Ji Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 That looks all Euro. Sounds like HPC tossed the 6z solutions. It's seems like they have all been burps only to get corrected in next run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 That looks all Euro. Sounds like HPC tossed the 6z solutions. That's because the euro verifies best and the track of the 500h looks so good on all the models. it was issued prior to the 06Z guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 It's seems like they have all been burps only to get corrected in next run Stormtracker said it best at 3:23 a.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 That's because the euro verifies best and the track of the 500h looks so good on all the models. it was issued prior to the 06Z guidance. Indeed they were issued before 06z - in fact Fozz posted the exact maps at 230 this morning, two pages ago. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/10601-psuhoffman-storm-the-pre-reckoning/page__st__680 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 You guys are going way to high with accumaltions.. Remember the ground and roads are going to be warm and wet from the rain. It will take awhile to start accumulate also with temps marginal.... Absolutely. Especially since the temps have yet to climb higher than 20's since early Saturday. The ground will be nice and toasty for the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 That's because the euro verifies best and the track of the 500h looks so good on all the models. it was issued prior to the 06Z guidance. Euro has had us in the 1.4-1.7 qpf the past 6 or so runs. No reason to think it will be wrong. 6z Gfs on Christmas day gave us 8--15 only to give us 1-2 inches at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 That's because the euro verifies best and the track of the 500h looks so good on all the models. it was issued prior to the 06Z guidance. I'm liking your take on the big picture, Wes. There's every reason to believe that he ULL is going to thump this area pretty good. Details will only come to light nearly as the event unfolds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Euro has had us in the 1.4-1.7 qpf the past 6 or so runs. No reason to think it will be wrong. 6z Gfs on Christmas day gave us 8--15 only to give us 1-2 inches at 12z careful (I know I'm wasting my time here JI!) HPC went gung-ho on the 1st storm after Christmas and they busted (recall even Wes didn't agree with them-in so many words) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Those maps were made before the 6z runs, if I can read the time stamp properly. Says they were made at 932z. NAM was definitely available by then. Not sure if they had any of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Says they were made at 932z. NAM was definitely available by then. Not sure if they had any of the GFS. They usually get a peak and them and could make a change if they really felt strongly about it. More often then not, they won't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Says they were made at 932z. NAM was definitely available by then. Not sure if they had any of the GFS. That was the QPF map by HPC, not the snowfall percentage maps. Unless that is what you guys were discussing of course... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 careful (I know I'm wasting my time here JI!) HPC went gung-ho on the 1st storm after Christmas and they busted (recall even Wes didn't agree with them-in so many words) Look. The only time I buy an off run(6z or 18z) is when it gives me more snow. Otherwise I punt them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamHLG Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Sometimes I think that people here think that LWX actually determines whether a storm will occur based on whether they issue a watch. It's as if LWX is controlling what will happen. Guess what? The quality posters and commenters on this Board have just as good a probability of being correct as LWX. This Board already issued a Watch if you just read the trends of the comments. That's better news to be than whatever LWX decides to issue. Just my $.02. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Look. The only time I buy an off run(6z or 18z) is when it gives me more snow. Otherwise I punt them well, Sunday night is proof of that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Symblized Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Check out the individual SREF members from earlier this morning. Lots of spread on QPF. The best run (ARW2) gives 1.75-2 in to DC area SE and 1.5-1.75 to the rest of the B/W metros, while the worst (ETA3) gives .1-.25 to the northern parts of MD's northernmost counties and .25-.5 most everywhere else in the B/W metro areas. Despite the near-unified consensus on 0z, this morning's runs should show folks that there are still some track and QPF uncertainties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 That's still an impressive mean on the sref. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Symblized Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 That's still an impressive mean on the sref. No doubt (albeit a bit lower than the 0z suite). I just wanted to show the spread, too. There's been a some discussion about the importance of not overlooking it, and the 0z suite to my relative newbie eyes looked quite unified in its guidance, while at least the individual members of the SREF show some variance. Haven't peeked at the GFS Ensembles from last night yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 No doubt (albeit a bit lower than the 0z suite). I just wanted to show the spread, too. There's been a some discussion about the importance of not overlooking it. is this the 9z sref or 3z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I do not know how data is assimilated on the SREF for initialization, so should we view the SREF as follow-up support for the previous runs, or preview of the next? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dynasty Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Hey im new to this sight but have been watching the discussion the last couple days.... i live in the central part of delaware wondering if any one had an idea what was going to happen in those parts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Sometimes I think that people here think that LWX actually determines whether a storm will occur based on whether they issue a watch. It's as if LWX is controlling what will happen. Guess what? The quality posters and commenters on this Board have just as good a probability of being correct as LWX. This Board already issued a Watch if you just read the trends of the comments. That's better news to be than whatever LWX decides to issue. Just my $.02. Yes, but most people are not on this board. Don't they have a right to know something other than a rain storm may be coming? But your right, it really doesn't matter at this stage what LWX does. But I have not been overly impressed with some of their decisions this year. Last year, they were great and always a step ahead, IMO. This year, they have issued several watches that seemed way premature and based on overly optomistic snowfall estimates -- none of which verified. And when there was a serious situation -- the ice storm two weeks ago - they didn't issue a warning until almost 11 p.m. four hours after it began and after most people went to bed. But I accept your overall point, and will give up my mini-crusade for a watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Symblized Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 is this the 9z sref or 3z? 3z. Sorry, should've noted, looking at my clock right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 I do not know how data is assimilated on the SREF for initialization, so should we view the SREF as follow-up support for the previous runs, or preview of the next? dude..can you believe we have been talking about the psuhoffman storm since Jan 17. 8 days and counting. Only a fool would think models are bad. The fact that this storm has been on the radar this long is a testament to models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Hey im new to this sight but have been watching the discussion the last couple days.... i live in the central part of delaware wondering if any one had an idea what was going to happen in those parts The last couple of days seem to have had a string of first-posters trickle in and ask IMBY questions... Don't know why the Storm Mode link is still not working despite people bringing it up yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timstobrazil Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 http://www.weather.gov/ WSW staring to go up in SWVA and the NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 SREF just came out, they trended south from 3z but not nearly as much as 6z NAM/GFS did. .5 gets back to about HGR to York, they look great for the nw suburbs of DC and Baltimore...not so much up my way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 SREF just came out, they trended south from 3z but not nearly as much as 6z NAM/GFS did. .5 gets back to about HGR to York, they look great for the nw suburbs of DC and Baltimore...not so much up my way. this is actually good news because all winter long in the last 24 hours, there have been north trends and will probably be another north trend at 00z based on what we have seen this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Hey im new to this sight but have been watching the discussion the last couple days.... i live in the central part of delaware wondering if any one had an idea what was going to happen in those parts Hi! Welcome to the board. Your local NWS office should have a discussion that will give you some better insight on what to expect for your area. Also, please continue reading through the threads... I'm sure there is plenty of information to answer your question. I personally do not know your area well, so I cannot answer your question directly... but hopefully I have pointed you in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I wish sometime people would do their own analysis than taking everything LWX says at face-value. HOw about reading HPC map of 70 percent chance of more than 4 inches, or every model in 00z suite that showed the area approaching double digit accumulations -- after the rain. I am not saying that is going to verify, but don't sit here and act like you are the only one who reads. You were the one complaining about LWX having not issued a WSW. Mapgirl was simply pointing out that LWX explains why in their very own discussion. I would expect that they will start to issue watches for **SOME** parts of the area later this afternoon. You just need to chill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Hey im new to this sight but have been watching the discussion the last couple days.... i live in the central part of delaware wondering if any one had an idea what was going to happen in those parts If you've read the thread, you'd see nobody has a good idea of what will happen anywhere yet. It could be heavy precip or just moderate; it could rain or could snow.... Way too early for those kinds of questions, weather channel is what you should look at lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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