stormtracker Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Despite the weenie suicides that will inevitably take place, this run is a bit more realistic with .75 to 1" QPF. I'm cool with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I love our elevation. We seem to get obscene totals that are always several inches higher than the surrounding areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Despite the weenie suicides that will inevitably take place We can only hope.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Still beautiful, solidly over 0.75. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 This run is fine. Some of you need to take your meds. It is totally in line with the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 It is a tick slower and has more easterly winds in the low levels as well--so it is a tick warmer and a little dryer too. You sure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 This run is fine. Some of you need to take your meds. It is totally in line with the other models. almost a hecs, but not quite hehe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Much different for the NE the diff between the Euro and the NAM is like night and day for NE I'm trying to figure out how the he!! this went from a NE bliz to a MA special more proof that its real hard to get a storm that hits the entire eastern seaboard from VA to ME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 lol @ "disaster run" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Despite the weenie suicides that will inevitably take place, this run is a bit more realistic with .75 to 1" QPF. I'm cool with that. Nobody should be upset...I mean really how much snow have we received this year so far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Clown map looks just like the others....just fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 OK some people need to shill out, the NAM with its higher res tends to be "jumpy" It has had a hiccup every 3 runs or so and done it before every storm. Besides that its not a big change, a difference this minor is just noise really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The 0Z NAM runs are always the driest out of the 4, whether wrong or right. RGEM will be a BECS (Old Testament style) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 actually, for BWI, its the coldest run so far looks like everything that falls is snow WED 1A 26-JAN -0.5 -0.1 1019 82 68 0.00 559 544 WED 7A 26-JAN -0.3 -2.4 1015 97 100 0.07 556 543 WED 1P 26-JAN 1.9 -0.6 1009 93 98 0.09 551 543 WED 7P 26-JAN 0.2 -3.9 1006 97 100 0.34 542 537 THU 1A 27-JAN -0.1 -5.1 1008 96 94 0.36 540 534 You sure? I am just looking at soundings. It is a tad warmer aloft and has more of a sleet/rain mix hanging on a little longer farther E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgorlinsky Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Snowhole over Blacksburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Despite the weenie suicides that will inevitably take place, this run is a bit more realistic with .75 to 1" QPF. I'm cool with that. when the euro and the RGEM are constantly giving us 1 to 1.25 qpf.... .75 is not cool. The NAM is having issues again. Even the SREFS are wetter. Do you really think NYC is going to get screwed like the NAM shows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 It's a solid 1.00-1.25" for the entire DCA/Balt/Annapolis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Clown map looks just like the others....just fine. I love the location of the snow hole - Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I know who that was a "disaster run" for, and it isn't this region... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 For DC-BWI I think this run is perfect because it places us solidly in the center of the heaviest axis of precip. Whether its 0.75 or 1.25, whatever this storm pans out to be I want to be in the center of it. I'll take this ANY day. Especially when earlier runs had us much closer to the cutoffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 almost a hecs, but not quite hehe Hysterical east Coast snow! Weenie's faint in worry! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I am just looking at soundings. It is a tad warmer aloft and has more of a sleet/rain mix hanging on a little longer farther E. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?sounding.lat=38.9081&sounding.lon=-77.0087&sndclick=y&prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2011&model_mm=01&model_dd=26&model_init_hh=00&fhour=21¶meter=PCPIN&level=12&unit=HR&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=y&output=image&view=large&archive=false http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?sounding.lat=38.8910&sounding.lon=-77.0306&sndclick=y&prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2011&model_mm=01&model_dd=25&model_init_hh=18&fhour=27¶meter=PCPIN&level=24&unit=HR&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=y&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 NAM is doing that screwy 2 low thing again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 You weenies crashed NCEP. Shame on you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 the diff between the Euro and the NAM is like night and day for NE I'm trying to figure out how the he!! this went from a NE bliz to a MA special more proof that its real hard to get a storm that hits the entire eastern seaboard from VA to ME i doubt it's right up there maybe not here either but their a little further out in range. the nam has very little run to run consistency at the surface lately... or at least it is prone to bouncing around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 For DC-BWI I think this run is perfect because it places us solidly in the center of the heaviest axis of precip. Whether its 0.75 or 1.25, whatever this storm pans out to be I want to be in the center of it. I'll take this ANY day. Especially when earlier runs had us much closer to the cutoffs. Let's just hope it is cold enough at the surface. NW suburbs are good for 6"+ but every degree will matter at such marginal temps, along I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Pretty marginal. It is the NAM it could very well be run by run shifts that mean little. Verbatim areas to the E would see a tad more mixing before a full changeover. I am just saying exactly what the NAM has--not what I believe may or may not happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Just wait for the RGEM and GFS if you are worried. If they stay wet, this NAM run is no big deal. Jumps like this happen in the biggest storms, you just don't notice because you go from 2.00 to 1.75. Going from 1.25 to 1.00 is not unusual run-to-run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 It's a solid 1.00-1.25" for the entire DCA/Balt/Annapolis which is probably a realistic best case scenario which is what the models are showing. this thing is moving too fast to drop a lot more than that and even 1" might be a stretch for all we know tho plenty of guidance meets that threshold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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