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The Psuhoffman Storm


Ji

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.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

-- Changed Discussion --NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINE CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING. WE

UPGRADED WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO A WINTER STORM WARNING EARLIER

THIS EVENING DUE TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN 5 OR MORE INCHES OF

SNOW IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD. GENERALLY WENT WITH 4 TO 8 INCH SNOWFALL

ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS AREA. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE SLEET OR

FREEZING RAIN THAT MIXES IN AT THE ONSET. AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE

RIDGE REMAIN IN A WINTER STORM WATCH AS CONFIDENCE IN WARNING

CRITERIA IS A LITTLE LOWER. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO THE LOCATION OF

THE RAIN/SNOW LINE...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE SNOWFALL

ACCUMULATIONS. THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR 5 OR MORE INCHES

WITHIN THE WATCH AREA AS WELL...BUT WE JUST DONT HAVE THE

CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING RIGHT NOW. HOPEFULLY 00Z

GUIDANCE WILL OFFER INCREASED CONFIDENCE WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE

WILL SET UP AND THEN HEADLINE ADJUSTMENTS CAN BE MADE OVERNIGHT.

WE ARE ALREADY WATCHING AN INITIAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION APPROACH

FROM SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL MOVE INTO THE

CENTRAL VIRGINIA FOOTHILLS/CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY LATE THIS

EVENING...MOST LIKELY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. FURTHER NORTH OVERNIGHT

IT MAY BE IN THE FORM OF A LIGHT WINTRY MIX...BUT OBVIOUSLY THE

BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THAT IS

WHEN WE EXPECT THE MOST IMPACT FROM THE WEATHER.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

-- Changed Discussion --ANY RAIN/SNOW MIX WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO START WILL TRANSITION

TO SNOW DURING THE MORNING AS THE WINTER STORM WARNING GOES INTO

EFFECT. ALL SNOW WILL BE DELAYED EAST OF THE BLUE

RIDGE...ESPECIALLY ALONG INTERSTATE 95 AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF

THERE. BUT WHEN IT DOES SNOW...IT MAY COME DOWN FAIRLY HARD FOR A

PERIOD OF TIME. WE WILL NEED TO FINE TUNE WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW

LINE SETS UP. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...AM BECOMING

INCREASINGLY CONVINCED OF A COLDER SOLUTION WHICH WOULD FAVOR

HEAVY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FURTHER EAST. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF 00Z

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THIS IDEA. OBVIOUSLY A SMALL CHANGE

IN THE RAIN/SNOW LINE CAN HAVE A LARGE IMPACT REGARDING SNOWFALL

TOTALS OVER THE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON AREA. IN ADDITION...THIS

STORM WILL LIKELY EXHIBIT BANDING CHARACTERISTICS AND WE/LL HAVE

TO TRY TO PINPOINT WHERE BANDING OCCURS WHICH WILL ENHANCE

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. EITHER WAY...FOLKS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR

SIGNIFICANT IMPACT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING RUSH HOUR DUE

TO SNOW. SNOW WILL END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A DRY SLOT

ADVANCES THROUGH THE CWA LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.-- End Changed Discussion --

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listen,

ive been up for 22 of the past 24 hours. We had a major flood yesterday because of a frozen pipe. Plumber and Excavation team where here till 3:00am last night...basement carpet ruined. There are 10 fans running in my basment loud as hell drying up the moisture in the wall..

Im pissed off,sleepy and cranky.

Dont take my QPF away

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listen,

ive been up for 22 of the past 24 hours. We had a major flood yesterday because of a frozen pipe. Plumber and Excavation team where here till 3:00am last night...basement carpet ruined. There are 10 fans running in my basment loud as hell drying up the moisture in the wall..

Im pissed off,sleepy and cranky.

Dont take my QPF away

geez, since that's the case, I take back half of what I said about you

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Good point. I'll give up the bullseye to be assured i'm at least on the board. Been dealing with the precipitation dome out here long enough. Besides, so long as we're in the center of the action, we've got as good as shot as anyone to get under some heavier bands of snow.

if JI and anyone else in the DCA/BWI has any sense, you'd realize the 0Z was much better than 18Z because it dropped further south in VA higher snow amounts giving us more breathing room from the dreaded snow hole

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The NAM is just making noise. I mean look at the precip mass between hour 18 and 24. The ull seems to be losing strength between that time. It doesn't really make sense. I guarantee the GFS will look the same as it has. And besides, I'll reiterate what's already been said; even if this is what verifies, boo friggin hoo. I'll take my 7-8 inches to the bank.

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What's up fellow weather weenies. Been reading in here for days. The drama and comedy is freakin priceless!

So I'm most definitely ready for our first real deal of season. Who's fired up!! :) Anyone see the radar in South Central VA? Looks like it means biz, and it seems to be heading for DCA and beyond? Thoughts?

Wow - my first post? I feel like I know you all so well already....:lol:

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What's up fellow weather weenies. Been reading in here for days. The drama and comedy is freakin priceless!

So I'm most definitely ready for our first real deal of season. Who's fired up!! :) Anyone see the radar in South Central VA? Looks like it means biz, and it seems to be heading for DCA and beyond? Thoughts?

yeah, its gonna' snow

welcome to the Board and don't forget to duck!

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