I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I have a feeling this goes one of two ways, from here it could trend into a lakes cutter, or it will trend back towards the coast. I could see it going either way but I do not think it remains as the models show it tonight. Strongly agree. One thing seems likely is our QPF drought will be over either way. The only weenie hope is that an east seasonal trend will keep us in the right position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Euro and GFS look very similar in the height field through 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 precip is much slower this run getting here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Euro at 96: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 hr 114 1012 low over northern fla 0c to southern va trough is almost neutral as it crossed the miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 This thing looks like it will bomb out based on the 120 height field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 hr 120 1008 low near the sc coast 0.25 to ric 0c at ric Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 hr 120 1008 low near the sc coast 0.25 to ric 0c at ric What do you think? Looks to me like it is going to bomb out as it crawls up the coast. I only have he 24 hr free stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 hr 126 996 over rdu ric +4 dc 0c ric 1" dc 0.50" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 What do you think? Looks to me like it is going to talk out as it crawls up the coast. I only have he 24 hr free stuff. What does talk out mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 hr 132 988 over lyh oc on top of the low vert stacked ric 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 What does talk out mean? Haha I changed it after I re-read my comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 988 low stalls over ric 0c way off the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Haha I changed it after I re-read my comment. Oh i see now, i thought it was a term i had never heard of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Lol @ tonight's model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 hr 132 988 over lyh oc on top of the low vert stacked ric 2" I'll bring the materials over to construct the ark in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 half of va is 2"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 hr 144 sub 992 off of del nyc to bos getting nailed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 988 low stalls over ric 0c way off the coast I'll bring the materials over to construct the ark massive sled in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Wow. IF the Euro verified that would be a heavy wet snow just glancing at the height fields. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 What do you think? Looks to me like it is going to bomb out as it crawls up the coast. I only have he 24 hr free stuff. yea hell of a bomb takes 6 hours to go from lynchburg to ric the precip maps are insane for the 1"+ coverage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I know this sounds like a weenie comment, and I sorta have to cheer-lead this since its my storm (thanks Ji), but the temperature profiles of the euro seem more correct. The GFS and GGEM both track the H5 low over VA. With that track for the low to get inland it would have to become vertically stacked and occlude, at that point WAA would be halted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hokierulz98 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 What kind of rain/snow mix is RIC looking at if the EURO 2+ inches verifies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I know this sounds like a weenie comment, and I sorta have to cheer-lead this since its my storm (thanks Ji), but the temperature profiles of the euro seem more correct. The GFS and GGEM both track the H5 low over VA. With that track for the low to get inland it would have to become vertically stacked and occlude, at that point WAA would be halted. Does the 850 line ever get north of Baltimore on this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 What kind of rain/snow mix is RIC looking at if the EURO 2+ inches verifies? Richmond gets .17 snow as the low pulls away, before that its about 1.8" of cold rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 What kind of rain/snow mix is RIC looking at if the EURO 2+ inches verifies? I guess the question is, where the is the rain snow line for DC, Balt, York etc and up the coast a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 i will recp in a minute but here are a few totals 2" qpf line goes from emporia, va. to pitt, pa. due east to philly then the coast then back down to the outer banks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I know this sounds like a weenie comment, and I sorta have to cheer-lead this since its my storm (thanks Ji), but the temperature profiles of the euro seem more correct. The GFS and GGEM both track the H5 low over VA. With that track for the low to get inland it would have to become vertically stacked and occlude, at that point WAA would be halted. Not weenie. You definitely want the Euro to verify over the GFS even though it is actually farther W with the upper low since the Euro bombs this out even faster than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 GFS is further south with the track, but warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 ok technically its all rain at DCA because surface temps are around 35 throughout the storm. However, for arguments sake lets say the surface temps are a bit warm at this range on the Euro, according to 850's .46 falls as snow then 1.0 rain then another .9 snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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