yoda Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemblep12036.gif 12z GFS ensemble mean at 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Sha-bam: copypasta from the blog (http://madusweather.com/?p=749): The map calls for a somewhat more northerly solution than what is currently shown on the models, with some heavy influence from the GFS/ECMWF solutions. This season’s trend of fully developing the coastal low and SN/+SN zone slower than expected has led me to think that the greatest snowfall totals in the coastal area will be further north and east than the 12z NAM shows. This area will also likely have better snowfall ratios than areas to the south, which will help towards breaking into the 8-12″ totals. Along the mountains, there is the potential for some good upslope along the eastern Apps in northern VA. The position may end up being off, but I’m fairly sure some part of the eastern slopes will get into the higher totals of 8-12″ as the onshore mid-level flow of moisture starts to push into the area and is aided by higher snowfall ratios. Very nice map, only complaint is i would have added a 6-10" area for areas just N & W of the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zgummy Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 it infuriates me every time i see it though -- well it's not as bad when im in the 6" contour that's the beauty of it always changing, if you don't like your color, you can just refresh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Did DT nail this storm or bust? I think he called rain for big cities most of the past week right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Very nice map, only complaint is i would have added a 6-10" area for areas just N & W of the cities. That map puts you in the 8-12" zone. And Ellinwood does not like contours that overlap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 That may not be total though. Sometimes they wait to put accumulations in for later periods. Touche, thought it said trace for Wed night snow, but doesn't have a figure for Wed night when the bulk hits... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Touche, thought it said trace for Wed night snow, but doesn't have a figure for Wed night when the bulk hits... Probably by this afternoon they will add some accumulations in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The GFS ensembles have gone totally ape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Sha-bam: copypasta from the blog (http://madusweather.com/?p=749): The map calls for a somewhat more northerly solution than what is currently shown on the models, with some heavy influence from the GFS/ECMWF solutions. This season’s trend of fully developing the coastal low and SN/+SN zone slower than expected has led me to think that the greatest snowfall totals in the coastal area will be further north and east than the 12z NAM shows. This area will also likely have better snowfall ratios than areas to the south, which will help towards breaking into the 8-12″ totals. Along the mountains, there is the potential for some good upslope along the eastern Apps in northern VA. The position may end up being off, but I’m fairly sure some part of the eastern slopes will get into the higher totals of 8-12″ as the onshore mid-level flow of moisture starts to push into the area and is aided by higher snowfall ratios. Good luck with your call. I put faith in it, mainly because you seem so level headed about snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostbite_falls Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 LWX 1:51pm update has me (N. Harford) with 3-5 during the day tomorrow (no forecast accum yet for tomorrow night)--this would be all before the real show starts, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 long range euro is vodka cold -28c near dc -24c to northern ga That's cool (pun intended), as long there is snow on the ground. I don't care how much, just enough to complete the picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 It seems like this storm is slowly narrowing down to a pretty on point consensus. The only discrepancy I'm seeing is the exact set up of heavy banding (other than the infamous temps, which have been killed to death already in this discussion). NWS seems to be siding with more of a NAM solution while the major models are pretty bullish about a bull's eye heading straight through and near the bigger cities. Anyone have thoughts on the north versus south banding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 LWX 1:51pm update has me (N. Harford) with 3-5 during the day tomorrow (no forecast accum yet for tomorrow night)--this would be all before the real show starts, right? The forecasts are starting to reflect the fact that we will possibly start as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 It seems like this storm is slowly narrowing down to a pretty on point consensus. The only discrepancy I'm seeing is the exact set up of heavy banding (other than the infamous temps, which have been killed to death already in this discussion). NWS seems to be siding with more of a NAM solution while the major models are pretty bullish about a bull's eye heading straight through and near the bigger cities. Anyone have thoughts on the north versus south banding? It will be north of where the models put it. I am very confident of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 It will be north of where the models put it. I am very confident of that. I'm beginning to think I'm in a good spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 top of the line clown maps here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 lol at the WRF clown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 lol at the clown maps, especially the second one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 lol at the WRF clown. The good part is you can divide by two and still get a good storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 It will be north of where the models put it. I am very confident of that. history says yes tho im not sure it will be as nw as some think given how consistent the models are with the 500 low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The clown maps remind me of a storm that happened 24 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregD Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I'm beginning to think I'm in a good spot don't be jinxing us, man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I have to say it's really nice to have the NAM/GFS/UKMET/SREF/EURO/GGEM/RGEM/Short Range models all agreeing about this and not having to be on the edge of your seat for every run up until gametime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 It seems to always be the case of the better qpf being modeled to our south (even last year) only to have the heaviest axis of snow from Westminster to FDK down to Loudon. The weenie in me says this will happen once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 When do the 15z SREFs come out?...very impatient here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 When do the 15z SREFs come out?...very impatient here Any moment now, weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 LWX expects to have their PM discussion out by 3:30pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Let's agree on one thing right now: NO RADIO SHOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Any moment now, weenie Shut it, darkie I wanted to see them before I go to the gym. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 LWX expects to have their PM discussion out by 3:30pm THE TREND FOR WEDNESDAYS STORM IS DEFINITELY COLDER. HAVEACCORDINGLY EXPANDED THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO INCLUDE THE REST OF THE CWA. A MORE DETAILED DISCUSSION WILL FOLLOW BY 330 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.