ravensrule Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I hate the RGEM maps. Is any of that snow? He just showed the precip type on the previous page at HR 48 it is all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I hate the RGEM maps. Is any of that snow? pages are going fast you missed this post http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/10601-psuhoffman-storm-the-pre-reckoning/page__view__findpost__p__354789 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I love when you talk dirty to me, what do you think the odds are of this Nam run coming close to actually verifying?. getting better by the minute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 What will the GFS have to say? It feels like it is the new Dr. NO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 *deep breath" GFS has been about 1/2 of the NAM. If you have some spirits I suggest you drink them now because you won't want to be sober in about 30 minutes. Either that or go to bed now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 pages are going fast you missed this post http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/10601-psuhoffman-storm-the-pre-reckoning/page__view__findpost__p__354789 Yes I did, thank you much, sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 getting better by the minute really, NAM is in its range its the range when it hit home runs last year now we have the RGEM right there with it, slamming us I'm gonna bust and I can't get any happier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 getting better by the minute If yourself and Wes are optimistic that is enough to get me very excited . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 All snow and the Virgina Blue Ridge get about 12"-16" Wednesday PM if the RGEM verifies as is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Mother of God Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 that's because they're hillbillies! Nice. Or transplants like me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I'm not looking forward to seeing the GFS, I wish it'd just blow up already, after the stunt it pulled for DEC26. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 really, NAM is in its range its the range when it hit home runs last year now we have the RGEM right there with it, slamming us I'm gonna bust and I can't get any happier i think we're locking in, but we got some more to get thru.. we'll see. snow is good for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I better get my shovels oiled up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 getting better by the minute Its seems like you are doing a pretty good job whipping your followers at Cap. Weather into a frenzy as well. lol. Why do If fear this may still not end well for any of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I love when you talk dirty to me, what do you think the odds are of this Nam run coming close to actually verifying?. The likelihood the general synoptic setup and placement of the upper level features is relatively high. The exact placement of the deformation band is tricky because if the upper PV max came in a tad weaker and/or stronger, the placement of the deformation band can change a lot even if the upper low takes the exact same track. These large CCB/deformation bands in tight, compact lows are very tricky for the models to simulate since they tend to have sharp cutoffs--so any tiny displacement can result in huge forecast differences. Snow probability is creeping up past the "likely" probability of 60% or higher, the exact NAM verbatim is still in the 40% or so category but going up fast since it is by no means a total outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 that's because they're hillbillies! Going by the NAM runs of 18z and 0z, it sure looks like the precip gets here much faster than originally forecast. I guess if the GFS and EC stay solid, WSW will be out by morning. By the way Mitch, I'll address that comment after we're out of storm mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 1970s songs ON and blasting - I'll leave them blasting thru Friday at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 All snow and the Virgina Blue Ridge get about 12"-16" Wednesday PM if the RGEM verifies as is. Thats it. I'm coming home tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The likelihood the general synoptic setup and placement of the upper level features is relatively high. The exact placement of the deformation band is tricky because if the upper PV max came in a tad weaker and/or stronger, the placement of the deformation band can change a lot even if the upper low takes the exact same track. These large CCB/deformation bands in tight, compact lows are very tricky for the models to simulate since they tend to have sharp cutoffs--so any tiny displacement can result in huge forecast differences. Snow probability is creeping up past the "likely" probability of 60% or higher, the exact NAM verbatim is still in the 40% or so category but going up fast since it is by no means a total outlier. Thank you, you are the best with your explanations . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbarney Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 My man. Wanna come to my superbowl party? Steak and Shrimp!!!!!!!! Steak and Shrimp!?! Are lurkers welcome? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 i think we're locking in, but we got some more to get thru.. we'll see. snow is good for everyone. NAM and RGEM together are pretty deadly, especially if GFS and Euro agree on the general setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Going by the NAM runs of 18z and 0z, it sure looks like the precip gets here much faster than originally forecast. I guess if the GFS and EC stay solid, WSW will be out by morning. By the way Mitch, I'll address that comment after we're out of storm mode. I trust you know I was kidding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 thundersnow! Ellinwood forecasted thunder snow the other day! AMAZING. Gutsy call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Ellinwood forecasted thunder snow the other day! AMAZING. Gutsy call. Ellinwood is starting to look like a genius with his call. If he nails this i will be very impressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 All snow and the Virgina Blue Ridge get about 12"-16" Wednesday PM if the RGEM verifies as is. This has "Jefferson County West Virginia Snow Chase" written all over it. Lucky bastids Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Color map... this is absurd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I trust you know I was kidding. The hillbilly is going to give it to you when we get back into weenie mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 here's another version of the RGEM precip type maps 36 hrs and 48 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 You shall know this is a lock when weathafella comes in and starts a thread in OUR Mid Atl subforum, aka 2009-2010 Winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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