ravensrule Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 prepare for the heaviest falling snow of your life.. it always is when it's heavy , this is the one thing in my life i love heavy . After the agony of the past month and a half this is going to feel great watching fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg81988 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Shouldn't we trust nam more now as it is short range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Time to go all out my friend. That's all IN Randy. That sums up my knowledge of Texas hold-em. Needless to say at this point, but I kinda like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Since I'm a newbie. Any early predictions for the Eldersburg area. Are we gonna see a foot. Please read up on the Storm Mode post - http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/forum-20/announcement-10-storm-mode-members-please-read/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Looks like about .75" falls as snow. 6-12" for DC/Baltimore sounds like a good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I'm really not sure what to think. Pretty much all the models look great- both on temp when precip falls and on the precip itself. The setup is mostly there with a few exceptions.... But LWX hasn't put me under a watch yet!!! (just kidding) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Big signal from the GFS that the NAM and Euro are right with the heavier precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Looks like dynamics flip you over to a wet snow bomb. Ian may be taking more pics naked, of the DC landscape. banding looks great down that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I am going to guess that the 850 0c line goes east of DCA around hr 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Looks like dynamics flip you over to a wet snow bomb. Ian may be taking more pics naked, of the DC landscape. banding looks great down that way. Thanks BTW, do you have any of those fronto maps or whatever they are called for convection and the such? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dynasty Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 is it still looking like any rain or is the rain being pushed out of the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Looks like dynamics flip you over to a wet snow bomb. Ian may be taking more pics naked, of the DC landscape. banding looks great down that way. im planning a shoot with a friend so i'll probably keep my clothes on this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 At 18z tomorrow, soundings look very close to all snow for everyone. The warm layer is between 800-900mb. DCA looks like it will be rain with temps probably +1-2C in that range and about +2C at the surface. IAD's peak temp looks to be about +1C around 800mb and then +1C at the surface. That's probably a mix...depending on precip rates. BWI is coldest of all...fractionally above freezing around 825mb, but dewpoint stays at/below freezing. Surface about +1C. That's probably a snow sounding. By 0z Thursday, soundings for everyone are all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 At 18z tomorrow, soundings look very close to all snow for everyone. The warm layer is between 800-900mb. DCA looks like it will be rain with temps probably +1-2C in that range and about +2C at the surface. IAD's peak temp looks to be about +1C around 800mb and then +1C at the surface. That's probably a mix...depending on precip rates. BWI is coldest of all...fractionally above freezing around 825mb, but dewpoint stays at/below freezing. Surface about +1C. That's probably a snow sounding. By 0z Thursday, soundings for everyone are all snow. Agree... looks like the changeover will be around 3 PM IAD... 5 PM or so DCA/BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Latest GFS seems to bring a bit more precip out west into the valley. That's encouraging! If true, our sligtly cooler temps could get us a healthy accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 is it still looking like any rain or is the rain being pushed out of the way Plz read the threads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 im planning a shoot with a friend so i'll probably keep my clothes on this time Not with those baseball dendrites falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Latest GFS seems to bring a bit more precip out west into the valley. That's encouraging! If true, our sligtly cooler temps could get us a healthy accumulation. i think the nam is advertising too small a precip area. the globals are probably more accurate with that though i'd lean toward the nam's convective signature. so just add all the good from the various models and enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Agree... looks like the changeover will be around 3 PM IAD... 5 PM or so DCA/BWI If BWI is the coldest of all how is their changeover 2 hours after IAD?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 LWX updated their snow map. I want to know where they are pulling this information from? http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winterstorm/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Not with those baseball dendrites falling. i love you even though you guys stole all our snow so far this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Thanks BTW, do you have any of those fronto maps or whatever they are called for convection and the such? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 At 18z tomorrow, soundings look very close to all snow for everyone. The warm layer is between 800-900mb. DCA looks like it will be rain with temps probably +1-2C in that range and about +2C at the surface. IAD's peak temp looks to be about +1C around 800mb and then +1C at the surface. That's probably a mix...depending on precip rates. BWI is coldest of all...fractionally above freezing around 825mb, but dewpoint stays at/below freezing. Surface about +1C. That's probably a snow sounding. By 0z Thursday, soundings for everyone are all snow. its almost over by then with only .16" falling at BWI after 0Z Thursday these kinds of situations are crazy because the insane rates and UVV's will mix enough to make it colder than what the models now show (providing the UVV's are there) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 per LWX updated AFD AFTER A LOOKAT THE 12Z GUIDANCE...WILL MAKE HEADLINE ADJUSTMENTS IF NECESSARY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Wow...WRF soundings are even colder...all snow for the 3 airports by 18z tomorrow. UKMET soundings are the warmest...all rain at 18z...but what the hell does the Ukie know about snow in the Mid-Atlantic? Let's toss it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Wow...WRF soundings are even colder...all snow for the 3 airports by 18z tomorrow. UKMET soundings are the warmest...all rain at 18z...but what the hell does the Ukie now about snow in the Mid-Atlantic? Let's toss it... this one is ours.. if the signs are bad they are wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 i think the nam is advertising too small a precip area. the globals are probably more accurate with that though i'd lean toward the nam's convective signature. so just add all the good from the various models and enjoy. Yup, and the best depiction in precip field so far is the RGEM-- that keeps the heavy snow going longer past sundown than the GFS does. There has been a pretty substantial difference between the GFS and NAM/RGEM on when the heavy precip cuts off starting from the runs last evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 i love you even though you guys stole all our snow so far this winter Hey I showed you guys plenty of love last year. This should be a nice event for you guys. Just gotta get the euro to lock it up.It actually looks great for my hood as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 This is looking more and more like a mostly or all snow storm for most. The big rain before snow idea is dead/dying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 its almost over by then with only .16" falling at BWI after 0Z Thursday these kinds of situations are crazy because the insane rates and UVV's will mix enough to make it colder than what the models now show (providing the UVV's are there) Tomorrow afternoon looks like a serious whooping...heavy big fat wet conglomerate flakes coming down at a serious pace. Visibility is going to be really low in some of these bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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