Chase Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 SHD on the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Even low end threats had 2-4" with crappy ratios--I don't know where they got all rain from. The changeover threat has been on the table for days. These TV folks are pathetic. at the surface the backend idea gained a lot of traction by later yesterday. in the end it's one of those things you gotta trust the 500 maps on i guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 no. huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Even low end threats had 2-4" with crappy ratios--I don't know where they got all rain from. The changeover threat has been on the table for days. These TV folks are pathetic. so-called "tv mets" are always playing the politics game, ESPECIALLY in DCA. Snow is a bad word there. They got school districts to make decisions on and snow removal costs money in an already severely strained recessionary economy. They only mention a snow threat when the models and reality twists their arm in a 720 movement and they are forced to admit that it will snow. That's the utterly agonizing pose they shall find themselves contorted into come tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I think it was Tasslemeyer in Baltimore. I used to live there, he's pretty good so that would make sense he caught on. He was the one who went all in Feb. 6 for like 20 to 30 inches hours and hours or days before any else. Will be interesting how they handle it. I assume a lot will depend on what the morning runs show and if they hold. And, frankly, there is no way they are going to go on the air talking about a possible foot storm for fear of bust. My guess is they, as well as LWX, start preparing people for a possible 3 to 6 or 4 to 8 inch storm and see if it needs to be upped later in the day before the 6 p.m. news Tasselmyer's 3-6" call was before the 0z runs, and he said that he'll have to keep revising them based on new info, so he definitely knows what he is doing and I think he will raise those totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 the ukmet crushes us with big qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 What surprised me was not even a mention for accumulating snows in the western suburbs which are less certain to mix. The NBC 4 guy said "maybe Northern Montgomery county for some accumulating snow". He also said we had no chance of accumulating snow because the ground would be too wet from the rain. I am not sure where he got his "BS" degree in meteorology from... Well I was going lowest end if the wave stayed farther SE with crappy ratios and some melting early on--which would have yielded a potential 2-4 or 3-5" depending on location going off 12/18Z data. That looks like it will be low by a decent amount with the latest NW tick on the positioning of the upper low--but saying it would be too wet for any snow is silly unless it came down at 1/4" snow per hour. Hard to say what some were thinking--I still think some may have been using critical thicknesses and MOS too much--as well as old data from a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 so-called "tv mets" are always playing the politics game, ESPECIALLY in DCA. Snow is a bad word there. They got school districts to make decisions on and snow removal costs money in an already severely strained recessionary economy. They only mention a snow threat when the models and reality twists their arm in a 720 movement and they are forced to admit that it will snow. That's the utterly agonizing pose they shall find themselves contorted into come tomorrow night. This is only partially true. TV casters play no role in VDOT operations. In fact, VDOT uses a private wx corporation as well as NWS for decision making. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Well I was going lowest end if the wave stayed farther SE with crappy ratios and some melting early on--which would have yielded a potential 2-4 or 3-5" depending on location going off 12/18Z data. That looks like it will be low by a decent amount with the latest NW tick on the positioning of the upper low--but saying it would be too wet for any snow is silly unless it came down at 1/4" snow per hour. Hard to say what some were thinking--I still think some may have been using critical thicknesses and MOS too much--as well as old data from a few days ago. I think a lot take their cues from LWX as well, and they also were downplaying this event all day. They also are going to have to do a big 1-80 by at least putting up some watches in a few hours. LWX will then still have to evening to decide on who, if anyone, should get a warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I caught the very end of the 11pm news on WJLA-7 and Doug Hill said there was new information and he would have to revise his forecast and accumulating snow was possible after rain. That was all he said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 To put in in perspective, this is what Capital Weather was thinking at 12 PM yesterday: Next accumulating snow chance: Late Tues. night-Wed. night Probability of more than 1" of snow: 40-45% Probability of more than 4": 15-20% http://voices.washin...ignfi.html#more What an amazing difference 12 hours can make. It feels like January 25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Nice new snow maps from the HPC, even 10% probability of 12 inches or greater along the 40% of 8 inch+ area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Whoever is inside the green zone is in the red zone for 4"+ of snow, meaning 70%+, and DC is on the red line. To put in in perspective, this is what Capital Weather was thinking at 12 PM yesterday: Next accumulating snow chance: Late Tues. night-Wed. night Probability of more than 1" of snow: 40-45% Probability of more than 4": 15-20% http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2011/01/near_rain-snow_line_for_signfi.html#more whoa. whoa. 1st whoa was because of that map 2nd whoa is because my ass is STILL up at 3 am and I have to go to work in 5 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capitalweather Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 We weren't actually that far off from HPC. The blue zone is what our 15-20% probability of 4" or more applied to (I realize that's now 8"). Whoever is inside the green zone is in the red zone for 4"+ of snow, meaning 70%+, and DC is on the red line. To put in in perspective, this is what Capital Weather was thinking at 12 PM yesterday: Next accumulating snow chance: Late Tues. night-Wed. night Probability of more than 1" of snow: 40-45% Probability of more than 4": 15-20% http://voices.washin...ignfi.html#more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 One would hope they have been paying attention. The 0Z suite was not even close to the first to suggest a threat. Honestly the TV weathercasters who still have all rain should be fired. This....seriously, people have been talking about the potential for DAYS now (even when some of the deterministic model runs were either a bit east or warm....there was plenty of evidence to pay attention). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Fwi, the lady on CBS, in fo Topper noted 6-8 Inghes of snow was possible area wide according to one model. She also said another model showed basically nothing...no clue as to what that could have been? Sref's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The 6z NAM seems drier through 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Nam is not very good, but that doesn't surprise me. Nam does like these wacky runs now and again particularly in an off hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The 6z NAM seems drier through 36. 500 seems a bit different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Throw it out Looks like a NAM junk run. The upper level PV max looks nothing like any other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 the newbs and weenies will freak out over the 6z NAM. Vets, you know the drill...stay steady Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 NAM just had a hiccup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 the newbs and weenies will freak out over the 6z NAM. Vets, you know the drill...stay steady its an off hour run of a model with tendencies to have a fluke run. Were ok, I would be much more nervous if it suddenly shifted way north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Well, it's a lovely run for Richmond, much like the 6z GFS on Christmas was a lovely run for Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Doesn't the 6z nam have a strong bias SE compared to its other suites? Just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 ..... LOL! Don't believe it. Not much to add really. Besides making the typical xx comments about off runs etc.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Doesn't the 6z nam have a strong bias SE compared to its other suites? Just curious. I do know the NAM did this about 36 hours before the December 19th storm last winter for one run and I think it was the 6z also. Pretty much all guidance is aligned now, SREFS, RGEM, GFS, EC, UKMET, 0z NAM, NOGAPS... versus 6z NAM oh and the new 3z SREFS look the same as the 21z and do not hint as something like the NAM. Its a fluke run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Based on zones - no watches were hoisted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Just read lwx disco. Seems to me they dont think too much of the impending storm. After all I read tonight on this board, it was really a let down. And isn't Woody from lwx one of the better forecasters? Hmm. Maybe they're right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Eh, 6z GFS drier but colder thru 42, maybe 10-20 miles further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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