Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 ric~ 0.75" some mix lyh ~0.40" cho ~0.50" orf ~1.0" half rain half snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=ngp_namer&dtg=2011012012&prod=prp&tau=120&set=Core http://www.americanw...post__p__322212 Thanks fellas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 DT just crapped on the storm on facebook after the 12z GFS run..did he change his tune when the euro came out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 no offense but i personally care very little what anyone in their forum says. the setup on the euro is good obviously but to compare it to a top 10 storm in this area right now is silly. Seriously, that thread is a fooking train wreck....anyone mentioning a comparison to PDII based on a 6 to 7 day forecast should be permanently 5 posted (met or not). And yes, this single run of the Euro disproves the [ficticious] SW bias thing, right? /sarcasm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 ric~ 0.75" some mix lyh ~0.40" cho ~0.50" orf ~1.0" half rain half snow Thanks for the va QPF midlo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 This is a really tough pattern for the globals or any model to key in on as each wave disturbance breaks off the Pacific Jet then passes through the coastal ranges than the northern rockies. Beyond 100 hours the operational runs are going to have a lot of issues. Threats are good to track--but this is definitely a much higher variability threat than others. Here is a good look at the action in the Pacific and the development of the first wave disturbance. http://www.atmos.was....cgi?sat_500+12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 0z BOM 30+MM and still has a second storm, waiting on the 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Here is a good look at the GFS operational in the Pacific. Watch each wave disturbance break off the Pacific Jet then pass over the Eastern Pacific Ridge. The exact timing of these low amplitude features and how strong they eventually are is almost impossible for the models to accurately simulate--then more variability is thrown into the mix as they pass through the coastal ranges and dense mountain networks of BC. This is likely going to be some of the lowest verification scores of the models all winter with this pattern we are getting into. http://weather.utah....fs004&r=PA&d=TS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 0z BOM 30+MM and still has a second storm, waiting on the 12z did you ban all the baltimore weenies? This thread has been pretty nice the past 2 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 did you ban all the baltimore weenies? This thread has been pretty nice the past 2 hours Nope i am still here . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 This is a really tough pattern for the globals or any model to key in on as each wave disturbance breaks off the Pacific Jet then passes through the coastal ranges than the northern rockies. Beyond 100 hours the operational runs are going to have a lot of issues. Threats are good to track--but this is definitely a much higher variability threat than others. Here is a good look at the action in the Pacific and the development of the first wave disturbance. http://www.atmos.was....cgi?sat_500+12 Baro i wish you would post here more, your knowledge of weather is unreal and your simplistic explanations make it very easy to understand and help me learn more . Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 did you ban all the baltimore weenies? This thread has been pretty nice the past 2 hours yea phineasC has 3 posts left mitchnick 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Baro i wish you would post here more, your knowledge of weather is unreal and your simplistic explanations make it very easy to understand and help me learn more . Thank you. I have been keeping an eye on the PSUHoffman storm--I am wishing it luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I have been keeping an eye on the PSUHoffman storm--I am wishing it luck. Thanks again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 midlo, what ya got for SBY's QPF? I have a feeling we'll be soggy this time around... We got lucky on 12/26-12/27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 euro ens are less impressive at 500 especially with the northern stream but still show snow in the area from 120 thru 156 so it's generally supportive of the op it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 euro ens are less impressive at 500 especially with the northern stream but still show snow in the area from 120 thru 156 so it's generally supportive of the op it seems. The ensembles haven't helped much this season. Plenty of times they were more favorable to us than the operational run after run and it never mattered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The ensembles haven't helped much this season. Plenty of times they were more favorable to us than the operational run after run and it never mattered. yeah as i've stated im not the hugest fan of hanging on them especially at this range but i figured someone would want to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 euro ens are less impressive at 500 especially with the northern stream but still show snow in the area from 120 thru 156 so it's generally supportive of the op it seems. GFS mean is also in fair agreement with the Op for the Tuesday event, but even weaker than the puny thing the Op shows. But there's a lot of spread among the members. For the GFS, only 3 members even get precip to DC through 132hrs. I would say it sounds like the Euro's ensembles are in more agreement with their Op than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 LWX went straight 40 POP SNOW Mon night-Tues night in the zones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 LWX went straight 40 POP SNOW Mon night-Tues night in the zones not here.. rain mention on tues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 yeah as i've stated im not the hugest fan of hanging on them especially at this range but i figured someone would want to know. I guess they are still useful if they mostly all agree with the operational. I think Wes uses the spread more than the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 not here.. rain mention on tues http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/products/eol.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 http://www.erh.noaa....roducts/eol.php http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/forecasts/zone/dc/dcz001.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 LWX went straight 40 POP SNOW Mon night-Tues night in the zones I got 30/40/30% in mine, not that it makes one damn bit of difference this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 http://www.erh.noaa....roducts/eol.php i guess i have a wwa tonight too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 i guess i have a wwa tonight too! I thought it had to be 1-2" for it to be a WWA but i guess about 1 inch qualifies . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timstobrazil Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Arlington&state=VA&site=LWX&lat=38.8787&lon=-77.1019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I thought it had to be 1-2" for it to be a WWA but i guess about 1 inch qualifies . i dont have a wwa, those are not my zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 i dont have a wwa, those are not my zones. My bad i know your excitement level was through the roof . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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