Grothar of Herndon Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Not five-posted. To say that I am "unbelievably lazy" just because I can't go back through 37 pages of a thread to see if anyone answered my question is unfair. Not all people can live on this board 24/7. I am not going to engage in bashing people and I never have, so I will say no more. Also, I was actually online last night when Wes posted the above statement and I read it then. It does not answer my question though. Wes' statement is his opinion on this particular storm and though he may be correct, my question was more general. My recollection is that ULLs seem to track further north than modeled even a few hours prior to the event, and I wondered if anyone else thought this or had evidence backing it up. Latest NAM run has you in the sweet spot. I think that has been the case the past 24 hours and is holding. GFS up next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 JI why don't you start a new thread before the 12Z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Looks like 20mm+ for BWI and DCA, maybe slightly less for IAD. Agree, now that I have looked at it a bit closer RGEM is a crushing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Where would I go to read his blog ? Capital weather gang at the Washington Post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 yes it is more so than any other model as far as showing pure snow over a very large area there you are! I was wondering what you would think of the RGEM. It looks very nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 last thread probably before the OBS thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dynasty Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 can u post the RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Yes it is. The nam looks like it gives us convection. I'm writing a bullish blog. lol. Famous last words. You must have liked the look of that 1.5"+ bullseye over your house on the NAM, Wes We got your back if you bust LWX must be thinking precip stays more rain to the south...that's the only thing I can see that would keep the WSWs up well north/west of the I-95 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 can u post the RGEM It was a few pages back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Capital weather gang at the Washington Post. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Weenies, now that you are under a winter storm watch, how has that changed your life at all. regards, Ji Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Wes, not waiting for the GFS? Bullish indeed. Shame I'm on the eastern shore... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 that was quick service edit: boo I don't usually quibble about their watch issuance, but this was kind of odd. Oh well, doesn't matter. SNOW baby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 For Montgomery County, Gaithersburg is under the Watch but not Rockville. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/10847-huffing-and-puffing-to-the-finish-line-the-psuhoffman-storm/ http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/10847-huffing-and-puffing-to-the-finish-line-the-psuhoffman-storm/ http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/10847-huffing-and-puffing-to-the-finish-line-the-psuhoffman-storm/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Yes it is. The nam looks like it gives us convection. I'm writing a bullish blog. lol. Famous last words. I'm all in now. Wes is excited. What time should I pick you up at the bus stop? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Colonel Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I still can't 100% buy in until the GFS comes in...one way or the other. I'm looking for it to atleast hold serve.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 ITT: Adults. It's about that time of the day! (12z GFS ) Let's see if it can crush some hopes and dreams... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Does nayone have the potential to show the grid scale versus convective precipitation? It looks to me like the convective scheme might be kicking it with the slight drying that is showing up above 700mb. I'd be interested if any mets in the NWS have such a produce. I know HPC does but doubt they are reading the forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lester Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 GFS out in a few? GFS out to 12 on raleigh's site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joc111 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I'm not believing anything until I see the stuff on the ground. Been burned badly with every storm this year. We've all seen how poorly the models have performed, even within 24 hours of onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Congrats to Trix for her WSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I want to see more agreement. there has been tons of agreement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I don't know what happened to NCEPs website last week, but it still has some major gremlins in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joecacti Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I saw some flurries in Locust Point this morning. Still kind of cold out there, BWI still at 32 at 10 AM, and a cloud deck overhead. Long time lurker, first time caller (although I did post a few times over at easternwx, mostly bird observations. I use a bird model to predict the weather). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 this is probably the run the gfs goes ots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 that massive blob of moisture over the southeast sure looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 lol either that or mecs.. sorry im sorta giddy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 either that or mecs.. sorry im sorta giddy. Looks OTS and warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Precip max with the ULL looks much juicier through 24hr compared to the 30hr on 6z. Low off the coast is ~4mb deeper also vs 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Considering far western burbs have been fringed this morning, do you guys think the wsw is a little ambitious out here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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