snowlurker Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Instead of asking IMBY questions, I try to uncover the info for myself and mostly lurk. So, can anyone tell me whether it's meaningful and possible to determine when/if a particular location has really high omegas? Perhaps there's a website similar to soundings which show this? I last heard thundersnow in 1992 and don't want to miss it if at all possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazeKing Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Some HPC lovin' , going for the middle between NAM/GFS looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Some HPC lovin' , going for the middle between NAM/GFS looks like It would help to get the full picture... snow gets cut into two separate days: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Maybe but compared to the tv guys we're giddy. Wes, the NAM and GFS obviously both show a real spanking of precip. for 6 hrs. at about the 30 hr, mark, the SREF shows it too but with less intensity. Do you need one more 6 hr. model run or two more model runs until you feel really confident about that intense 6 hr. period of precip. verifying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Day 1-2 map looks nice as well: Orange VA looks primed for a dumping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 it's always nice to see tornado warnings in fl before a storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 6z nam says what snow? http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/06/fp0_042.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Good lord. That's insane! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lester Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 <br />6z nam says what snow?<br /><br /> <a href='http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/06/fp0_042.shtml' class='bbc_url' title='External link' rel='nofollow external'>http://www.nco.ncep....6/fp0_042.shtml</a><br /> <br /><br /><br />Add that with the 75 degree surface temps..storm cancel (I'm kidding) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazeKing Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Day 1-2 map looks nice as well: Even better!! :gun_bandana: - - - - - - DC SNOWHOLE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 a little OT, but I've never seen this look on a 500mb map its the 384 hrs GFS just seems to want to keep us cold ad infinitum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Yeesh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 548 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011 && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... -- Changed Discussion --HEADS UP THAT WE ARE GOING TO UPGRADE THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ALL COUNTIES WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE WE HAVE INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN 5 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD. NAM IS COLDER AND WOULD SUGGEST WARNING SNOW CRITERIA EAST TO INTERSTATE 95 BUT IS A RELATIVE OUTLIER TO THE 18Z GFS AND 12Z ECWMF WHICH WOULD SUGGEST LESS SNOW EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS PRESENTS CONFIDENCE ISSUES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE REGARDING SNOWFALL TOTALS SO WINTER STORM WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR NOW. [ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 NWS with 4-6" total for Anne Arundel County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 a little OT, but I've never seen this look on a 500mb map its the 384 hrs GFS just seems to want to keep us cold ad infinitum man that is an amzing looking map no lack of cold this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 602 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011 MDZ003-501-502-VAZ025>031-503-504-WVZ050>053-055-501>506-260715- /O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0002.110126T1100Z-110127T0500Z/ /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.W.0003.110126T1200Z-110127T0500Z/ WASHINGTON-EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY- AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE- WESTERN HIGHLAND-EASTERN HIGHLAND-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY- JEFFERSON-HARDY-WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL- EASTERN MINERAL-WESTERN PENDLETON-EASTERN PENDLETON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAGERSTOWN...FROSTBURG...CUMBERLAND... STAUNTON...WAYNESBORO...HARRISONBURG...WINCHESTER...FRONT ROYAL... HIGHTOWN...MONTEREY...MARTINSBURG...CHARLES TOWN...MOOREFIELD... BAYARD...MOUNT STORM...PETERSBURG...ELK GARDEN...KEYSER... FORT ASHBY...CIRCLEVILLE...FRANKLIN 602 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW. A LITTLE SLEET COULD MIX IN AT THE ONSET. * ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES. * TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN JUST AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY...AND MID MORNING FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE. SNOW CONTINUES BEFORE ENDING LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING. HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE FROM EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING WEDNESDAY. * TEMPERATURES...LOWER TO MID 30S WEDNESDAY...DROPPING TO THE MID 20S WEDNESDAY NIGHT. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH WEDNESDAY...BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH WEDNESDAY EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 a little OT, but I've never seen this look on a 500mb map its the 384 hrs GFS just seems to want to keep us cold ad infinitum Cross-polar vodka cold, baby!!!! Don S. may need an entire new essay for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 NWS with 4-6" total for Anne Arundel County really, I'm in N AA County and they have me at 5-9" http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Linthicum+Heights&state=MD&site=LWX&lat=39.208&lon=-76.6695 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 man that is an amzing looking map no lack of cold this winter It's going to be interesting to read the diagnosis of this winter after its over. Sure seems that it has not behaved as thought by many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 We're gonna get snow - It had better be cold after - I have been freezing my tarkus off all winter, 8 straight weeks with perfectly brown grass. Once we get snowpack - I want frigid weather with strong winds. I want to have plenty of time to kick back and savor jebwalk after jebwalk after jebwalk after jebwalk and to take at least 10000 snow pics with my trusty iPhone. I got PLENTY of HD space on my home computer - at least 880 gigs - and that puppy IS expandable - I got thousands of snow pics I want to store there as well as all those beautiful model runs off American Wx Forums - I WILL NEVER EVER BE EASTERNED AGAIN, now or in the future. I WORSHIP snow and cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Just a quick note to everyone here. It is now within "Nowcasting" time--and it is worth watching trends and how this storm develops wrt the model guidance. Personally I think the NAM 18Z being a tad NW of the GFS is probably more realistic given the intensity of the PV max and the fact these defo bands typically end up farther displaced from the low level circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 We're gonna get snow - It had better be cold after - I have been freezing my tarkus off all winter, 8 straight weeks with perfectly brown grass. Once we get snowpack - I want frigid weather with strong winds. I want to have plenty of time to kick back and savor jebwalk after jebwalk after jebwalk after jebwalk and to take at least 10000 snow pics with my trusty iPhone. I got PLENTY of HD space on my home computer - at least 880 gigs - and that puppy IS expandable - I got thousands of snow pics I want to store there as well as all those beautiful model runs off American Wx Forums - I WILL NEVER EVER BE EASTERNED AGAIN, now or in the future. I WORSHIP snow and cold. The question is, have you backed up all your snow pics? Maybe store them in that underground vault built into a mountain somewhere in upstate NY. Bill Gates keeps his art there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Just a quick note to everyone here. It is now within "Nowcasting" time--and it is worth watching trends and how this storm develops wrt the model guidance. Personally I think the NAM 18Z being a tad NW of the GFS is probably more realistic given the intensity of the PV max and the fact these defo bands typically end up farther displaced from the low level circulation. Agreed and agreed. Someone start verifying the 6hr/12hr with the mesoscale page... I'm off to bed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Cross-polar vodka cold, baby!!!! Don S. may need an entire new essay for this one. Once we have snowpack then we get the cross polar WE ARE MONEY - We'll make 160 million dollars in the Bellagio on the Vegas Strip look like chump change and Clooney and his crew look like disillusioned dreamers We'll have more than our hearts could dream in a million Ice Age Winters! We'll have radiational cooling straight up the ass! There will be water main breaks all over Washington - with ample opportunity for Ice Jebwalks in the frosty sunshine. We'll fall below zero for lows and the surface albedo will be so high that we'll have a week straight of highs ONLY in the TEENS in DCA!!! Oh the fights for parking throughout the region!!! I'll have WEEKS to savor many a leisurely snow jebwalk. I LOVE THIS NINA SO MUCH!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The question is, have you backed up all your snow pics? Maybe store them in that underground vault built into a mountain somewhere in upstate NY. Bill Gates keeps his art there. Everything is backed up. All we need now is the snow then an unrelenting cross polar flow. Man I LOVE this atypical La Nina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 really, I'm in N AA County and they have me at 5-9" http://forecast.weat...08&lon=-76.6695 Interesting...doesn't NWS do forecasts for Weather Underground? http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=21113 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 FWIW 18z UKIE 24 -- http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ukm/2011012518/slp4.png 30 -- http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ukm/2011012518/slp5.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 really, I'm in N AA County and they have me at 5-9" http://forecast.weat...08&lon=-76.6695 That's interesting. They have me for 1 inch during the day and 3-5 at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 FWIW 18z UKIE 24 -- http://moe.met.fsu.e...012518/slp4.png 30 -- http://moe.met.fsu.e...012518/slp5.png Is the UKIE a pay model? Not sure I can tell anything from that except the low is in a really good place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 What am I missing here . Why is LWX so hesistant to hoist any warning east of the Blue Ridge. All their zone forecasts indicate at least 5 inches will fall from this. But yet they remain hesitant and talk about the NAM being an outlier. I don't want to start this whole debate again, but it seems like lots of people are being extra cautious with this storm. Yet, when I read that thing from Hydro talking about possible extreme conditions for a few hours right around evening rush hour, I would think everyone would want to start letting the public know tomorrow maybe shouldn't be a full work day to avoid traffic chaos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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