Symblized Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Okay, the RGEM is getting ri-goddamn-diculous now. For those of you who are counting, the 38 mm max at, oh, Rising Sun MD or so, is almost exactly 1.5 inches of QPF, aka 18 [edit because I never learned how to count, apparently] 15 inches of snow if all frozen at 10:1 ratios (or of course 9 feet at bufkit ratios). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Amounts? On iPhone!! 1" QPF EZF north on RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 For those of you who are counting, the 38 mm max at, oh, Rising Sun MD or so, is almost exactly 1.5 inches of QPF, aka 18 inches of snow if all frozen at 10:1 ratios (or of course 9 feet at bufkit ratios). I could be wrong but wouldn't that be 15 inches at 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 RGEM is easily my favorite short term snowstorm model. It makes the NAM look like the nogaps in terms of qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Symblized Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I could be wrong but wouldn't that be 15 inches at 10:1 D'oh thanks you are correct (and its fixed). Wow for terrifyingly bad math. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Ian, are you serious? Never can tell. I'm looking at 1-3 tomorrow then 3-5 tomorrow night. I would think you should be the same. Yours Truly, yes but im talking about someone else's forecast not my own Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I have my ELO all ready to go on the iPhone. Don't think I can do the later stuff in honor of Jan '87 tho. Maybe old school "A New World Order" will do. Sorry for the OT, admins. "Jebwalk" has become a hallowed lexicon in the das household. ahem... A New World 'Record'... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 it's going to be really hard to get 1.5"+ qpf with an event moving this fast.. that's about what DCA got in snowmageddon .. of course there was more to the north but let's just keep these things in mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 it's going to be really hard to get 1.5"+ qpf with an event moving this fast.. that's about what DCA got in snowmageddon .. of course there was more to the north but let's just keep these things in mind Yeah you would need some prolific rates to get 1.5 inches in a storm that may only last 6-10 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 it's going to be really hard to get 1.5"+ qpf with an event moving this fast.. that's about what DCA got in snowmageddon .. of course there was more to the north but let's just keep these things in mind and i cant see the snow being heavier than the Feb 5,2010 storm either which it would have to be to get that much qpf in that time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Okay, the RGEM is getting ri-goddamn-diculous now. I am really digging everyone's sayings during these model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 and i cant see the snow being heavier than the Feb 5,2010 storm either which it would have to be to get that much qpf in that time frame i think there were some nam panels in that event spitting out over 1" in 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Yeah you would need some prolific rates to get 1.5 inches in a storm that may only last 6-10 hours. Lets say the heavy snow last 8 hours. .1875 inches per hour. At a 10:1 ratio that is less than 2 inches an hour. I think that is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Lets say the heavy snow last 8 hours. .1875 inches per hour. At a 10:1 ratio that is less than 2 inches an hour. I think that is possible. You have to keep in mind though that it won't be a constant 2 inches an hour. Likely to be banding with short lulls between bands like we always see. It's tough to get it to thump continuously for hours without even a short break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Here's some real analysis from a "TV met". http://www.wbaltv.com/blogometer/index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 TAKE ALL TV MET TALK HERE THANKS http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/10990-talk-about-tv-mets-here-regarding-the-storm-or-whatever-else-you-think-of/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 You have to keep in mind though that it won't be a constant 2 inches an hour. Likely to be banding with short lulls between bands like we always see. It's tough to get it to thump continuously for hours without even a short break. that is true... but throw in a thundersnow... and that could be a quick 4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 TAKE ALL TV MET TALK HERE THANKS http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/10990-talk-about-tv-mets-here-regarding-the-storm-or-whatever-else-you-think-of/ Yeoman thanks you profusely I'm sure. Recall the hounds Smithers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Anyone post the clown maps for 18Z NAM? I did check, could not find. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 that is true... but throw in a thundersnow... and that could be a quick 4 inches. No argument there for sure. It should average out but I would tend to agree with Ian about most of us maxing out between 1 inch QPF and maybe 1.1ish...tough to get those 1.5 totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Looks good now, maybe 4-8? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Yeoman thanks you profusely I'm sure. Recall the hounds Smithers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCWeatherJunkie Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 1.1"???? Storm Fail. Winter Cancel. No argument there for sure. It should average out but I would tend to agree with Ian about most of us maxing out between 1 inch QPF and maybe 1.1ish...tough to get those 1.5 totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
historynerd Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Anyone with a brain should know that TV weather casters are 6 time zones behind their own ass 99% of the time, and that the most recent information is IN THIS THREAD, thus making just about any other source, including the NWS, not worth reporting IN THIS THREAD. I wish the weenies would get that through their head, or create your own thread discussing why someone on TV sporting a History degree and a couple of physical geography courses is wrong. Because clearly the members without meteorological degrees in this thread know more than those at the NWS. That's an extremely ignorant statement. Do you even know what goes into getting a meteorological degree? Your lack or respect for those that know more than you is despicable. Try going to school for meteorology like I did and I think you'd respect the profession a little more. I may not have become a meteorologist but at least I don't feel like the opinions of a group of people posting on one weather forum on the web matter more than those that work for the NWS. There is politics involved in public weather forecasting and that is why they are behind...they don't have the luxury that we do of saying "12''+" at this point. I thought I'd try out american wx forums but I'm shocked at the self-promotion and arrogance of some of the members on here. Feel free to delete this post or even ban me. I'm out. This is one forum of many and I think the majority of people here need to get over themselves. To those that value good conversation and appreciate weather for what it is, thank you. To those that ignore any other opinion beyond their own or their inner circle of friends, I'm sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 it's going to be really hard to get 1.5"+ qpf with an event moving this fast.. that's about what DCA got in snowmageddon .. of course there was more to the north but let's just keep these things in mind True, but not unheard of. Feb 87 as an example of a 9 hr. storm easily dumping 1.5 qpf as wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergeek Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I am expecting the 'go research' response, but thought I would ask, being a semi-newbie to the details of forecasting and map reading. But can you point me to or explain the 20mm, 38mm, etc.. details and how they impact the QPF or precip amounts? 38 mm = 1.5 inch = Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 1.1"???? Storm Fail. Winter Cancel. QPF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I'm sure leesburg will do better and somehow manchester or somewhere near there will become the new snow capital of the east. this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 No argument there for sure. It should average out but I would tend to agree with Ian about most of us maxing out between 1 inch QPF and maybe 1.1ish...tough to get those 1.5 totals. most big winter storms around here are less than 1.5" and many of them are around longer than this. i can pull out the dca numbers later if people want to peruse them. it seems there is plenty of reason to think we get near 1" in spots which would probably mean some convective bands push further than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 430 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011 VALID 00Z WED JAN 26 2011 - 00Z SAT JAN 29 2011 DAYS 1 AND 2... ...TN VLY/CNTRL APPALACHIANS TO CNTRL/NRN MID-ATLANTIC AND ERN NEW ENGLAND... THEN AROUND WED MIDDAY/WED AFTN... THE I95 CORRIDOR AROUND THE DC/BWI WILL BEGIN TO GET INVOLVED ON THE ACTION. THE UPPER LOW CENTER WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA PRODUCING ENOUGH COOLING ALOFT TO TRANSLATE DOWN TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER FOR RAIN CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW. THE INSTABILITY AND UVVS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING DEFORMATION ZONE/COMMA-HEAD WILL BE OFF THE CHARTS... POSSIBLY ALLOWING A CONVECTIVE ASPECT TO BECOME INVOLVED. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE IN INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS THE DC/BWI AREA FROM LATE TMRW AFTN TO VERY EARLY THURS MORNING BEFORE THE ENTIRE PHASING SYSTEM MOVES RAPIDLY UP THE COAST. THUS FOR THURS... A QUICK SIDE-SWIPE OF MDT TO HVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED UP I95 THROUGH PHL... NYC AND BOS. HPC WENT WITH 4 TO 12 INCH HVY SNOW PROBS EACH DAY AND A GENERAL PREFERENCE TOWARD A ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET BLEND OVER THE NAM/GFS ON MASS FIELDS... QPF AND THERMAL PROFILES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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