Grothar of Herndon Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 NAM shows IAD with only .78 for the entire storm. Thats way below any of the models Euro was 1.1. Man it is all good. GFS will be 1+ for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 DOH! A snow hole! Generally Looks good area wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Ji, please take a few minutes, a deep breath, compose yourself, and then come back for the rest of the 0z suite. We have a lot of other guidance to come in and we will know soon if the NAM was onto something or not. Either way its really not that big of a difference, its within normal error for precip. no, no I can't make it to the Washington Zoo tomorrow due to the wx but JI is close enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jviper Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Gaithersburg is now lower Last Update: 9:02 pm EST Jan 25, 2011 Wednesday: A chance of snow before 9am, then rain and snow between 9am and 3pm, then snow after 3pm. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 35. North wind between 7 and 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Wednesday Night: Snow, mainly before midnight. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 26. North wind between 11 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Ji, please take a few minutes, a deep breath, compose yourself, and then come back for the rest of the 0z suite. We have a lot of other guidance to come in and we will know soon if the NAM was onto something or not. Either way its really not that big of a difference, its within normal error for precip. Even if it's "on to something" and we "only" get between .75 to 1.00 QPF, we'd should be jumping for joy. How much snow were we expecting 36 hours ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Ji, wander over the NE thread (but don't post) and just read over there if you want to see what they are saying about what may have been off on it (and they're saying a lot). They've got a lot more skin in that run than we do... As for us, that was a "bad run" that still insists on leaving enough qpf around here for a general 6-10 inch snowfall with a few lollis of 12. I like our spot, unless there is something going on with the guidance that we just don't see yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 "only" .78. Don't become annoying, seriously. Not tonight. randy. I know what you mean bro but the almost every model run the past 3-4 days has given us 1.00 to 1.25. So to go from that to .78 is annoying although i think the NAM is wrong. Thats a big shift in one run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 ehh he'll probably get deformation'ed one way or another and get there even after all his whining There is more whining per capita along the Manchester - Frederick - Leesburg arc than in any other region. Yet every single time some huge band parks over them for hours and hours and they end up with the highest totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I don't know, it looks about the same for the SV to me. It's solidly around .75 qpf. Agreed and we are all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I don't know, it looks about the same for the SV to me. It's solidly around .75 qpf. This is 18Z clown. Much more snow in the northern shenandoah valley than 0z. Here is 0Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 NAM is suppose to be this wet model on steroids. Please wait until all of the models show less qpf before you go goofballs...12z had .59 18z 1.07 00z .78....it's somewhere in there Ji Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I can't do this. I'm not going to see here and pacify weenies who are have seizures based on one run of the 0z suite that's STILL great. GTFO of this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 It is having feedback issues with the thunderstorms over Florida. yes.. that must be it. i think many would be unhappy to contemplate how easy it would be to bust this wide open. fingers crossed.. the models are good right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 randy. I know what you mean bro but the almost every model run the past 3-4 days has given us 1.00 to 1.25. So to go from that to .78 is annoying although i think the NAM is wrong. Thats a big shift in one run. I have to think if the NAM had totally lost the storm you might have hurt yourself or worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timstobrazil Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 obviously the NAM is having trouble, as it alway does when the sun isn't out, it will come back by mid day tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 RSM would be around an inch at DCA/IAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 It is having feedback issues with the thunderstorms over Florida. possibly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 randy. I know what you mean bro but the almost every model run the past 3-4 days has given us 1.00 to 1.25. So to go from that to .78 is annoying although i think the NAM is wrong. Thats a big shift in one run. No. it isn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Gaithersburg is now lower Last Update: 9:02 pm EST Jan 25, 2011 Wednesday: A chance of snow before 9am, then rain and snow between 9am and 3pm, then snow after 3pm. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 35. North wind between 7 and 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Wednesday Night: Snow, mainly before midnight. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 26. North wind between 11 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Yup, NWS saw this run and now they are bailing! OMG :( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 randy. I know what you mean bro but the almost every model run the past 3-4 days has given us 1.00 to 1.25. So to go from that to .78 is annoying although i think the NAM is wrong. Thats a big shift in one run. the problem with you JI is that everything has got to be some little, competitive exercise who the he!! do you think you're competing with? you'll never be happy with that mentality just sit back and be glad my prediction for the winter looks to bust and appreciate whatever fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vern Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Gaithersburg is now lower Last Update: 9:02 pm EST Jan 25, 2011 Wednesday: A chance of snow before 9am, then rain and snow between 9am and 3pm, then snow after 3pm. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 35. North wind between 7 and 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Wednesday Night: Snow, mainly before midnight. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 26. North wind between 11 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. They did the same thing for Reston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 okay weenies, JB says the NAM is on crack like i thought on twitter BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi Nam feedback destroys model as it has wave escaping and ruining energy bundling. Still it did trend north. UKMET and GFS should be better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 There is no reason to change the forecast, the model stillhas a great track of the 500h low. The storm still is liable to produce somewhere in the .80 to 1.1 QPF range and pinpointing who gets what is probably beyond what the models can do perfectly. I like the CWG forecast pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 randy. I know what you mean bro but the almost every model run the past 3-4 days has given us 1.00 to 1.25. So to go from that to .78 is annoying although i think the NAM is wrong. Thats a big shift in one run. Ji....it's .89 for JYO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 There is no reason to change the forecast, the model stillhas a great track of the 500h low. The storm still is liable to produce somewhere in the .80 to 1.1 QPF range and pinpointing who gets what is probably beyond what the models can do perfectly. I like the CWG forecast pretty well. yeah but did you see the 6z nam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 okay weenies, JB says the NAM is on crack like i thought on twitter BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi Nam feedback destroys model as it has wave escaping and ruining energy bundling. Still it did trend north. UKMET and GFS should be better thank God he's be on fire this year with forecasts around here for snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Ji....it's .89 for JYO ya but the first .20 is bs snow...it dosent really count lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Maybe I don't know exactly where Leesburg is, but this is how I see NAM total precip from today's runs for Leesburg: 6z: 0.25-0.5 12z: very close to a sharp precip gradient...in the 0.5-0.75" range I think 18z: 1-1.25" Tonight's 0z: 0.75-1" So, sounds pretty good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Yup, NWS saw this run and now they are bailing! OMG :( There is no way they could get a new forecast out that quick based on the nam unless it was automated or they were clairvoyant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 yeah but did you see the 6z nam? help, POLICE, THIEF, THIEF!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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