winter_warlock Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I'm talking about the intensity of the coastal low. How many storms do you know of that place a 986mb low just east of DC? I'd welcome a better storm to compare this GFS run to, maybe the january 2000 storm? jan 2000 storm was farther east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 Weenies went from Feb 2003 to March 1993 today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I'm talking about the intensity of the coastal low. How many storms do you know of that place a 986mb low just east of DC? I'd welcome a better storm to compare this GFS run to, maybe the january 2000 storm? Again - as baro said, surface isn't the only thing you can compare. There are many ways you can get a strong surface low but the other levels may look very different. It's the same premise of the NADS storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 until there is continuity of either several ensuring runs or other globals looking the same this run has minimal support. i agree, wayyy different than 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The operational is clearly a super outlier from the ensembles. Safe to say you can toss it for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 GFS caves to the Euro in a sense...things are back to normal? If the OP has ensemble support, & the EURO/GGEM packages have a storm, perhaps its time to start? EDIT: Ensembles look meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 GGEM Similar to about 150 miles west of the 00z euro in WY at 84hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The operational is clearly a super outlier from the ensembles. Safe to say you can toss it for now. Yep, those means indicate that a healthy dosing of members don't have much at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 ens mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 GFS caves to the Euro in a sense...things are back to normal? If the OP has ensemble support, & the EURO/GGEM packages have a storm, perhaps its time to start? Look at the ensemble. Also, can't say something caved this far out. It could just as easily swing in either direction. There are no winners here..yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pojrzsho Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Seriously?? how many miles is that difference? Crazy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 GFS caves to the Euro in a sense...things are back to normal? If the OP has ensemble support, & the EURO/GGEM packages have a storm, perhaps its time to start? EDIT: Ensembles look meh. The only cave might be the initial handling of the sw that goes ape on the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 ens mean Looks close! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 When did the last ensembles run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Yep, those means indicate that a healthy dosing of members don't have much at all. Not only that, but just a very unusual development and progression of the height field. Quite honestly the chance of that GFS run verbatim is probably less than 2%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 jan 2000 storm was farther east Hey your never going to find an exact match. But those are the storms that come to mind with "similar" not exact setups. FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 GGEM's gonna be close to the GFS...close to the coast it looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 hi heading out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcwx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The ensemble mean total precip is still pretty nice and its much colder. I don't believe the OP verbatim but I think some of the members have also caught on to the coastal which is an improvement over last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Not all that bad actually, somehow I got the maps from yesterdays 00z. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/00zf132.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Not only that, but just a very unusual development and progression of the height field. Quite honestly the chance of that GFS run verbatim is probably less than 2%. I agree. This ain't going to happen as depicted on this GFS run, but it sure was nice to see the GFS finally lose the idea of holding the 500 energy back in the southwest for a week. Plenty of time to iron out the details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 When did the last ensembles run? What? ....the last ensembles ran with the last run of the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 No me gusta the trends on the High. We need the High man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 hi heading out yep, warmmmm be one for mountains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolineWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 GFS Ensemble mean is much colder and more east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 What? ....the last ensembles ran with the last run of the GFS? Lol word. Rookie mistake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 the bomb idea is problematic.. thread the needle is tough for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 what does DT think of that GFS solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 No me gusta the trends on the High. We need the High man. read more post less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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