North Balti Zen Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 To sum up the overnites...6Z nam bullish, 6Z gfs a bit south and east with the heavy stuff, RUC somewhere in between those two, and the recent SREF wet and cold. Is that about right? This is going to be a long day of waiting to see if the second part develops in a way that makes us all happy. Bumping to avoid the latest Watch-gate talk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 made this the other day for some people and posted it in the obs thread, might as well put it in here also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 If anyhing, I think the CWG forecast for dc may be on the conservative side based on the what the 06Z nama nd gfs is showing. Almost all the heavy precipitation looks to be snow as the hieghts crash and both models show about 1" of liquid equivalent as snow. The nam sounding by 21z is snow with an unstable layer. If the 12Z run continues to show a similar looks, I'll lobby for pushing the range for dc up and inch or snow as 3 inches looks too low for the low end but think it wise to wait for the new guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I like the 6z NAM right now...GFS had a weird evolution and it was not supported by the ensembles. Every ensemble member looks like the NAM, none were similar to the op run. I know using ensembles can be dangerous but here I think that is a clue that it was a hiccup run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 made this the other day for some people and posted it in the obs thread, might as well put it in here also Could be. At least virtually everyone missed the crippling rush hour snow this AM so that one small pooched detail is a collectively shared pooching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravenmaniac Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Anne Arundel is south of Baltimore and closer to the bay, both factors that could keep us warmer than Baltimore for an hour or two. If the precip from 3-5 pm today is moderate to heavy while it's still in the 33-34 degree range here, but 31-32 in Baltimore their decision will probably be validated. If the temp drops before the heavy precip arrives, they might replace the advisory with a warning. In the end though, us being under and advisory or warning won't influence the weather, so it will have no affect on what actually accumulates here. Anne Arundel County under a WWA, too, yet Baltimore is WSW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 First time poster here, love what you guys do. Why do you think the NWS has been cutting back on accumulations all morning? From what i gathered from the 6Z nam, still gives us a pretty good thump here in Arlington, Va. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 First time poster here, love what you guys do. Why do you think the NWS has been cutting back on accumulations all morning? From what i gathered from the 6Z nam, still gives us a pretty good thump here in Arlington, Va. Thanks When did they cut back on accumulations? The warning out west says 5-10 inches now - the warning close to the north west says 4-8 and the advisory says 3-5 for most. Not sure what you're referring to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Still under a WWA here. But have seen the numbers drop from 3-5...2-4...and now 1-3. When did they cut back on accumulations? The warning out west says 5-10 inches now - the warning close to the north west says 4-8 and the advisory says 3-5 for most. Not sure what you're referring to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Symblized Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 BOOOOOOOOOOOM! THUUUMP! Yes. that's four inches in one hour folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 For Anne Arundel County: Tonight Snow and rain in the evening...then snow likely after midnight. Total snow accumulation around an inch. Lows in the upper 20s. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 BOOOOOOOOOOOM! THUUUMP! Yes. that's four inches in one hour folks. Amazing, just stunning. That is 5"/hr for WxUSAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Still under a WWA here. But have seen the numbers drop from 3-5...2-4...and now 1-3. Would help if you shared your location in your profile so people know where "here" is. Even St. Mary's Co. in Maryland still has a WWA for 2-4 inches which seems pretty reasonable to me. Maybe a smidge higher. If anything the numbers have risen in the warning/adv text mainly to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 For Anne Arundel County: Tonight Snow and rain in the evening...then snow likely after midnight. Total snow accumulation around an inch. Lows in the upper 20s. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 lolz And that was just updated half an hour ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 new SREFs are fine it does bring the highest axis south a bit, but won't effect BWI/DCA metro areas temps crash after 1PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Amazing, just stunning. That is 5"/hr for WxUSAF. Where is that guy located. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Snow...mainly in the evening. Snow may be heavy at times in the evening. Total snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches. Lows in the upper 20s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow near 100 percent. 22203 Arlington Would help if you shared your location in your profile so people know where "here" is. Even St. Mary's Co. in Maryland still has a WWA for 2-4 inches which seems pretty reasonable to me. Maybe a smidge higher. If anything the numbers have risen in the warning/adv text mainly to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 yowzers at NAM at 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Where is that guy located. Eastern Howard county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCWeatherGuy Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Can someone explain/theorize what it is that LWX is seeing that we're not which is leading them to get significantly more pessimistic about this storm in the face of fairly consistent model runs? Obviously, these guys are pros. But if their thought is that the rain/snow changeover will occur late in the evening, where do they get the support for their opinion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 12z NAM has an insane band over Ji's house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 12 hr qpf ending 10PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 yowzers at NAM at 15 what you see? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 NCEP version of map Midlo posted http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_pcp_012l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 If the rain/snow issue is what's keeping our totals down here in the DC area, I have to say... I can't see how, with the rates we're talking about later (and with snow already covering the grass) we have trouble with snow sticking. Our high today is 34. With what's on the ground I'm sure if we get some decent rates, which looks very likely, we will have no trouble surpassing the 2-4 inch accumulations LWX is calling for, as well as dropping two degrees to get to the freezing mark. I can see if all we had this morning was wet ground and grassy areas, but that's not the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravenmaniac Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 When the bufkit information comes out for the 12z NAM and 12z GFS runs could someone post it in this thread since it's for model discussion? I think the predicted temps at all levels at that point will help in determining when we think a changeover from rain/sleet/snow to all snow would happen, and maybe reduce the concerns about watch vs warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 12z NAM looks to hit hardest slightly south of DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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