Ji Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 Then there has been that seasonal last minute east trend to screw us which we could really use now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Total precip (Any one who believes this run of the GFS has a chance of verifying) is just insane. Fixed MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 No comparison in any way to Superstorm 1993. Ummm, intensity, intense upper level energy, powerful dynamics, and 850,500, 700 closed lows southeast of DC. In 1993 those features tracked right over DC, but this is further east. I'd say there are some similarities, but hey you are entitled to your opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Jb has been comparing this pattern to march 1993 all day Not sure why since this threat in no way compares to one of the largest and most amazing land based baroclinic cyclones in the last 25+ years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timstobrazil Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I think we all get it you sure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 00z gfs looks warm, for anyone 95 and east, need it to go east a bit but id love for the qpf to verify, but its too much of a dramatic change i dont think id beleive the extreme turn around in only 6 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Then there has been that seasonal last minute east trend to screw us which we could really use now Seasonal trend for the win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Gfs 1.32 of snow qpf Leesburg...wet damaging snow How much for DCA, BWI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pojrzsho Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I'm not as smart as u guys but it's hard to fathom long term below avg cold only being interrupted by 3 inches of rain and then right back to below avg cold again....but maybe that's what will happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Ummm, intensity, intense upper level energy, powerful dynamics, and 850,500, 700 closed lows southeast of DC. In 1993 those features tracked right over DC, but this is further east. I'd say there are some similarities, but hey you are entitled to your opinion. No. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/1993/us0314.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Snow or no snow that is one awesome storm the GFS showed. It would almost be worth having it just to watch it develop! Will be an interesting week of model watching. I think it was the 12z GFS seemed to really have the coastel's popping in the long range...lol...like always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 No. http://www.meteo.psu...1993/us0314.php Deeenieddddd by baroclinic_instability lol. Doesn't look that similar to me at all - I'm with baro here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Jb has been comparing this pattern to march 1993 all day JB is always compareing to other great storms, and he over hypes alot( just like margusity) the only thing this storm may have in common is the change over to a mix( if that occurs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Think about this guys: about an hour ago we were sitting here with one of the major models predicting solid snow and the other predicting nonsense OTS. Now we have basically gotten that model to produce a massive snowstorm. Albeit NW of the major cities, can we really in any way say that this is bad news? The only thing that would have been better than this run is if temps were perfect. Otherwise, my confidence level in seeing snow has jumped prodigiously. Not saying it's over 50% or anything like that, but definitely VERY in tune with what's going on. Let's go Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I'm not as smart as u guys but it's hard to fathom long term below avg cold only being interrupted by 3 inches of rain and then right back to below avg cold again....but maybe that's what will happen It is called La Nina and it would be pretty classic for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 DCA at height of storm is close. Temp 32.9 and 850 temps at 0.3...sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 No. http://www.meteo.psu...1993/us0314.php I think you are being too absolute about there being absolutely no similarity whatsoever. I can see distinct similarities in those maps. I guess it's a matter of perspective. And as I pointed out those upper level features all tracked right over DC in 1993 and in this GFS run further east, which is better, IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 It is called La Nina and it would be pretty classic for this area. i agree Phin, lanina winters do some goofy things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 DCA at height of storm is close. Temp 32.9 and 850 temps at 0.3...sleet? Is it really that close? Looked way off on the maps. What about BWI or APG? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 DCA at height of storm is close. Temp 32.9 and 850 temps at 0.3...sleet? need gfs to pull it about 75 miles east then were golden Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neero Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Absurdly huge rainstorm in the middle of winter? Well, honestly, I'd take a massive storm of any kind at this point over being permanently trapped in a precipitation-free bubble such as the one circling the mid-atlantic with every single system! Shame about the temperatures though... QPF is madness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Absurdly huge rainstorm in the middle of winter? Well, honestly, I'd take a massive storm of any kind at this point over being permanently trapped in a precipitation-free bubble such as the one circling the mid-atlantic with every single system! Shame about the temperatures though... QPF is madness id rather have a snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I think you are being too absolute about there being absolutely no similarity whatsoever. I can see distinct similarities in those maps. I guess it's a matter of perspective. And as I pointed out those upper level features all tracked right over DC in 1993 and in this GFS run further east, which is better, IMHO. I bolded the part that does not apply in the previous post. Surface track may be close--but that is no reason to compare it to such a storm. Many lows have tracked over that region in the past that are probably far more comparable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I think you are being too absolute about there being absolutely no similarity whatsoever. I can see distinct similarities in those maps. I guess it's a matter of perspective. And as I pointed out those upper level features all tracked right over DC in 1993 and in this GFS run further east, which is better, IMHO. There are some big differences at H5. Just having an insane closed H5 and other levels west doesn't make it similar. Compare 500mb in that link to the current portrayal by GFS. Not seeing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 JB is always compareing to other great storms, and he over hypes alot( just like margusity) the only thing this storm may have in common is the change over to a mix( if that occurs) I'm talking about the intensity of the coastal low. How many storms do you know of that place a 986mb low just east of DC? I'd welcome a better storm to compare this GFS run to, maybe the january 2000 storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 <br /><br />Is it really that close? Looked way off on the maps. What about BWI or APG?<br /> <br /><br /><br />Apt is 33-34 with 850 temps at 2 with an inch of liquid falling at height. You want to be as far west of the low as possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 id rather have a snowstorm Along with most of us...I think that's a given. Nobody longs for a driving rainstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 need gfs to pull it about 75 miles east then were golden Nah I don't think it needs to go east. I think we need that High to stay put. That and I just don't believe that temps will warm that much. But admittedly that's just an amateur gut feeling based on the cold that's in place. 6 minutes to the canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I actually feel more confident that a storm for our area is on the GFS. Let's be real, its been really good this year compared to its past performance. I would argue much better than any other model in handling big storms in the mid range. Now, knowing our luck this will be a big rain event for Washington and BWI, but I am hopeful. This track would be a dream for Dulles west most likely. I don't even want to imagine the totals in higher elevation areas if this verified. until there is continuity of either several ensuring runs or other globals looking the same this run has minimal support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Thanks for checking in. Sure thing. We don't have football games to worry about this weekend, so it's good to have a storm to track. And for the record, I didn't come in here to taunt - I looked at that map and assumed it was mountains of snow. Didn't realize it was so warm - hard to fathom that a cold snap like this and a juicy southern stream doesn't amount to big snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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