 06Z GFSAND 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE VIEWED AS PLAUSIBLE SOLUTIONS. TOMITIGATE THE TIMING DIFFERENCES...A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/00ZECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE 06Z GFS WAS USED. THE MINORITY OF THE 00-06Z GEFS MEMBERS HAVE THE CYCLONE NEAR THECOAST...SO IT IS THE LAST SET OF THE GUIDANCE PACKAGE TO SHOW ACHANCE OF AN OFFSHORE LOW SOLUTION. WITH THE ENTIRE DETERMINISTICGUIDANCE SUITE SHOWING A LOW CLOSE TO THE COAST(UKMETINLAND)...AND THE MEAN 500 MB TROUGH FURTHER WEST OVER THE CENTRALUS...THE GEFS MEAN WAS ASSIGNED A LOW PROBABILITY OF OCCURRING.CONFIDENCE IS STILL A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO CONTINUINGSHIFTS IN THE SUITE OF SOLUTIONS. BETTER AGREEMENT OF THE LOW DEVELOPING IS OFFSET BY DIFFERENCES IN TROUGH PHASING/TIMING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 euro and ggem ensembles What's not shown is 126hr over ORF and 132hr just east of OXB. It'd be simply delightful... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 odds are that those who have done well this year will again, and those that have not won't do any better with this system this is a different animal though..qpf abounds in places that have been in the hole per the current models. problem is with no blocking and a modified air mass can this thing take a more favorable track along or just off the coast. as it stands now there could be some wet snow west of the fall line, and much more west of that. i guess the ensembles are some good news, although at this time frame i would focus on the pattern. the GFS in previous runs showed a weaker storm, offshore track giving modest snows to I95 and east. But also that High over Quebec stayed anchored there, and that looked rather suspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Who knows how it will play out, but if, and not being negative, the worst happens, and this storm goes the way of our previous storms, won't it be ironic if Psuhoffman has to come into the thread and kill the Psuhoffman storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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