TUweathermanDD Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Looking at the H5 on the NAM, the run may have even had the potential to produce more QPF. Watch for 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I'm with the crowd that expects the axis of heaviest precip to come in somewhat north to northwest of where it's currenty progged. May not be too much of a shift, but it wouldn't all surprise me. I can't help but think someone from Northern/Central MD down through Loudoun/Prince WIlliam/maybe Fairfax will get a lolli of 12". EDIT: I posted this just before the NAM started to roll in. , I would like you to meet . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Very nice and strong omegas/UVV's from hr 24 -36 across LWX area... thundersnow possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 NAM - 24 hr precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I'd say some Pa folks are liking the new NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 this looks sweet for N and W with even a little elevation. I am psyched now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 too many weenies viewing the site crashed it Just make sure you get all the images that are posted backed up on multiple forms of portable media. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Can I get a lock-in of the 18z nam....please. Thanks, Frederick, MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 NAM is a shellacking After the storm, we need to start a thread to make a list (with attention paid to "level") of adjectives used for snow storms. If these models get much better today, we're going to run out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 the updated LWX disco should be interesting to read in the next few mins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Very nice and strong omegas/UVV's from hr 24 -36 across LWX area... thundersnow possible Sorry, Yoda. I had to do it. By the way...I agree with you. It wouldn't be a surprise at all to hear a report of a clap of thunder tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I'm still worried about the 6Z runs let's talk about them for a minute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Last year was so easy. The storms were fairly well advertised in the 3-5 day period and then all we had to do was wait to see if we were getting 6-10 or 12+ . This year we have been suckered in by the 3-5 day outlooks only to end up flat on our backs. It seems like forever that we had a storm look very marginal at 3-5 days away only to get much better as game time approached. This feels pretty good. Finally going to get some rewards for the hours of tracking. :snowman: MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 if the 18Z NAM looks the way it does, I can only imagine what the RGEM will look like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 its going to be interesting to see how the local mets explain this turn around forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I'm still worried about the 6Z runs let's talk about them for a minute Disastah. Game over for DC area. Would guess that LWX will upgrade with the evening update later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 if the 18Z NAM looks the way it does, I can only imagine what the RGEM will look like hopefully the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcwx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 its going to be interesting to see how the local mets explain this turn around forecast. First up, NBC 4. Can't wait to see what this guy has to say this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Disastah. Game over for DC area. Would guess that LWX will upgrade with the evening update later on. no, I mean last night's 6Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 come on NW baby!! (just a wee bit more) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I'm still worried about the 6Z runs let's talk about them for a minute Don't even start---- there will be another 6z run soon enough. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I'm trying hard to find a way to say the 18z NAM fringed me......I am at a loss for words right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...-- Changed Discussion --WITH THE FORECAST AND 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDING COLDER/SNOWIER... CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT TO IMPACT THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION ON WED. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FOR WED. IT WAS KNOWN THAT IT WOULDNT TAKE MUCH FOR THIS STORM TO BRING A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING HEAVY SNOW INSTEAD OF THE PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED RAIN/SNOW. ISENTROPIC LIFT INDUCED BY LLVL SELY FLOW AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIP TO THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE MRNG. BOUNDARY LAYER/SFC THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RA ACROSS LOWER SRN MD...AND A RA/SN MIX FROM I-95 NORTH AND WEST TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE MTS. FARTHER WEST...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE NOW SUPPORTS ALL SNOW DURING THE MRNG. DURING THIS TIME...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY AROUND 1-3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. FOR THIS REASON...THE WINTER STORM WATCH INCLUDES THE MRNG HRS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ALL 12Z GUIDANCE IS NOW INDICATING THE COASTAL LOW TAKING A CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE TRACK JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST FOR I-95 SNOWFALL. AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH...THE COMBINATION OF WINDS SHIFTING FROM NORTHEAST TO NORTH-NORTHWEST... AND COLUMN COOLING GENERATED FROM DEEP-LAYER ASCENT WILL CAUSE ANY RA/SN MIX TO CHANGE TO ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM NW TO SE DURING THE AFTN. BEST PD OF SNWFL WL BE DURING THE LT AFTN-EVNG HRS AS CWFA W/IN DEF ZN. TRACK OF SFC AND H8 LOW FVRBL FOR ACCUM SNWS...W/ DEEP UVV W/IN A MOIST COLUMN. SINCE CYCLONE WL HV MSTR FEED FM ATLC AND GLFMEX... QPF SHUD BE AMPLE. IF GDNC CONTS ON THE SAME PATH...MAY BE ABLE TO CONSIDER UPGRADE DECISIONS THIS EVNG...OTRW IT WL BE DONE OVNGT. SNW SHUD BE ENDING RATHER ABRUPTLY DURING THE EVNG HRS AS CSTL LOW PULLS NEWD. BACK EDGE MAY NOT CLR BALT-DC CRRDR TIL AFTR MIDNGT. TEMPS WL REMAIN BLO FRZG THRUT...AND TOOK BLEND FOR MIN-T. IN ADDITION...WNDS WL INCR OVNGT...G20KT PSBL...SPCLY IN THE ERN CWFA.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 First up, NBC 4. Can't wait to see what this guy has to say this time. Whatever it is, don't report back. No one cares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I'm beside myslef with joy. This is unbelievable. Plows will pile snow up EVERYWHERE! I'll be totally obsessed with jebwalks. Thank goodness this came THIS WEEK not last week - last week I was so sick I was bedridden for three days Folks might want to get out and enjoy the snow - No one has even mentioned the TORCH this weekend - highs near 50 both Saturday and Sunday with lows in the low 40s will melt that snow faster than you can say early spring in the Washington Metropolitan Region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I'm beside myslef with joy. This is unbelievable. Plows will pile snow up EVERYWHERE! I'll be totally obsessed with jebwalks. Thank goodness this came THIS WEEK not last week - last week I was so sick I was bedridden for three days So the famed Jebman shovel might be taken off mothballs finally this winter! Sorry to hear you were ill, but glad you're feeling better! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Chuck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Damn Yoda you are quick. He is a robot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timstobrazil Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I'm beside myslef with joy. This is unbelievable. Plows will pile snow up EVERYWHERE! I'll be totally obsessed with jebwalks. Thank goodness this came THIS WEEK not last week - last week I was so sick I was bedridden for three days Folks might want to get out and enjoy the snow - No one has even mentioned the TORCH this weekend - highs near 50 both Saturday and Sunday with lows in the low 40s will melt that snow faster than you can say early spring in the Washington Metropolitan Region what exactly is a jebwalk anyway? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 He is a robot. I think he has a sleeping bag on the floor in Sterling . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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