Ian Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 i secretly hope phineas dry slots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Did LWX ever explained why they chopped an inch or 2 off our forecast? Nothing in the discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Warnings will be going up after the 00Z GFS. I like storms where LWX plays catch-up. Those are always good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Sure seems like a warning is needed based on the 00Z nam and rgem. I think the latter's qpf may be better. It'll be hoisted after the kids are halfway to school tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 i secretly hope phineas dry slots That's a little close to home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 i secretly hope phineas dry slots I will when Leesburg steals my snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 That map looks real nice for us out here. Boy, it's gonna be hard to sleep tonight! Gonna depend on that snow later tomorrow afternoon and where the heaviest precip sets up. Might as well be us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdevil02 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 i secretly hope phineas dry slots Your secret's out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Did LWX ever explained why they chopped an inch or 2 off our forecast? Nothing in the discussion. Ender is fookin' with poor JI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Did LWX ever explained why they chopped an inch or 2 off our forecast? Nothing in the discussion. In my forecast they went from 5-10" to 3-7" so i have no clue nor was there anything in the discussion about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 After the 6z and the 0z Nam...I'm done with it till the next storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwonder Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Did LWX ever explained why they chopped an inch or 2 off our forecast? Nothing in the discussion. Could this be why..... .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion --ANY RAIN/SNOW MIX WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO START WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW DURING THE MORNING AS THE WINTER STORM WARNING GOES INTO EFFECT. ALL SNOW WILL BE DELAYED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...ESPECIALLY ALONG INTERSTATE 95 AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THERE. BUT WHEN IT DOES SNOW...IT MAY COME DOWN FAIRLY HARD FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. WE WILL NEED TO FINE TUNE WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE SETS UP. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...AM BECOMING INCREASINGLY CONVINCED OF A COLDER SOLUTION WHICH WOULD FAVOR HEAVY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FURTHER EAST. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF 00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THIS IDEA. OBVIOUSLY A SMALL CHANGE IN THE RAIN/SNOW LINE CAN HAVE A LARGE IMPACT REGARDING SNOWFALL TOTALS OVER THE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON AREA. IN ADDITION...THIS STORM WILL LIKELY EXHIBIT BANDING CHARACTERISTICS AND WE/LL HAVE TO TRY TO PINPOINT WHERE BANDING OCCURS WHICH WILL ENHANCE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. EITHER WAY...FOLKS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING RUSH HOUR DUE TO SNOW. SNOW WILL END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A DRY SLOT ADVANCES THROUGH THE CWA LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I like storms where LWX plays catch-up. Those are always good. this was yesterday.. heh, i thought it was like 2 days ago. it takes a while sometimes. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 318 PM EST MON JAN 24 2011 <snip> SINCE THERE/S NOT MUCH DYNAMIC FORCING...LIFT DOESNT SEEM STELLAR AND WUD BE MORE TEMPTED TO GO LWR. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LWX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=8&glossary=0&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Hello and welcome to the forum! I guess you've seen enough of the various...errrr..."personalities" here by now! But seriously, a good place for weather discussion and information despite some of the other crap that flies. Heck, I have to admit the snow weenie in me was almost taken in my Mitchnick's et al's joking about the RGEM! Sort of like the end of that movie "The Sting", where everyone is taken for a ride. To paraphrase the Paul Newman character, "I thought you were reciting the real GGEM, myself!" Thanks for the welcome. Much appreciated. Yeah...this forum is better than most TV shows for crying out loud. Only Caps hockey or WVU sports can trump it.....well...I think anyway. As a side note, I was in here from time to time last year on the old Eastern site. I tell ya...while the two greatest storms raged last February, I spent a week in Disney with the family on the Crackberry following every last comment in here on thudersnow to jebwalks to new deform bands, etc I was sooooo jealous! Anyway, let's get that snow in here soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The amounts updated in the point-and-click which aren't (in my opinion) as good as the zones. Just wait until the 3am update of the zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
33andrain Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 They probably see no harm in waiting another hour or two to upgrade any watches to warnings in our area I can't wait to hear Marty Ass's explanation in the morning concerning his 1" forecast from today. Good Ole WJZ Baltimore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Could this be why..... .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion --ANY RAIN/SNOW MIX WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO START WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW DURING THE MORNING AS THE WINTER STORM WARNING GOES INTO EFFECT. ALL SNOW WILL BE DELAYED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...ESPECIALLY ALONG INTERSTATE 95 AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THERE. BUT WHEN IT DOES SNOW...IT MAY COME DOWN FAIRLY HARD FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. WE WILL NEED TO FINE TUNE WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE SETS UP. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...AM BECOMING INCREASINGLY CONVINCED OF A COLDER SOLUTION WHICH WOULD FAVOR HEAVY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FURTHER EAST. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF 00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THIS IDEA. OBVIOUSLY A SMALL CHANGE IN THE RAIN/SNOW LINE CAN HAVE A LARGE IMPACT REGARDING SNOWFALL TOTALS OVER THE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON AREA. IN ADDITION...THIS STORM WILL LIKELY EXHIBIT BANDING CHARACTERISTICS AND WE/LL HAVE TO TRY TO PINPOINT WHERE BANDING OCCURS WHICH WILL ENHANCE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. EITHER WAY...FOLKS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING RUSH HOUR DUE TO SNOW. SNOW WILL END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A DRY SLOT ADVANCES THROUGH THE CWA LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.-- End Changed Discussion -- That's how precip usually ends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Could this be why..... .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion --ANY RAIN/SNOW MIX WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO START WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW DURING THE MORNING AS THE WINTER STORM WARNING GOES INTO EFFECT. ALL SNOW WILL BE DELAYED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...ESPECIALLY ALONG INTERSTATE 95 AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THERE. BUT WHEN IT DOES SNOW...IT MAY COME DOWN FAIRLY HARD FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. WE WILL NEED TO FINE TUNE WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE SETS UP. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...AM BECOMING INCREASINGLY CONVINCED OF A COLDER SOLUTION WHICH WOULD FAVOR HEAVY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FURTHER EAST. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF 00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THIS IDEA. OBVIOUSLY A SMALL CHANGE IN THE RAIN/SNOW LINE CAN HAVE A LARGE IMPACT REGARDING SNOWFALL TOTALS OVER THE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON AREA. IN ADDITION...THIS STORM WILL LIKELY EXHIBIT BANDING CHARACTERISTICS AND WE/LL HAVE TO TRY TO PINPOINT WHERE BANDING OCCURS WHICH WILL ENHANCE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. EITHER WAY...FOLKS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING RUSH HOUR DUE TO SNOW. SNOW WILL END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A DRY SLOT ADVANCES THROUGH THE CWA LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.-- End Changed Discussion -- the precip distribution hasn't changed on any of the models up to now, and nothing this evening suggest a dry slot they better send their dry sluts home tonight over at LWX and start looking at the computer models and the models in their office Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I will when Leesburg steals my snow. It's only stealing if you get caught.....besides I deserve it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 the precip distribution hasn't changed any any of the models to now, this evening, suggest a dry slot they better send their dry sluts home tonight over at LWX and start looking at the computer models and the models in their office Maybe the dry sluts could help out Ji and his basement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 RGEM has a precip max from mitchnick to my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanVA Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benchmark Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 So am I reading this correct that this is strictly total snow QPF and not Total QPF of any precip type? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Is that a 30+ stripe on the RGEM through FDK? I think it's a shame that LWX isn't putting out warnings prior to the 11pm news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 GFS!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 If this thing unfolds as depicted, I hope schools and government let people go home early otherwise afternoon rush hour will be bad times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Ender is fookin' with poor JI Our forecast was raised we are now in the tight little range of 5-11" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 GFS through 18 seems to keep the 0c 850 near BR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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