PhineasC Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 seasonal pattern ftw.. rainstorm buried http://www.nco.ncep....fs_pcp_192m.gif Looks like the December 26th storm. Congrats to everyone but us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I knew this year would be bad, I just wasn't expecting evil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I could see psuhoffman delivering a post-mortem with the phrases "the atmosphere didn't behave as it was supposed to" and "right for the wrong reasons" appearing throughout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 seasonal pattern ftw.. rainstorm buried http://www.nco.ncep....fs_pcp_192m.gif and for good measure, it manages to clip NE http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer//gfs/12/gfs_pcp204240_l.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 seasonal pattern ftw.. rainstorm buried http://www.nco.ncep....fs_pcp_192m.gif Normally, I'd say that's right where we want it at that time range but not this year. Of course, anywhere the models put it this year is not where we want it. lol. I'm going to be writing a blog on the potential tomorrow if there still is any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The GFS doesn't phase the two s/w's. Two monster s/w's just a couple hundred miles apart and the GFS keeps them seperate. Hence a decent storm, but no monster on the coast. So, we take it between the cheeks once again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Normally, I'd say that's right where we want it at that time range but not this year. Of course, anywhere the models put it this year is not where we want it. lol. I'm going to be writing a blog on the potential tomorrow if there still is any. If the Euro holds that might be something but it has gotten us excited in this range before.. And it's not even really the same storm at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I'll contribute my latest thoughts on the Hoffman storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I'll contribute my latest thoughts on the Hoffman storm... Yet you have the nerve to constantly browbeat everyone for the lack of "approved discourse"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The um..good news...is that it stays really freaking cold. Oh wait...what's that on the Gulf coast at 336hr? The REAL Hoffman storm!!?!?!?!??!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Yet you have the nerve to constantly browbeat everyone for the lack of "approved discourse"? 1 post vs. 100 Also, it makes a valid statement that this thing's still a ways out (we still have another storm to track before this one!), and no one should be making yes/no/despair calls yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Monday 18z temperature in DC and Baltimore per GFS is -10C or colder! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 GGEM looks even further south than 00Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 GGEM looks even further south than 00Z. When PSUHoffman said he wanted the 500H low to the south of us, I don't think he meant Mexico City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Like I said on 40S, I see only two scenarios here: weak OTS miss or a rainy coastal hugger. Either way we get screwed. We have seen both on the models already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 This storm had loser written all over it as soon as Ji named it. Leave the lame storm names with the tools up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 WTF is that thing over the Gulf of California? At least it's south of us, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 What have we done to deserve this. Can we sacrifice a few members here to fix this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 What have we done to deserve this. Can we sacrifice a few members here to fix this? It's just weather, dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 It's just weather, dude. I'm sorry' you're just too young to understand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 at least the gfs has support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 What have we done to deserve this. Can we sacrifice a few members here to fix this? Pack up the bus, send it off a cliff. Those who remain will rebuild an Utopian society. This storm still has 4-5 days to reclaim victory or dash all hopes and dreams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 IMO, it's too early to be talking about the amount of qpf, much less p-types for next week's possible event. I suspect that the 1/20 0z Euro is a western/warm outlier. The 1/20 12z GFS is probably an outlier to the opposite extreme. The ensembles have generally been somewhere between those two camps so to speak. I suspect a colder solution than the Euro and probably more significant one than the operational 12z GFS is more likely than either of the solutions on the operational guidance. Well thats right where you want to be. Don to the rescue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Well thats right where you want to be. Don to the rescue How much for Ottawa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 What have we done to deserve this. Can we sacrifice a few members here to fix this? The Jonah Storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The Jonah Storm? As long as it is not the Noah storm i will be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 It's only fitting that we wait and let the PSUHoffman decide when is the right time to write the obituary on this fantasy storm. If it wasn't named for him, he would probably already been on here trying to to kill it off. But hopefully it can revive itself within a day or two before he has to pull the plug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 So funny (Actually sad for snow lovers in DC AREA) that storms last year that started south came north. We would claim SE bias and by storm time be in the action. This year, the SE bias is not SE enough for most storms and they do not trend north! Such a pain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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