2010 extreme Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 They have extended the watch further south and east based on the 12z guidance. Even st marys county is .That 850 0line is still extremly close for comfort on the models for many of us still. Weenies rejoice. Then please take it to the obs thread. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 109 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011 DCZ001-MDZ010-011-013-014-016>018-VAZ036>039-050>057-502-260215- /O.EXB.KLWX.WS.A.0002.110126T1900Z-110127T0900Z/ DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES- ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE- MADISON-ORANGE-CULPEPER-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK- FAIRFAX-ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA- KING GEORGE-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE... ANNAPOLIS...WALDORF...ST MARYS CITY...CHARLOTTESVILLE... CULPEPER...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA... FALLS CHURCH...FREDERICKSBURG 109 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...BECOMING ALL SNOW DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. * ACCUMULATIONS...5 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE. * TIMING...SNOW STARTING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. * TEMPERATURES...MID TO UPPER 30S WEDNESDAY...DROPPING TO THE LOWER 30S BY THE EVENING. THE UPPER 20S WEDNESDAY NIGHT. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH WEDNESDAY...BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH WEDNESDAY EVENING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. && $ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 850 line at 27 is just west of DCA... so maybe cut off .1 QPF... but damn 12 hr QPF from the HIRES ARW - STILL SNOWING AT 39 BTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 8-10pm could be some of the heaviest snow I've ever seen... .5"+ in 3hrs per both 39hr WRFs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 850 line at 27 is just west of DCA... so maybe cut off .1 QPF... but damn 12 hr QPF from the HIRES ARW The Hires WRFs are really, really close to all snow for DC and Baltimore. Probably is all snow for Baltimore with some snizzle/rasn for DC at the start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 qpf range from the models for back here seem to be a low of .58 on up to whatever the GGEM was spitting out. Sounds good...I think..I guess Man, you are unusually wet blanketish today. Ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 i love the hi res they are like a more ridiculous version of the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlYourWxPal Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I have seen this so many times before...watch the heaviest precipitation and snow end up being along and just SE of I 95 along the rain snow line. In these borderline events it always seems to happen this way. Maybe I am wrong, but this seems like one of these cases. That doesn't mean DC north and west won't see any snow though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 i love the hi res they are like a more ridiculous version of the nam They won't go past 39 hrs and show me more snowgoodiness... But yes.. I think its a bit overdone.. but they both show a powerful closed h5 low moving through SE VA at 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 It's Time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 i love the hi res they are like a more ridiculous version of the nam I know, fun, right!?! I've still got massive snowbanks from the 6" of WRF-snow they gave me with that wannabe Norlun trough a few weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I bet he is really worried about the QPF. Better ratios on top the mountain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 They won't go past 39 hrs and show me more snowgoodiness... But yes.. I think its a bit overdone.. but they both show a powerful closed h5 low moving through SE VA at 39 in this case they may have the idea right. with the speckles of really high qpf tho prob not 1.5"+. tough to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I have seen this so many times before...watch the heaviest precipitation and snow end up being along and just SE of I 95 along the rain snow line. In these borderline events it always seems to happen this way. Maybe I am wrong, but this seems like one of these cases. That doesn't mean DC north and west won't see any snow though! My memory tells me that the higher elevs of Moco, Fred, Loudon, etc seem to usually cash in on the QPF bullseye. Maybe I'm just thinking snowfall and not total precip. It's easy to ignore rain totals during the winter. My 420' of elevation ought to squeeeeze out a little extra juice. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Man, you are unusually wet blanketish today. Ugh You couldn't read all of Ian's old standby's in that post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 in this case they may have the idea right. with the speckles of really high qpf tho prob not 1.5"+. tough to say. It may be right in the sense its trying to pick up on thundersnow and snow rate areas... but who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 i love the hi res they are like a more ridiculous version of the nam and it's almost always wetter than the already often too wet nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Total QPF from HIRESW ARW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 TOTAL QPF from the HIRESW NMM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 if we had cashed in on Dec 26 event, we would be on our way to another huge winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlYourWxPal Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 My memory tells me that the higher elevs of Moco, Fred, Loudon, etc seem to usually cash in on the QPF bullseye. Maybe I'm just thinking snowfall and not total precip. It's easy to ignore rain totals during the winter. My 420' of elevation ought to squeeeeze out a little extra juice. lol Yes, they tend to be the favored climo areas. I am talking also on the rain snow line there can also be secondary maxes and someone along and east of I 95 might see just as much if temperatures can cool enough. Just a few thoughts that I have been thinking. Again, doesn't mean they are right haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg81988 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Yoda how much of that total is snow in ric? Are these models colder at surface? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 if we had cashed in on Dec 26 event, we would be on our way to another huge winter the feb mecs/hecs and march secs should still push us there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Anyone remember this fool? (the bolded name) AndyNJWx: just to warn you all, from NE VA, into C NJ and possibly northern Jersey, 18-25", with blizzard conditions, is on the way. Thats essentially right along i-95 corridor and to its south and east side. This is the biggest one yet this winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Anyone remember this fool? (the bolded name) u dont have to paste everything you copy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Maybe we should start naming storms or sell a sponsorship. It kinda worked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brianonymous Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I think the weirdest part of all of this, is I will forever remember this event as the PsuHoffman storm... 20 years from now, I will be like, "Remember the PsuHoffman event that dumped a foot on us?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Anyone remember this fool? (the bolded name) Yeoman in 3 2 1.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Maybe we should start naming storms or sell a sponsorship. It kinda worked I like that idea "This blizzard is brought to you by Charmin Toilet Paper and Wonder Bread" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowden Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Maybe we should start naming storms or sell a sponsorship. It kinda worked Here, we'll name the Feb HECS after you; the Ji-had storm of 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Maybe we should start naming storms or sell a sponsorship. It kinda worked i move to retiring the idea.. this is the first time it's ever not killed a storm that i can remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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