stormtracker Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 when the euro and the RGEM are constantly giving us 1 to 1.25 qpf.... .75 is not cool. The NAM is having issues again. Even the SREFS are wetter. Do you really think NYC is going to get screwed like the NAM shows? How much have you had so far this winter? Yeah, that's what I thought. If all we got was .75...i'm cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 if you really think NYC and CT are getting a dusting,, than we should buy the NAM. If not, the NAM should be giving us more precip because the low will be stronger than Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 the diff between the Euro and the NAM is like night and day for NE I'm trying to figure out how the he!! this went from a NE bliz to a MA special more proof that its real hard to get a storm that hits the entire eastern seaboard from VA to ME I wouldn't worry yet if I was NYC too Boston, the NAM has its uses because with its high resolution it is the best at picking up the thermal profiles of the storm and meso scale features like banding but it also is prone to crazy jumps even 12 hours before gametime. IT has done this so many times, unless other guidance supports it, and so far the SREF says its wrong, I would not buy its idea of everything sliding due east and OTS. Without any blocking that seems unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I feel comfortable with 7-10" call in Frederick/Carrol Counties. When even an "off" run brings .8-.9" of all snow......you are in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Ji is really heart-broken over this NAM run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 So does it look like light snow or rain as early as 6AM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 It looks like a mini version of the Feb 5/6 blizz. What is not to like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 i doubt it's right up there maybe not here either but their a little further out in range. the nam has very little run to run consistency at the surface lately... or at least it is prone to bouncing around. if its not right up there...then its not right up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Shenandoah valley does get screwed this run, but areas east of the Blue Ridge look the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Ji is really heart-broken over this NAM run. i dont like losing 3 inches off a run 12 hours before the storm starts especially when my yearly total is barely 3 inches. If i had the other 2 storms that NYC got, i wouldnt care Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 if its not right up there...then its not right up here. possible, but probably less wrong here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Amazing map for the Shenandoah Valley. Crushing heavy snow. oh my next panel should be hard to take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 So does it look like light snow or rain as early as 6AM? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 NAM shows IAD with only .78 for the entire storm. Thats way below any of the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I wouldn't worry yet if I was NYC too Boston, the NAM has its uses because with its high resolution it is the best at picking up the thermal profiles of the storm and meso scale features like banding but it also is prone to crazy jumps even 12 hours before gametime. IT has done this so many times, unless other guidance supports it, and so far the SREF says its wrong, I would not buy its idea of everything sliding due east and OTS. Without any blocking that seems unlikely. essentially little or nothing has changed. the 500 track is about exactly what it was and is on the other models. the surface is fun to look at but it's not going to tell you the answer even when it's really close most of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 NAM shows IAD with only .78 for the entire storm. Thats way below any of the models And it is more realistic. Ji, don't count on getting a foot, you weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Pretty marginal. It is the NAM it could very well be run by run shifts that mean little. Verbatim areas to the E would see a tad more mixing before a full changeover. I am just saying exactly what the NAM has--not what I believe may or may not happen. This run doesn't really seem any warmer beyond some microscopic shifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Dudes - most of you would have done very bad things to get this run 18 hours before a storm 2 days ago. Roll with it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 NAM is suppose to be this wet model on steroids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I don't know, it looks about the same for the SV to me. It's solidly around .75 qpf. Shenandoah valley does get screwed this run, but areas east of the Blue Ridge look the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 And it is more realistic. Ji, don't count on getting a foot, you weenie. ehh he'll probably get deformation'ed one way or another and get there even after all his whining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 This run doesn't really seem any warmer beyond some microscopic shifts. its probably warmer because there is less qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 NAM shows IAD with only .78 for the entire storm. Thats way below any of the models You should punt and move on to the next 200 hour JB hype storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 You should punt and move on to the next 200 hour JB hype storm. I am not punting but there is no model support for us to get less than an inch liquid but everyone seems to be cool with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Curlyq Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 We need an updated clown map to please the weenies on this board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 NAM is suppose to be this wet model on steroids. Ji, please take a few minutes, a deep breath, compose yourself, and then come back for the rest of the 0z suite. We have a lot of other guidance to come in and we will know soon if the NAM was onto something or not. Either way its really not that big of a difference, its within normal error for precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I am not punting but there is no model support for us to get less than an inch liquid but everyone seems to be cool with it Who cares? It is almost all snow for you, and you'll get better ratios than I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 NAM shows IAD with only .78 for the entire storm. Thats way below any of the models "only" .78. Don't become annoying, seriously. Not tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 It is having feedback issues with the thunderstorms over Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Shenandoah valley does get screwed this run, but areas east of the Blue Ridge look the same. really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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