mdhokie Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Has anyone at HPC used the term STEMWINDER yet? Thats when you know this storm is fo' real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Impressive gfs. I'm surprised at how conservative some of the media is in view of .75 in 6 hr qpf. Me too, no one here at my job has any idea a snowstorm is even possible besides myself. I think many people are going to be very suprised by the impacts of this storm, since 6-12 inches of wet snow can do a number on trees/powerlines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Impressive gfs. I'm surprised at how conservative some of the media is in view of .75 in 6 hr qpf. dc is a tough place to forecast obviously but some of the mets around here are just not very good forecasters. i think that's partly why cwg has been so well received. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Wes et al, what are you guys thinking for numbers???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Wes et al, what are you guys thinking for numbers???? map is going out soon (15 min or so).. wes' post has the general idea tho http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2011/01/odds_increasing_for_heavy_wet.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 dc is a tough place to forecast obviously but some of the mets around here are just not very good forecasters. i think that's partly why cwg has been so well received. No argument there. Regardless, we seem pretty much locked in for at least our biggest storm of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Colonel Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 If the news agencies don't get on this... (if not by 6pm, I'll give them 11PM) those of us who have to commute tomorrow will be faced with a ****show. My boss already blindly says that there will be nothing because the Weather Channel says nothing...expect to be here all day. This has a big potential to be a ClusterF to say the least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazeKing Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Probably from all the hate mail they get when they bust high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 If the news agencies don't get on this... (if not by 6pm, I'll give them 11PM) those of us who have to commute tomorrow will be faced with a ****show. My boss already blindly says that there will be nothing because the Weather Channel says nothing...expect to be here all day. This has a big potential to be a ClusterF to say the least That's the truth. If the timing on this is that the worst/best of the rates comes after 6, the commute is going to be ugly, especially for people who have long distances to go. I'm already planning to leave early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 map is going out soon (15 min or so).. wes' post has the general idea tho http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2011/01/odds_increasing_for_heavy_wet.html Wes/you guys might be a little low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 map is going out soon (15 min or so).. wes' post has the general idea tho http://voices.washin..._heavy_wet.html I was thinking 4-8 as a start for IAD and BWI, but these things sometimes have a mind of it's own when H5 is involved with dynamics. Someone may get "screwed", but then another person will get smoked. I thought that range will cover it, but quite possibly, some will get more. I wouldn't be shocked of the 00z runs shift that bullseye around just a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Wes/you guys might be a little low Maybe but compared to the tv guys we're giddy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Still seems like the majority are running with the rain idea.....barely 1-3 even for Tommy T in DC/BWI.....I am shocked at the level they are playing this down. Have to agree with Wes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Wes/you guys might be a little low Don't look at me I'm always more bullish than the team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Symblized Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Anybody note this from HPC heavy snow discussion? Didn't see it among the rest. We knew it, but I like it when HPC gets giddy with language like "off the charts." http://www.hpc.ncep....ons/qpfhsd.html /snip THE INSTABILITY AND UVVS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING DEFORMATION ZONE/COMMA-HEAD WILL BE OFF THE CHARTS... POSSIBLY ALLOWING A CONVECTIVE ASPECT TO BECOME INVOLVED. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE IN INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS THE DC/BWI AREA FROM LATE TMRW AFTN TO VERY EARLY THURS MORNING BEFORE THE ENTIRE PHASING SYSTEM MOVES RAPIDLY UP THE COAST. /snip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Actually, doug hill just came in with similar amounts to what we posted on CWG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Actually, doug hill just came in with similar amounts to what we posted on CWG. The numbers are good I think, especially with caveats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Has anyone at HPC used the term STEMWINDER yet? Thats when you know this storm is fo' real. I seem to recall them using the term recently (maybe back in December ?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timstobrazil Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Actually, doug hill just came in with similar amounts to what we posted on CWG. Yeah on WTOP he was not over hyping the storm but did say that there could be 5-6 inches, that seems reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SerialDerecho Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 already posted. read more, post less. You really are a trip Probably should do more of that yourself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlYourWxPal Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Actually, doug hill just came in with similar amounts to what we posted on CWG. i just told him that since I work here as Bob's weather producer. He was happy to hear that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 If the news agencies don't get on this... (if not by 6pm, I'll give them 11PM) those of us who have to commute tomorrow will be faced with a ****show. My boss already blindly says that there will be nothing because the Weather Channel says nothing...expect to be here all day. This has a big potential to be a ClusterF to say the least If it's not a full-fledged snow pre-dawn, I see myself doing the Columbia-DC commute at 5am and then bugging out of DC around/by noon/early afternoon (depending on storm evolution) -- again, assuming steady state and the morning sees mostly rain/snow/mix with the expected changeover during the PM. Subject to change (and my whims), of course. And must consider the difference in conditions between HoCo and DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The numbers are good I think, especially with caveats We'll have caveats. certainly wouldn't want 1-3 and I saw that from one outlet that was critical of the NWS wsw. I think their, the nws, warming or watch is justified. I remember nov 1987 and feb 1987 as two storm with warm temps prior to them that still had pretty big snow totals. So did mar 1958 but that was a different animal. Some are making too big a deal of the surface temps today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 i thought WVA was wild and wonderful, but it sure must be boring if you are TROLLING on this board all day If you feel that somebody's post is legit out of line then you can report it. You don't have to clutter the thread even more...The report button is simple to use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Wes...remember in the 80s when they used to issue heavy snow warnings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timstobrazil Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 If you feel that somebody's post is legit out of line then you can report it. You don't have to clutter the thread even more...The report button is simple to use. you're right, deleted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 That UL energy to the west is just bursting with potential http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php This time it will NOT miss us to the north I am just kickin' on back watching this storm come together. Watching that deform/comma head develop and wallop the hell outta RIC to EZF to Woodbridge to DCA to balto to Philly on NE is gonna be a really satisfying snowgasmer's prolonged wet dream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 We'll have caveats. certainly wouldn't want 1-3 and I saw that from one outlet that was critical of the NWS wsw. I think their, the nws, warming or watch is justified. I remember nov 1987 and feb 1987 as two storm with warm temps prior to them that still had pretty big snow totals. So did mar 1958 but that was a different animal. Some are making too big a deal of the surface temps today. Clearly its warmer today, but it isn't like its been in the 40s for a week. We'll lose some early collection to melting, sure, but not all of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 We'll have caveats. certainly wouldn't want 1-3 and I saw that from one outlet that was critical of the NWS wsw. I think their, the nws, warming or watch is justified. I remember nov 1987 and feb 1987 as two storm with warm temps prior to them that still had pretty big snow totals. So did mar 1958 but that was a different animal. Some are making too big a deal of the surface temps today. I definitely would not go lower. I think we can top 3-6 but we'd need everything to go right I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I definitely would not go lower. I think we can top 3-6 but we'd need everything to go right I guess. I think we could also but like Jason's number's. They look pretty good to me for a 1st guess especially with the convective banding caveat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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