Quasievil Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I have taken unmerciful teasing at work for it, but its worth it, I think its funny more then anything else. I'm sure...it's all in good fun though. You saw the trends early...you get credit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The NAM 0Z looks about the same overall--although it has a better looking mid level mass response field. May be even more defined with the deformation band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Models are awesome. yeah, but last night's 6Z runs we need to talk about them finally, ok? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I like em with a little meat on their bones. As much grief as they have gotten this yr this could be a monumental victory for the idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I hope someone is saving these 00Z runs because I suspect they will be freaking awesome weather porn. Phin, I am going with 8-12 for our area but that might be conservative. If the UK and RGEM are right, and the low really gets going and we get stuck under that deform as it slides northeast...watch out this could approach HECS for our area. There are some classic signs of a super band setting up somewhere around here tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Phin, I am going with 8-12 for our area but that might be conservative. If the UK and RGEM are right, and the low really gets going and we get stuck under that deform as it slides northeast...watch out this could approach HECS for our area. There are some classic signs of a super band setting up somewhere around here tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I think my idea of 3 to 6 might be too low I'm issuing a Winter Storm Warning Watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The NAM 0Z looks about the same overall--although it has a better looking mid level mass response field. May be even more defined with the deformation band. those things just seem to love to setup right over me with this kind of track...plus my 1000 feet elevation is going to help with ratios. I like where I am right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Juiced at 24 and ready for KABOOM at 30! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I think my idea of 3 to 6 might be too low I'm issuing a Winter Storm Warning Watch. as crushing as 18Z NAM was, 18hrs on 0Z is more impressive than 24 on 18z I expect huge qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 oh my next panel should be hard to take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The changeover at DCA looks a little later than on the earlier progs. It's really marginal at 21Z with though the temps still might support snow as the warm layer temps is only .2 or .3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 cute little thing, ain't she? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I think my idea of 3 to 6 might be too low I'm issuing a Winter Storm Warning Watch. Might be an EPIC storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 seems a hair slower this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Might be an EPIC storm. I need a level above EPIC for this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 hmm, a hair drier this run, but right in line with GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 seems a hair slower this run That might explain the slightly slower changeover for dca. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Where's the kaboom at 30 hr? There's supposed to be an earth shattering kaboom. Still looks good for VA. I'm in the blue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I need a level above EPIC for this one Just look down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 disaster run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 disaster run no, "back to reality" run its now in line with GFS, we're between .75-1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The changeover at DCA looks a little later than on the earlier progs. It's really marginal at 21Z with though the temps still might support snow as the warm layer temps is only .2 or .3. Where is the warm layer? At 18z the 0c 850 line is on I-95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 It is a tick slower and has more easterly winds in the low levels as well--so it is a tick warmer and a little dryer too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 no, "back to reality" run its now in line with GFS, we're between .75-1" the euro gives us over an inch. The NAM always does this crap right before the storm after a great 18z qpf run. Next! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Much different for the NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 This run is hardly any different than the last two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 It is a tick slower and has more easterly winds in the low levels as well--so it is a tick warmer and a little dryer too. actually, for BWI, its the coldest run so far looks like everything that falls is snow WED 1A 26-JAN -0.5 -0.1 1019 82 68 0.00 559 544 WED 7A 26-JAN -0.3 -2.4 1015 97 100 0.07 556 543 WED 1P 26-JAN 1.9 -0.6 1009 93 98 0.09 551 543 WED 7P 26-JAN 0.2 -3.9 1006 97 100 0.34 542 537 THU 1A 27-JAN -0.1 -5.1 1008 96 94 0.36 540 534 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 those things just seem to love to setup right over me with this kind of track...plus my 1000 feet elevation is going to help with ratios. I like where I am right now. I love our elevation. We seem to get obscene totals that are always several inches higher than the surrounding areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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