Ji Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 The doritos February mecs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 i move to retiring the idea.. this is the first time it's ever not killed a storm that i can remember. Shhh the storm has not happened yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The doritos February mecs Valentines Day storm brought to you by FTD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Yeoman in 3 2 1.. It was getting late for the monthly triple-phaser prediction.. that guy will always be the biggest tool on these boards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NattyBo Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 By the way, IIRC the discussion yesterday, today's 12z model suite was supposed to have new data from recon flights, FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Shhh the storm has not happened yet. it's all done but the waiting and pregame freakout tomorrow morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zgummy Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 LWX's computers still in the north-and-west camp.. http://www.erh.noaa....wx/winterstorm/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 wes post http://voices.washin..._heavy_wet.html Awesome. I love that DC has a 40% chance of a MECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 it's all done but the waiting and pregame freakout tomorrow morning And watching that unfold is almost the most fun part of the whole storm . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 long range euro is vodka cold -28c near dc -24c to northern ga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Jma shows a superstorm at 192 that phases a bit too early. Qpf colors that I have never seen before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 LWX's computers still in the north-and-west camp.. http://www.erh.noaa....wx/winterstorm/ they should decomission that map it's silly as a public product if it's different every time you look at it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 long range euro is vodka cold -28c near dc -24c to northern ga What about the early Feb threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 LWX's computers still in the north-and-west camp.. Wild, NWS just updated the 7-day forecase for 22201, Arlington, VA and says 1-3" ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 they should decomission that map it's silly as a public product if it's different every time you look at it It does say "experimental" so I guess that's the disclaimer lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Wild, NWS just updated the 7-day forecase for 22201, Arlington, VA and says 1-3" ... That may not be total though. Sometimes they wait to put accumulations in for later periods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 You couldn't read all of Ian's old standby's in that post? Sarcasm meter broken Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 GFS 12z ensemble plume info for DC and Baltimore: Nearly all snow. Big cluster of ensemble members near 1" total for the event, with probably 80-90% of that snow. Smaller cluster around 0.6". Outliers at about .25" and 1.4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 It does say "experimental" so I guess that's the disclaimer lol it infuriates me every time i see it though -- well it's not as bad when im in the 6" contour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 What about the early Feb threat? Looks too warm right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Sha-bam: copypasta from the blog (http://madusweather.com/?p=749): The map calls for a somewhat more northerly solution than what is currently shown on the models, with some heavy influence from the GFS/ECMWF solutions. This season’s trend of fully developing the coastal low and SN/+SN zone slower than expected has led me to think that the greatest snowfall totals in the coastal area will be further north and east than the 12z NAM shows. This area will also likely have better snowfall ratios than areas to the south, which will help towards breaking into the 8-12″ totals. Along the mountains, there is the potential for some good upslope along the eastern Apps in northern VA. The position may end up being off, but I’m fairly sure some part of the eastern slopes will get into the higher totals of 8-12″ as the onshore mid-level flow of moisture starts to push into the area and is aided by higher snowfall ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 they should decomission that map it's silly as a public product if it's different every time you look at it At least Sterling's tries to be up-to-date... better than Mt. Holly's which appears to be asleep at the wheel... Has almost no snow on Kent Island http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/StormTotalSnow/index.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Jma shows a superstorm at 192 that phases a bit too early. Qpf colors that I have never seen before man that map is wild 70mm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 long range euro is vodka cold -28c near dc -24c to northern ga I'll take sub-zero lows please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 My 420' of elevation ought to squeeeeze out a little extra juice. lol You're acting too much like that annoying weenie who calls himself Fozz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I'll take sub-zero lows please not gonna happen.. enjoy your snow instead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 they should decomission that map it's silly as a public product if it's different every time you look at it Talk about double standard. I got b****** at earlier today for saying pretty much that exact same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 long range euro is vodka cold -28c near dc -24c to northern ga Damn. Is that Day 10? Signs of a -NAO/AO out there? Or did the PV just decide to set up show over the Great Lakes? What's the word on the DT Facebook Storm #2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awkword1 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Eerily similar to what could happen tomorrow. Notice heavy snowfall rates can overcome extremely warm initial ground conditions in a hurry! 1987 The Veterans Day Snowstorm -- On the weekend preceding the storm, November 7th through the eighth, the region experienced beautiful 70 degree Fahrenheit weather. The snow began during the early morning of November 11th with a quick burst of snow that produced 1 to 2 inches across Washington. But snowfall quickly ended, leading many to believe the storm was over. For a few hours in the morning no snow fell and people headed off to work, school and shopping. A second low system quickly intensified. By noon, a very heavy, nearly stationary, band of snow had set up through the eastern half of the area. Localized within this band, snow fell at a whiteout rate of 3 to 4 inches per hour for several hours, accompanied by lightning and thunder. This was the earliest snowstorm ever to hit the Washington area. The 11.5 inches of snow that fell at National Airport easily broke an old November record of only 6.9 inches that fell on November 30, 1967. The next earliest date for a snowstorm of that magnitude occurred well into the month of December when 12 inches of snow fell on December 17, 1932. National Airport was in the heavy snow band that reached its maximum of 14 to 16 inches in western Prince George's County. Snowfall amounts were much less to the Northwest with Gaithersburg reporting only 3 to 4 inches of snow. Both Boston and Providence received 10 inches of snow early also setting new season records. On November 12th, a high temperature 48 degrees F allowed for a quick return to normal road conditions for the area. (p. 92-93 Washington Weather Book 2002 by Ambrose, Henry, Weiss) Veterans Day snowstorm-record 11.5 inches at DCA after a high of 72° on 9th---- A deepening low-pressure system brought heavy snow to the east central U.S. The Veteran's Day storm produced up to 17 inches of snow in the Washington D.C. area snarling traffic and closing schools and airports. Afternoon thunderstorms produced five inches of snow in three hours. Gale force winds lashed the Middle and Northern Atlantic Coast. Norfolk VA reported their earliest measurable snow in 99 years of records. (Ref. Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 It does say "experimental" so I guess that's the disclaimer lol There's no guessing that it is experimental and that such a disclaimer is appropriate. Kudos to them for turning it towards the public to increase the feedback potential and to reveal the user presentation part of the operational readiness testing so early in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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