derecho Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 This is embarrassing LWX. Really? A few hours ago this was a 6-9 inches snowstorm and now only 2 inches? Wow! http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/lwx/winterstorm/ That's through 6 pm. That's right around the heavy stuff is supposed to come in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I've run out of adjectives for the NAM. Just got to work and saw it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 This is embarrassing LWX. Really? A few hours ago this was a 6-9 inches snowstorm and now only 2 inches? Wow! http://www.erh.noaa....wx/winterstorm/ Edit-Never mind! They just fixed it. Look at the time frame... it is only until 6 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 my forecast is for 1-3" now? lolz lwx I'm really loathe to criticize lwx and I don't want to start now, but man...I can't figure what they are thinking now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I think LWX may have had an error or something with something...there's no way those forecasts were issued correctly from before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Look at the time frame... it is only until 6 PM I'm seeing 12 AM Wed through 6 AM Thur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 I've run out of adjectives for the NAM. Just got to work and saw it. probably the single best one frame run of the NAM i have ever seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 i am not looking at the 18z NAM, it will be snowing by then. This is my last NAM run of this storm. Just like Elway..going out on top Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dobie Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Fairfax, Prince William Co. 10"....I am really hoping these models are correct. I have to comment on the above -- {WWA}?- if this is correct the {WSW} had better be posted soon or your going to have some people who do not follow the weather (who these people are I have to wonder about) totall miffed when they wake up tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 probably the single best one frame run of the NAM i have ever seen I told you this winter would rock eventually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 i am not looking at the 18z NAM, it will be snowing by then. This is my last NAM run of this storm. Just like Elway..going out on top Don't look at the GFS either...let this be it. Oh yeah and don't look outside right now either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Less than one hour after bumping down to "around an inch", NWS bumps it back up for Anne Arundel: Tonight Snow and rain in the evening...then snow likely after midnight. Total snow accumulation of 4 to 6 inches. Lows in the upper 20s. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. They bumped me down to around 4-6 as well... while at the same time the nam dropped 1.25-1.5 right over my house (central/south moco around 10 miles west of i=95 and 25 miles north of dc.._ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 I told you this winter would rock eventually yep. i should of listened to you. You were so positive we would get a blizzard by late january wise old sage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 i am not looking at the 18z NAM, it will be snowing by then. This is my last NAM run of this storm. Just like Elway..going out on top HAHA, great reference. Hell yeah man that small 1.25 strip is RIGHT IMBY. I want to say I'm not looking at any more guidance because that thing is purrrrdy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 not conservative....just plain wrong it'll change in the next hour or two, count on it It's just amazing .. they must not be believing those temps. Otherwise I'm not sure what else .. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Don't look at the GFS either...let this be it. Oh yeah and don't look outside right now either whats happening now? are you home everytime there is a snowstorm? My wife lies about obs just to get me to leave work and come home. She will say its snowing heavily when there is flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravenmaniac Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Looks like mitchnick bought a snow maker and installed it directly over his house. Let's see if the GFS shifts slightly N/NW from the 6z run. If so, it will be damage control time for the local mets. Only question is people are posting QPF totals, but on the individual frames, when does the 850 0 line pass BWI? With temps in the 33-35 range, blowtorching concerns at the surface are pretty much gone so once that line passes us, the dynamics will cool the surface enough. Honestly the upper atmosphere dynamics are likely to be strong enough with this one to give us snow with surface of 33-34 degrees. 12 hr qpf ending 1AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldenuno Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I think LWX may have had an error or something with something...there's no way those forecasts were issued correctly from before. Starting to think the same thing. Tech glitches come up with these sites from time to time. It gets glorified during high visibility events. That said, the NAM is still quite our friend. Potent ULL. Interesting storm that will be referenced for years around here I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 They bumped me down to around 4-6 as well... while at the same time the nam dropped 1.25-1.5 right over my house (central/south moco around 10 miles west of i=95 and 25 miles north of dc.._ This is just another poor performance by LWX. By this afternoon they will be scrambling to raise warnings in areas with silly WWAs now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 With the amount of precip the NAM is showing, we'll have no problem dropping to 0C at the surface around the DC area. I would think most of that QPF will stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I'm really loathe to criticize lwx and I don't want to start now, but man...I can't figure what they are thinking now. i love lwx but their snowcasts this winter have been putrid on the whole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 sorry to hear that It was a shocking miss; nobody yesterday evening was forecasting trecherous roads at 7 am today. Losing traction and hitting a tree? My ownn damn fault, to quote Jimmy Buffett. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 They bumped me down to around 4-6 as well... while at the same time the nam dropped 1.25-1.5 right over my house (central/south moco around 10 miles west of i=95 and 25 miles north of dc.._ What are you talking about? The MoCo zone forecast says 4-8 just like it always did.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 i love lwx but their snowcasts this winter have been putrid on the whole they seemed more ominous with the miller b from last week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 My wife lies about obs just to get me to leave work and come home. Which chapter is this in the JI autobiography, "Nothing but the truth about snow and marriage"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAOS Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 they seemed more ominous with the miller b from last week They had a watch well in advance of that storm. At the time I was thinking WTF? and I am thinking WTF? once again. I don't like to bash them but they can't seem to get much right this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Eastern Howard county. WV?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCWeatherGuy Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 They had a watch well in advance of that storm. At the time I was thinking WTF? and I am think WTF? once again. I don't like to bash them but they can't seem to get much right this year. What's amazing to me is that nobody seems to be able to even offer a credible theory for what LWX is thinking. It's one thing to take a reasonable minority viewpoint and run with it. It's another to just take a position that seems to have no basis in fact or logic. As weird as it sounds, it looks like the LWX is doing the latter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 WV?? No. Between Balt and DC. Interstate 95 cuts through the eastern part of Howard. He lives just west of 95, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Sterling....They might want to wrap up that NAM review. HV NOT MADE APPRCIABLE CHGS TO THE FCST YET. 12Z NAM HAS JUST COME IN...AND WL REVIEW IT NXT. HEADLINE CHGS MAY BE REQD LATER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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