Kmlwx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 What am I missing here . Why is LWX so hesistant to hoist any warning east of the Blue Ridge. All their zone forecasts indicate at least 5 inches will fall from this. But yet they remain hesitant and talk about the NAM being an outlier. I don't want to start this whole debate again, but it seems like lots of people are being extra cautious with that storm. Yet, when I read that thing from Hydro talking about possible extreme conditions for a few hours right around evening rush hour, I would think everyone would want to start letting the public know tomorrow maybe shouldn't be a full work day to avoid traffic chaos. They simply have higher confidence where the warning has been issued. Give it some time. They will likely come east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 What am I missing here . Why is LWX so hesistant to hoist any warning east of the Blue Ridge. All their zone forecasts indicate at least 5 inches will fall from this. But yet they remain hesitant and talk about the NAM being an outlier. I don't want to start this whole debate again, but it seems like lots of people are being extra cautious with this storm. Yet, when I read that thing from Hydro talking about possible extreme conditions for a few hours right around evening rush hour, I would think everyone would want to start letting the public know tomorrow maybe shouldn't be a full work day to avoid traffic chaos. They are just being cautious after the failed WSW in Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 What am I missing here . Why is LWX so hesistant to hoist any warning east of the Blue Ridge. All their zone forecasts indicate at least 5 inches will fall from this. But yet they remain hesitant and talk about the NAM being an outlier. I don't want to start this whole debate again, but it seems like lots of people are being extra cautious with this storm. Yet, when I read that thing from Hydro talking about possible extreme conditions for a few hours right around evening rush hour, I would think everyone would want to start letting the public know tomorrow maybe shouldn't be a full work day to avoid traffic chaos. So they wait for the 0Z runs to come in and hoist the warnings if all is on par. What's the difference? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 It's going to be interesting to read the diagnosis of this winter after its over. Sure seems that it has not behaved as thought by many. We are finally in the bullseye for this one. I just made it home. I cut my trip short just to be here. I think 6+ is a lock at this point. Joy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The NAM led the way on the cooldown. I can understand LWX being nervous tho the GFS and Euro are on board for thumpage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanVA Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Is the UKIE a pay model? Not sure I can tell anything from that except the low is in a really good place. We aren't even tracking the SLP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 So they wait for the 0Z runs to come in and hoist the warnings if all is on par. What's the difference? I don't know. There probably isn't one -- except lead time perhaps so the message gets out in the 6 p.m. news so people know before they go to bed. I just sort of think people around here are not taking the potential of 6 inches in a brief time seriously. Everyone I talk to about the possible storm, seems to be dismissive of it and not worried. Maybe they are right, but this could turn ugly tomorrow afternoon if it starts sticking on roads fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Hmmmm..... Tonight: A slight chance of snow after 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 20%.Wednesday: A chance of rain and snow before 9am, then snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 35. North wind between 6 and 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Wednesday Night: Snow, mainly before midnight. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 25. North wind around 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. ......and no warning yet. They would have been more than safe to extend those warnings to the initial watch area at least in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Curlyq Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 HPC forecast for Frederick... Wednesday: A chance of rain and snow before 9am, then snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 35. North wind between 6 and 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Wednesday Night: Snow, mainly before midnight. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 25. North wind around 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HiltonHeadWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 My Davis weather station in Hagerstown is down to 33.2F after a max of 41.8F at 3:30 this afternoon. Dew point is 24. A nice cool down, thanks in part to it being only partly cloudy. Hopefully, when the clouds move in and thicken later it will just cap the temps. It looks like nearly all snow here tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Been a while since I have seen my forecast say Heavy Snow. I love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 What am I missing here . Why is LWX so hesistant to hoist any warning east of the Blue Ridge. All their zone forecasts indicate at least 5 inches will fall from this. But yet they remain hesitant and talk about the NAM being an outlier. I don't want to start this whole debate again, but it seems like lots of people are being extra cautious with this storm. Yet, when I read that thing from Hydro talking about possible extreme conditions for a few hours right around evening rush hour, I would think everyone would want to start letting the public know tomorrow maybe shouldn't be a full work day to avoid traffic chaos. The NWS world is divided into forecast periods. They will issue a WSW when the real accumulating stuff is no more than two or three periods from verifying, I think that east of the Blue Ridge, the roads will not have accumulating snow until close to sunset so around 10 pm or 11 pm is when they need to pull the trigger or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 If this verifies, the EURO will have led the way about four days ago for a high qpf storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 image Looks like they are banking on the megaband for Frederick. Wouldn't surprise me if it happened. BTW, what model/data do they use for that output? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I swear I saw something different just 5 minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The NWS world is divided into forecast periods. They will issue a WSW when the real accumulating stuff is no more than two or three periods from verifying, I think that east of the Blue Ridge, the roads will not have accumulating snow until close to sunset so around 10 pm or 11 pm is when they need to pull the trigger or not. I understand that. But they also can do it it earlier if they are confident enough. Last year, I am pretty sure the Warning for Feb. 5 went up the Wednesday afternoon before a storm slated to start Friday morning. Why? They wanted people to know the potential for a big-time disruptive event. This is nothing like that, but it still could be disruptive and seems like confidence is there for at least 5 inches. They are usually fairly trigger happy to hoist warnings around here for even marginal snow events so i am just surprised at the caution, that's all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 As someone else mentioned....the cloud deck is relatively thin and temps are dropping pretty quickly. Down to 33.9 here already. Going to be very tough for temps to warm tomorrow if the precip moves in during the morning hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I swear I saw something different just 5 minutes ago. It's now orientated more west to east than before, when it was orientated with a north to south tilt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy4Wx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 With the models trending colder and the QPF being over 1 inch I get the feeling that everyone is being very gun-shy about this storm. It would seem as is if everyone feels like they have been burned soo badly so many times this season in the MA that they would rather call it low and have it go high than the reverse. Anyone else sensing this or is it just me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 With the models trending colder and the QPF being over 1 inch I get the feeling that everyone is being very gun-shy about this storm. It would seem as is if everyone feels like they have been burned soo badly so many times this season in the MA that they would rather call it low and have it go high than the reverse. Anyone else sensing this or is it just me? The difference here (outside of Dec 26 and even that event to some extent) never had this level of precip area wide. None of the models within 24 hours had such a large event for the area. This is a public safety issue with the timing of this event. I can tell you for a fact that none of my fellow employee's had any idea more than some rain and flurries were incoming. The evening news cast did nothing to change that opinion either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Yoda, I am peering at a blackberry and can't see what maps those are or what they are showing in any detail. What's the story with them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I understand that. But they also can do it it earlier if they are confident enough. It makes sense for them to wait until the last moment that allows them to be compliant with NWS policy. This storm is not set in stone or in a slot or chugging down the rails. Big features, yes, but banding and deformation zones can't be known until seen on radar and on animated water vapor loop. Everyone has a smart phone these days if they want one; it takes something special to be caught unaware in a middle sized snow. For everyone else, no harm in hoisting a toilet paper alert for those that use it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 With the models trending colder and the QPF being over 1 inch I get the feeling that everyone is being very gun-shy about this storm. It would seem as is if everyone feels like they have been burned soo badly so many times this season in the MA that they would rather call it low and have it go high than the reverse. Anyone else sensing this or is it just me? It is a huge public safety issue. A Baltimore area radio forecast just called for mainly rain with a chance of snow in the evening little to no accumulation. People have no idea what is coming. The winter storm watch was not reported. I predict carnage on the roads just becasue a lot of people with no clue will be out and about during rush hour thinking they will encounter rain. The NWS should move quick. A warning will at least get the attention of the local news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I understand that. But they also can do it it earlier if they are confident enough. Last year, I am pretty sure the Warning for Feb. 5 went up the Wednesday afternoon before a storm slated to start Friday morning. Why? They wanted people to know the potential for a big-time disruptive event. This is nothing like that, but it still could be disruptive and seems like confidence is there for at least 5 inches. They are usually fairly trigger happy to hoist warnings around here for even marginal snow events so i am just surprised they at the caution, that's all. I understand your concern, but having a Warning up or not having a Warning up does not determine if it is going to snow or not snow. Your multiple posts are coming across as someone who does not understand the simple logic of my statements. I know that is not the case for you and I see your point, but no need to beat it to death so to speak. If by early tomorrow morning Warnings are not issues and you look at radar and see the storm barreling down on us then you have a more legitimate case to post your concern. For now try and mix patience with your excitement and concerns. Best of luck to you in getting some major snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Yoda, I am peering at a blackberry and can't see what maps those are or what they are showing in any detail. What's the story with them? That map is a whole lotta love my friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 It is a huge public safety issue. A Baltimore area radio forecast just called for mainly rain with a chance of snow in the evening little to no accumulation. People have no idea what is coming. The winter storm watch was not reported. I predict carnage on the roads just becasue a lot of people with no clue will be out and about during rush hour thinking they will encounter rain. The NWS should move quick. A warning will at least get the attention of the local news. This is Maryland. Roads will be carnage WSW or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Yoda, I am peering at a blackberry and can't see what maps those are or what they are showing in any detail. What's the story with them? 36 hr QPF large area of 0.5 to 0.75. Not sure if that is 6 or 12 hr QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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