yoda Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Here's the links, rather than clutter the post with a bunch of data: KBWI - http://www.meteor.ia...am/nam_kbwi.dat KDCA - http://www.meteor.ia...am/nam_kdca.dat KIAD - http://www.meteor.ia...am/nam_kiad.dat I am not sure I quite agree with the random RASN in the middle of SNOW at DCA/IAD... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Deeeeep breath my man. You spend a great deal of time chastising other people. Very contradicting considering it's usually about what they are contributing to discussion. Let's all just be friends. It is actually my Woman not my man . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Thanks for the BUFKIT links! Of course it has ridiculous ratios of 11-16:1...10:1 will be generous tomorrow. But if I was making a forecast, it would be 6-10" for the big cities and areas within 30-40mi of I-95 and probably 4-8 or 3-6" for areas north and south of that stripe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCWeatherGuy Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I am not sure I quite agree with the random RASN in the middle of SNOW at DCA/IAD... By my count, we lose .31" of QPF to those two RASN thrown into the middle of the snow (at 2300Z Wednesday night and 100Z Thursday morning). At the rough ratios they're talking about, that's the difference between 7.8" of snow and 11.9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Thanks for the BUFKIT links! Of course it has ridiculous ratios of 11-16:1...10:1 will be generous tomorrow. But if I was making a forecast, it would be 6-10" for the big cities and areas within 30-40mi of I-95 and probably 4-8 or 3-6" for areas north and south of that stripe. Sounds excellent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biodhokie Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Man, GFS is terribly close to all snow in Roanoke-- a little mix in the front, even some ZR-- And, always has a mix here-- temps fall to 31 over night and we get a light mix-- there is a warm surge right before the ULL pulls in, but once its cranking, it cools fast. Which typically bodes well for blacksburg..except bufkit gives us graupel and a random RASN after the changeover. I'll take whatever dendrites we get i s'pose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 By my count, we lose .31" of QPF to those two RASN thrown into the middle of the snow (at 2300Z Wednesday night and 100Z Thursday morning). At the rough ratios they're talking about, that's the difference between 7.8" of snow and 11.2" I'd ignore those RASNs in the middle. The only dynamical reason I can think of for that is that with lighter precip rates, there's a chance for more melting of the flakes as they fall. Also ignore the snow to liquid ratios that BUFKIT produces. BUFKIT thinks that everyone lives downwind of Lake Erie and that all snow is wind-driven powder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Holy moly at the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Wow...GGEM has the same bullseye as the GFS somewhere out between Manassas, Front Royal and Leesburg. 1'+ for some lucky weenies out there? Haha...don't I just sound like JB now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 GGEM/RGEM always love going nuts over storms like this. They were wild last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I am not sure I quite agree with the random RASN in the middle of SNOW at DCA/IAD... It is normal for the numericals to do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Sorry guys...I'm not feeling it hopefully you're feeling it when you're getting 2"+/hr tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 MM5 for your area: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 And more coming: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 hopefully you're feeling it when you're getting 2"+/hr tomorrow This is one of those winters where the comfort zone doesn't arrive until the first flakes are falling...I love what the models are saying and I sure do hope they are close to being right. I'm a weenie for sure but I am trying to measure my weenie until the snow starts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 This map is embarrassing. Based on model guidance it's simply embarrassing. I doubt that they made that map by throwing darts at a board, don't you. They have access to all the "guidance" that you do, plus alot more knowledge to go with it. For you to say that it is embarrassing is just a tad arrogant on your part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 MM5 for your area: ] Based on the Nam this is not a surprise. Throw it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 That thing is a running joke. It is auto-generated. I didn't know that. Thanks. Still, it has to be based on something. It still is probably more relevant than weenie wishcast maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 36hr GGEM panel might be worth saving for future reference...this is how you want things to look for a big snowstorm in DC and Baltimore: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 snow contest: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/10884-snowfall-contest/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 36hr GGEM panel might be worth saving for future reference...this is how you want things to look for a big snowstorm in DC and Baltimore: Where on those map can I tell temps? I know a weenie question, but I'd like to know for further references Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I think GGEM actually has more precip for our area than the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Some of the QPF may be liquid before temps aloft crash, but the signal for a quick dumping is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 More to come between 36 and 48 hrs on GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Where on those map can I tell temps? I know a weenie question, but I'd like to know for further references You can't unfortunately. Only heights and thicknesses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Curlyq Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I find this very interesting as the TV mets predicted 6-10 in previous storms this past winter and we got nothing to a trace. Now, this morning (around 5am) they were saying mainly a rain event for DC and points south and east which could now give us more accumulating snow in these areas. I can only imagine what this does to state and local municipalites trying to plans at this LATE stage of the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 You can't unfortunately. Only heights and thicknesses. this link will tell you hour-by-hour precip types and intensity for GGEM; it updates slowly http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Some of the QPF may be liquid before temps aloft crash, but the signal for a quick dumping is there. According to this... http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html it looks like maybe <5mm of liquid before changeover. Then 6-8hrs of crazy heavy snow. Verbatim with 10:1 ratios, this shows a band of 2-3"/hour snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 According to this... http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html it looks like maybe <5mm of liquid before changeover. Then 6-8hrs of crazy heavy snow. Verbatim with 10:1 ratios, this shows a band of 2-3"/hour snows. Do you think 10:1 is realistic though? Or will it start as like 7:1 or 8:1 then become higher as it gets colder (but probably not as heavy precip then)...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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