Dcwx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 This wont be the HECS of 96,03,2010,83 but i think it will fall into the same category as Jan 25,2000 and the 1987 storm. The fact that nobody is prepared for this storm is what is going to make it interesting around these parts. Should I tell my boss in Richmond to expect snow on my 10 AM call? Haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 just like the 6z NAM with the low totals, when the 18z NAM shows 2.13 of QPF and 18-24 inches, dont buy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 and unlike the Feb 2006 storm, I dont think the snow will melt by lunchtime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 wow at these 3 hourly precip maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 just like the 6z NAM with the low totals, when the 18z NAM shows 2.13 of QPF and 18-24 inches, dont buy it. Ashburn looks like a good spot for this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Ashburn looks like a good spot for this storm IAD will do better than us. Plane trip from JYO to IAD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Jump back to the north at 12z on the NAM. Good. I'd like another jump NW in the next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Doesn't the NAM tend to be wetter than most models? I feel like we may need to tone done the accum projections until the 12z Euro/GFS verify. Not saying it's impossible, I mean 0z guidance was showing this too, but the way this winter has gone I need to be ABSOLUTELY POSITIVE lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Hey could someone explain the implications for a northward trend on the bull's eye? Many of you seemed pretty adamant that the bull's eye would shift up towards leesburg. More snow for places not currently in the bullseye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Id like to create the final PSUHoffman thread when the time comes to finish what was started. Let me know when that time is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Midlo on those 3 hr maps you are missing hr 39... you go 33-36-42-45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 agreed but u know i worry until that band is over me and its +sn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Doesn't the NAM tend to be wetter than most models? I feel like we may need to tone done the accum projections until the 12z Euro/GFS verify. Not saying it's impossible, I mean 0z guidance was showing this too, but the way this winter has gone I need to be ABSOLUTELY POSITIVE lol The Euro has been wet consistently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Doesn't the NAM tend to be wetter than most models? I feel like we may need to tone done the accum projections until the 12z Euro/GFS verify. Not saying it's impossible, I mean 0z guidance was showing this too, but the way this winter has gone I need to be ABSOLUTELY POSITIVE lol please read through this thread from last night, check out the red taggers thoughts, take a glance at the consistency of the Euro with qpf in terms of amounts, and draw your own conclusions. There is nothing anyone can say that will make it snow, or that can assure you it will snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 More snow for places not currently in the bullseye Yes I was able to draw that conclusion myself...was wondering if someone more informed than I could explain why people are confident in this eventual Nward trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 IAD will do better than us. Plane trip from JYO to IAD? DCA 1.17 IAD 0.78 JYO 0.58 All snow for each I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Actually the Euro is due for a burp and it sucks in the short range. We might see a snow hole at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 brb halving the QPF from NAM bringing some reality back into the situation... still a good 6-12" estimate, which has already been thrown around a couple of times by others. My new map will have to include the 8-12 contour for a select area or two! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcwx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Doesn't the NAM tend to be wetter than most models? I feel like we may need to tone done the accum projections until the 12z Euro/GFS verify. Not saying it's impossible, I mean 0z guidance was showing this too, but the way this winter has gone I need to be ABSOLUTELY POSITIVE lol Usually, but the Euro has actually had the most juice this storm and it is not known as being particularly wet. 00z had pretty good agreement on a high precip event and hopefully 12z will hold. Regardless, this is the NAMs money range and seeing as its been pretty good this year, you have to be encouraged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 cant wait to watch all the weenies cry when the 18z suite comes in south again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I'm sorry, but can we talk about the 6Z NAM for a bit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Yes I was able to draw that conclusion myself...was wondering if someone more informed than I could explain why people are confident in this eventual Nward trend Oh, you wanted to know why it would come north, not what happens when it does.... sorry you didn't ask it that way. From my experience and I am no met, these things tend to trend north as it gets closer. But yes, perhaps someone else, say Ian or Wes can explain why that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Id like to create the final PSUHoffman thread when the time comes to finish what was started. Let me know when that time is Looks like we'll have time for another 50-pages before the final one gets put up... you'll get two! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Id like to create the final PSUHoffman thread when the time comes to finish what was started. Let me know when that time is just start it here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 RGEM incoming in a few.. its out to 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Usually, but the Euro has actually had the most juice this storm and it is not known as being particularly wet. 00z had pretty good agreement on a high precip event and hopefully 12z will hold. Regardless, this is the NAMs money range and seeing as its been pretty good this year, you have to be encouraged. The short-range NAM low track has done well, but the trailing QPF (NW/W of the low) has been overdone in many cases this season (by a considerable amount in some areas), so these high QPF results have to be scrutinized a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 DCA 1.17 IAD 0.78 JYO 0.58 All snow for each I think EURO doubled that for IAD/JYO. I think we will be fine and in the end..have the most snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Oh, you wanted to know why it would come north, not what happens when it does.... sorry you didn't ask it that way. From my experience and I am no met, these things tend to trend north as it gets closer. But yes, perhaps someone else, say Ian or Wes can explain why that happens. there's usually a drift.. im not exactly sure why. without the uber block in an optimal position and given the more progressive nature it seems it would want to try to lift north a tad. this has been fairly locked in so it might not be much or at all. i was nervous it was a little too good last night so im personally happy to see it back south a bit for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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