NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The 0z models snorted crack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 06Z GFS is almost an all-snow HECS to 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I'm not gonna get sad about the track at this point. Given the huge issues with qpf we've had all winter, step one is moisture. There's plenty of time to see if we can hold some cold air and get some of this next stuff to fall as snow. My largest snowfall this year at my house is two inches. It won't take much to beat that, even if two inches of rain fall in and during the event with a little snow at the front and/or back. What I refuse to do is wring my hands and b**ch and moan for the next few days at how warm it might be modeled. That's a detail that will be fluid and hard to model and if the storm comes, something that we will just have to accept as a part of this set-up. And, yes, it may rain, and we may miss it, but that is hardly set in stone now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 this is a huge rainstorm for the metro areas....mountains would get crushed with snow. The pattern is not a good one for snow for I-95 by then. No blocking to speak of, high pressure sliding off the coast. with a strong low and the high in that position you get strong SE flow at low levels...way too warm for snow. my point is this is not even close to being a snow event as depicted by the models at this point unless you are well inland and at elevation. A lot would have to change....but if you strep back and look at the pattern evolving, the inland track the models are currently showing makes sense. Yeah, you'd get all rain on the eastern shore. Pretty bold call otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 06Z GFS is almost an all-snow HECS to 95. I love it when you talk dirty to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I'm not gonna get sad about the track at this point. Given the huge issues with qpf we've had all winter, step one is moisture. There's plenty of time to see if we can hold some cold air and get some of this next stuff to fall as snow. My largest snowfall this year at my house is two inches. It won't take much to beat that, even if two inches of rain fall in and during the event with a little snow at the front and/or back. What I refuse to do is wring my hands and b**ch and moan for the next few days at how warm it might be modeled. That's a detail that will be fluid and hard to model and if the storm comes, something that we will just have to accept as a part of this set-up. And, yes, it may rain, and we may miss it, but that is hardly set in stone now. Cape is an old troll. He's on the eastern shore so he gets heavy rain no matter what. Expect him to crap all over this event now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I'll take precip here. If it's rain, fine. Since December 2, 0.84 is the precip total here. You'd think the Shenandoah Valley was in the rainshadow of the Himalayas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I'll take precip here. If it's rain, fine. Since December 2, 0.84 is the precip total here. You'd think the Shenandoah Valley was in the rainshadow of the Himalayas. Sadly, I'm OK with rain, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Cape is an old troll. He's on the eastern shore so he gets heavy rain no matter what. Expect him to crap all over this event now. you are such an idiot. and i do believe ,ive had way more snow than you this year, not that that matters. you are as bad as they come as far as a snow weenie. and pretty good with the personal attacks. TROLL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iammrben Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The legacy of a storm that has not yet occurred. Good thread title. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Cape is an old troll. He's on the eastern shore so he gets heavy rain no matter what. Expect him to crap all over this event now. Eh, thanks Phineas. My brain cells have let slide who does that in the region. Good for a refresher. Given that he probably got a foot on 12/26, I really don't want to hear it from him. I liked this from you on the old thread, and agree, as modeled: 06Z GFS is almost an all-snow HECS to 95. I just like that the Euro and GFS are seizing on the same solution at this point. Both keying on the same s/w, and both showing a lot of moisure to us with it. It's apparently going to not be a perfect set-up with temps, but, hey, at least we have a chance. I just wish, if I could have a board wish, that people (and by people, I mean weenies) would chill with the posts complaining about temps that are basically asking for their hands to be held and comforted as the event, whatever it is, draws near. I declare that this needs to be a thread wherever wears their big boy/big girl pants and simply discusses the set-up and waits to see what happens without the ceasless complaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Yeah, you'd get all rain on the eastern shore. Pretty bold call otherwise. yeah you better go to your little hideout in western MD for this one snow weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Eh, thanks Phineas. My brain cells have let slide who does that in the region. Good for a refresher. Given that he probably got a foot on 12/26, I really don't want to hear it from him. I liked this from you on the old thread, and agree, as modeled: I just like that the Euro and GFS are seizing on the same solution at this point. Both keying on the same s/w, and both showing a lot of moisure to us with it. It's apparently going to not be a perfect set-up with temps, but, hey, at least we have a chance. I just wish, if I could have a board wish, that people (and by people, I mean weenies) would chill with the posts complaining about temps that are basically asking for their hands to be held and comforted as the event, whatever it is, draws near. I declare that this needs to be a thread wherever wears their big boy/big girl pants and simply discusses the set-up and waits to see what happens without the ceasless complaining. Phineas has no clue how to read a model, and does not understand patterns. he is a pure wish caster who always thinks every storm is snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 yeah you better go to your little hideout in western MD for this one snow weenie. One more small adjustment east and I'm mostly snow here. You don't think that can happen in 120 hours? Bold call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 There is a bit more snow potential to the 1/25 - 1/26 event than some are suggesting. Rule of thumb is to follow the upper air set up this far out and do not worry about surface features until within 48-72 hours. It is still too early to completely trust placement of the 850 but someone 50 to 100 miles to north and west will get clobbered. Right now, the I-81 corridor is favored but give it time. Even with current depiction, west side of the big cities get accumulating snow before a little warm up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Phineas has no clue how to read a model, and does not understand patterns. he is a pure wish caster who always thinks every storm is snow. I hit the troll's nerve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Phineas has no clue how to read a model, and does not understand patterns. he is a pure wish caster who always thinks every storm is snow. This is already old. Why are you ruining this thread as it starts? Please take it to PM, but otherwise, please stop with this. We have a system to keep an eye. It's four days out. Temps will be an issue. I doubt there is anything more that you can say with certainty about that. And, "looks wet" or "it's gonna rain" or "epic rain" are just variations on a trolling theme and no more based in reality than "pure snow" or "biblical snow" or "two feet easy" as no one has any idea what solution is on the table at this point. Looks like a wide range of solutions are on the table, and that in itself should make for a fun couple of days for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Lets go over the 0z models one more time. For Balt/DC 0z GFS Precip Type:Snow/Ice to Heavy Rain to flurries QPF:Over 2 inches 0z GGEM Precip Type:Probally mostly rain looking at 850mb QPF:Most likely at least an inch 0z UKMET looks like it would be inland at 144hrs 0z ECMWF looked good MEH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 There is a bit more snow potential to the 1/25 - 1/26 event than some are suggesting. Rule of thumb is to follow the upper air set up this far out and do not worry about surface features until within 48-72 hours. It is still too early to completely trust placement of the 850 but someone 50 to 100 miles to north and west will get clobbered. Right now, the I-81 corridor is favored but give it time. Even with current depiction, west side of the big cities get accumulating snow before a little warm up. I agree. This is not very far from being almost all snow to 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 All, please take this discussion to the new thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I agree. This is not very far from being almost all snow to 95. Most importantly, it has qpf. So we have a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Defiantly still changes to rain on 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Sadly, I'm OK with rain, too. Why anyone on this board would be OK with rain is beyond me (unless you hate snow, which few, if any, on here do). If someone could guarantee that 2 inches of rain now would result in us getting massive snow later this winter, yes, maybe then. But there are no such guarantees. Seems like for once we may get a storm that is already strong when it arrives in our area, but its timing is all off. If anyone said that we would go through almost all of Dec and Jan with no rain and well below normal temps, I would assume we'd have 3 feet of snow by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 One more small adjustment east and I'm mostly snow here. You don't think that can happen in 120 hours? Bold call. sure. you watch every model run as usual. IMO the pattern is wrong. no block, the cold airmass coming in now- will be modified. and a strong wrapped up low...lots would have to change. could happen. models could be wrong. and in my original post, i was discussiing what the models were currently showing and commenting on the pattern. it seems to fit. but you just love to go on the attack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The 120 hr snowfall ending Friday night via the 06z GFS... (courtesy of MDA/EarthSat) I lol'd at the absurdity of it all. I-95 screw zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The 120 hr snowfall ending Friday night via the 06z GFS... (courtesy of MDA/EarthSat) I lol'd at the absurdity of it all. I-95 screw zone. those model generated snowfall maps are always laughable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 sure. you watch every model run as usual. IMO the pattern is wrong. no block, the cold airmass coming in now- will be modified. and a strong wrapped up low...lots would have to change. could happen. models could be wrong. and in my original post, i was discussiing what the models were currently showing and commenting on the pattern. it seems to fit. but you just love to go on the attack. Verbatim, the models already give a lot of snow to places not far NW of Baltimore and DC. You are off base with the notion the area is not even close to a snowstorm on the models. That just isn't true, hence me saying you were trolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Why anyone on this board would be OK with rain is beyond me (unless you hate snow, which few, if any, on here do). If someone could guarantee that 2 inches of rain now would result in us getting massive snow later this winter, yes, maybe then. But there are no such guarantees. Seems like for once we may get a storm that is already strong when it arrives in our area, but its timing is all off. If anyone said that we would go through almost all of Dec and Jan with no rain and well below normal temps, I would assume we'd have 3 feet of snow by now. well a nice heavy rain would wash the excessive amounts of salt off the roads, and my car lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 IMO the pattern is wrong. no block, the cold airmass coming in now- will be modified. and a strong wrapped up low...lots would have to change. There are a disturbing number of worries with this system. Those three notwithstanding, it'd be reasonable to add in the potential for a much further west track than that shown by either the 0Z EC or GFS. Still, things can change. I guess the only caveat being, they seem likelier to change towards the left rather than right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Curlyq Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 What is the timing for this snow/rain event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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