thesnowsknows Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I said from the get go that temps could be a problem with this storm, and they might be. With that said, again I will take my chances with that h5 track, over southern VA. There is time for temps to change some, with that track it would not be hard, the surface low track is fine, just need the thermal profile to adjust a bit. Absolutely. We just need the High to stay put like a good little doggy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 even with this run of the GFS as is, places just NW of DC get their biggest snow of the year with a quick 2-4" as it pulls away. I also dont think some realize how close this run is to a massive snow just west of 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 Winchester the sweet spot...44 inches ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 even with this run of the GFS as is, places just NW of DC get their biggest snow of the year with a quick 2-4" as it pulls away. I also dont think some realize how close this run is to a massive snow just west of 95. We also start as snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I wouldn't be surprised to see HPC indicate there was data ingestion indigestion. I know you're just kidding, but seriously-- we're looking at 5 days out, not 36 hours before the storm. What does it matter what depiction is shown by any model? Knowing this depiction is not going to be what actually happens, the focus is on the 500 heights this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Get your umbrella ready. That actually would require life boats. But let's let let the details work out over, say, the next 120 hours before I start building an ark, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Wow, just wow! That 500 vort is on steroids. Given the dynamics with something like that I would expect to see the 850 0C line closer to the storm center, much like the superstorm of 1993. I feel like this is a good spot to be in at this point, although we are going to have to thread the needle on track and temps, with no room for any kind of western shift. Either way it would be one hell of a storm to watch develop on radar and satellite if it verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 even with this run of the GFS as is, places just NW of DC get their biggest snow of the year with a quick 2-4" as it pulls away. I also dont think some realize how close this run is to a massive snow just west of 95. I think we get it. If the GFS can change the whole storm so radically, it can certainly adjust the temps a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 That actually would require life boats. But let's let let the details work out over, say, the next 120 hours before I start building an ark, Thanks for checking in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 i can't see any differences can we end the dc donuthole crap now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 This sh** just got real. Can anyone give insight as to the movement of that High to the north? I feel like the GFS may be right on point - despite it being this far out - if that High keeps drifting off to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Look whatever happens it will at least start as snow and will be 1000x better than the bulldhit storm were getting tonite There is a storm tonight?1000 times 0 is still 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 Gfs says jyo gets .96 qpf with 850 temps at 0 and surface 32.1 at height of storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Wow, just wow! That 500 vort is on steroids. Given the dynamics with something like that I would expect to see the 850 0C line closer to the storm center, much like the superstorm of 1993. I feel like this is a good spot to be in at this point, although we are going to have to thread the needle on track and temps, with no room for any kind of western shift. Either way it would be one hell of a storm to watch develop on radar and satellite if it verified. No comparison in any way to Superstorm 1993. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 GGEM is up next. It's been weak with qpf too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 i can't see any differences can we end the dc donuthole crap now? 144 hours out on a run that looks nothing like it's predecessors? sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 Gfs 1.32 of snow qpf Leesburg...wet damaging snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 No comparison in any way to Superstorm 1993. Jb has been comparing this pattern to march 1993 all day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Gfs says jyo gets .96 qpf with 850 temps at 0 and surface 32.1 at height of storm your area and mine would do really well with a track like that and marginal cold air. 95 would have a lot of mixing issues. Of course things will change a lot between now and when the storm hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Jb has been comparing this pattern to march 1993 all day he throws that around every year though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 IAd is 90% snow according to Gfs mos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timstobrazil Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 this is gonna be the storm that puts people over the edge. As the storm trends like a curve ball right around the delmarva to give a direct hit to NE or it will be a huge rain storm, which sucks for the snow lovers but will be awesome for the farmers we need some rain. If im wrong then we all win. I just does see something like this verifying given how this winter has gone. don't get your hopes up until you see this on sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 Road trip to my house? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 ens. should be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I understand the hype-calming, this storm is about five days and change out. But if the Canadian come closer to this output tonight and the Euro doesn't scale back too far on QPF's, am I out of line to say that this would be the most agreement amongst the models this far out all year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timstobrazil Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 he throws that around every year though I heard that about the christmas flizzard from JB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anyweather Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 We climo-wise are at the coldest time This is the first one that acually is showing some kind of high in the North east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 this is gonna be the storm that puts people over the edge. As the storm trends like a curve ball right around the delmarva to give a direct hit to NE or it will be a huge rain storm, which sucks for the snow lovers but will be awesome for the farmers we need some rain. If im wrong then we all win. I just does see something like this verifying given how this winter has gone. don't get your hopes up until you see this on sunday. I think we all get it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcwx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I actually feel more confident that a storm for our area is on the GFS. Let's be real, its been really good this year compared to its past performance. I would argue much better than any other model in handling big storms in the mid range. Now, knowing our luck this will be a big rain event for Washington and BWI, but I am hopeful. This track would be a dream for Dulles west most likely. I don't even want to imagine the totals in higher elevation areas if this verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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