CarolineWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 APG? what about RIC area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 One would think the Euro has to nail one of these MR storms at some point this year right? This is probably at least the 4th time this year it has showed a big storm at like 120 hrs and nothing has really panned out south of PHL to say the least. I'm riding the law of averages here and thinking the Euro gets this one right.....................until 1 am tonight at least. I feel more like this is poker. The house always wins.. but there is always that one time when you beat the house... and I am hoping this is the time we cash in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 guys--this storm starts in 96 hours or less just south of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 anybody quick qpf of mid va RIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 guys--this storm starts in 96 hours or less just south of us Yes, but we have seen Lucy do this before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 This sucker starts in 100 hours, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 This sucker starts in 100 hours, right? Monday morning supposedly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 the gfs does have some support at least.. what supports the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 .93..it really dosent stop snowing for APG starts tuesday and ends thursday La, la, la, lock it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 the gfs does have some support at least.. what supports the euro? JMA kind of Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 the gfs does have some support at least.. what supports the euro? Is the GGEM more like the Euro or GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 La, la, la, lock it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 NOGAPS is snow to heavy rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 the gfs does have some support at least.. what supports the euro? GFS is supported by the GGEM? What about its ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 NOGAPS is snow to heavy rain You should probably post maps for us lazy people Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 the gfs does have some support at least.. what supports the euro? An inexorable sense that this time it's our turn? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 You should probably post maps for us lazy people https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=ngp_namer&dtg=2011012012∏=prpτ=120&set=Core Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 You should probably post maps for us lazy people http://www.americanw...post__p__322212 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I'll just confirm that the NOGAPS is still north west of most guidance with this threat and the most inland. I think the main reason for this is how it handles the energy. Unlike the Canadian and GFS.. it keeps all the energy together instead of separating it and leaving a piece is the south-west. So it then phases that energy with the northern branch and we get the solution the nogaps has. Euro does not leave the energy behind either.. so... we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Isnt the Euro suppose to leave the s/w behind? It cant even get its own biases right this season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I am encouraged to see the NOGAPS all wound up and not progressive and OTS. Furthermore, I will deploy some weenie logic and say that I really don't see that kind of inland track for this storm - I don't believe the NOGAPS when it has the low inland over High Point, NC or wherever. In other words, I will choose to believe the things I like about this run and discard the ones that would argue against snow :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The PDII talk continues unabated in the Philly/NYC Miller A thread. Let's go ahead and lock in 30 inches for Tuesday to Thursday then... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 12Z GFS ensembles generally do NOT like the first s/w that the Euro blows up. 2 members pop a storm off the VA/NC coast on Tuesday, 1 of which gives us some snow. Most of the ensemble members pick up on the 2nd (or 3rd?) piece of energy in the Gulf 150hrs+ and try to bring it northeast. Many of those give us rain...a few snow. Several members cant figure out what to do at all. Still lots of spread. Ensemble mean precip for the Tuesday event keeps the 0.1" line DC and south. Then gets the 0.25" line in the neighborhood in the 200-220hr point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Now where have I seen this before? A storm modeled in the 4-6 day period with around 0.5-.75 precip targeted for the DC/BWI area, but with more precip to the east and NE. This has been the Euro's pattern for the last few storms. As time gets closer the precip maxes migrate more easterly and northerly until we get little. Not saying that this is going to happen again, but I have seen this too many times this winter. GGEM and GFS already have the bulk of precip modeled to our east and north. I hope that this time things things turn out better. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The PDII talk continues in the Philly/NYC Miller A thread. Let's go ahead and lock in 30 inches for Tuesday to Thursday then... Earthlight did say it was an epic setup for sig snowstorm... but I was told they were all weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 In other words, I will choose to believe the things I like about this run and discard the ones that would argue against snow :-) Well played. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Earthlight did say it was an epic setup for sig snowstorm... but I was told they were all weenies Well, it is pretty weenie-ish to start murmuring about one of the legendary storms of recent memory off of one run of the Euro five days out, that's for damn sure. Then again, they fart and it snows up that way this year, so perhaps that is what it's like to be "in the zone", you see KUs behind every corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Is the GGEM more like the Euro or GFS? i think it's more like the gfs tho the euro backed off the big bomb but it does not seem to hold that big piece back in the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 EURO/NoGaps/JMA show big precip makers vs GFS/GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Earthlight did say it was an epic setup for sig snowstorm... but I was told they were all weenies no offense but i personally care very little what anyone in their forum says. the setup on the euro is good obviously but to compare it to a top 10 storm in this area right now is silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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