Ji Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 Cras has an 889low of Norfolk with precip as far west as Helena Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 <br /><br />I am OK with this for now. At least it is something different to track.<br /> <br /><br /><br />Better than tracking a miller b right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 so now its safe to say that the euro is by itself farther east now lol crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 the ggem seems to like to follow the gfs I am not ready yet to believe that a H5 low like that over central VA is going to be that warm. Just like when I knew H5 was bad and I waited for the surface to get it right, I know that h5 looks good, and hopefully the surface will come around. It actually has the surface low west of the H5 low. No one else finds that a little screwy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Cras has an 889low of Norfolk with precip as far west as Helena ggem 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 ggem 144 damn, all that QPF, and too damn warm what a waste Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcwx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 ...it's a joke? The -42 degrees is not a joke... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I am not ready yet to believe that a H5 low like that over central VA is going to be that warm. Just like when I knew H5 was bad and I waited for the surface to get it right, I know that h5 looks good, and hopefully the surface will come around. It actually has the surface low west of the H5 low. No one else finds that a little screwy? i think it goes negative a little too early and we never fully recoup. im not sure it's worth that much more thought right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 So basically every model now except the GFS ensembles point to a pretty big storm -- just a question of rain or snow. When's the last time there has been even this much consistency 5 days out that a big storm was possible. Still, some of these runs foreshadow major flood potential in New England with their snow-pack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 dewpoint looks a little goofy CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS BAUDETTE PTCLDY -30 32 100 CALM 30.09F FLAG ISLAND PTCLDY -24 -29 76 CALM 30.07F INTL FALLS PTCLDY -41 32 100 SW3 30.07R They stop measuring dew point when it gets too cold. I want to say -34C. The 32 they have there is a replacement value since it is null in the METAR. KINL 210455Z AUTO 23003KT 10SM CLR M41/ A3007 RMK AO2 SLP237 T1406 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The -42 degrees is not a joke... I'm aware. I was referring to the "ship it out east" comment. There are indeed temps that low out there right now. Extreme yes? But unbelievable no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 <br /><br />i think it goes negative a little too early and we never fully recoup. im not sure it's worth that much more thought right now.<br /> <br /><br /><br />Where is Leesburg. Did he quit the board cause he got a glaze? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 So basically every model now except the GFS ensembles point to a pretty big storm -- just a question of rain or snow. When's the last time there has been even this much consistency 5 days out that a big storm was possible. Still, some of these runs foreshadow major flood potential in New England with their snow-pack the euro storm isnt quite the same type of storm, though the euro did show a big storm yesterday--sorta like this but further east. there is not much consistency at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 if euro comes farther inland, then i might have to go by a better rain guage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 <br /><br /><br /> Where is Leesburg. Did he quit the board cause he got a glaze? he's probably sleeping right now... he's been kinda huffy lately. are you posting from an ipad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 <br /><br />he's probably sleeping right now... he's been kinda huffy lately. <img src='http://img.amwx.us/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/sad.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt='' /><br /> <br /> are you posting from an ipad?<br /> <br /><br /><br />iPod touch use taptalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 he's probably sleeping right now... he's been kinda huffy lately. are you posting from an ipad? Probably that or an iPod touch. Ji's posts are 10x more annoying now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 if euro comes farther inland, then i might have to go by a better rain guage Someone here might seriously kill themselves if that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 Can't this storm produce it's own cold air? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Someone here might seriously kill themselves if that happens. lol yep, all kinds of weenies will be jumping off bridges Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 from a meteorological standpoint, it would be an amazing storm that id like to see form, rain or snow, but... id rather see snow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Can't this storm produce it's own cold air? sure why not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 the euro storm isnt quite the same type of storm, though the euro did show a big storm yesterday--sorta like this but further east. there is not much consistency at all. At least, it's been at least a whole day since Ji or someone produced any model showing a dry/snow hole over the Mid-Atlantic. That in itself is progress, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I'm aware. I was referring to the "ship it out east" comment. There are indeed temps that low out there right now. Extreme yes? But unbelievable no. It dropped 11 degrees in the last hour. I am hoping for some -50 readings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 It dropped 11 degrees in the last hour. I am hoping for some -50 readings. EXPOSED FLESH WILL FREEZE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 UKIE came in way west as well low over western nc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 UKIE came in way west as well low over western nc Euro will be west for sure. Question now is whether this is for real. An inland running storm would certainly be fitting. Perhaps this is just destined to be a rain event. It happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 UKIE came in way west as well low over western nc Yipe...that's a red flag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Until the S/W getsw onshore all solutions are equally likey. I Wouldn't be suprised to see models go back to a cutoff . I don't want to here "I don't buy this solution" or any crap like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Euro will be west for sure. Question now is whether this is for real. An inland running storm would certainly be fitting. Perhaps this is just destined to be a rain event. It happens. I have a feeling this goes one of two ways, from here it could trend into a lakes cutter, or it will trend back towards the coast. I could see it going either way but I do not think it remains as the models show it tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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